Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
You know it's bad when I'm excited to talk about rain. Since August 20, my own backyard here in central CT has received a paltry .90" of rain! After months without meaningful rainfall overall, the pattern change that I previewed about a week ago is finally on the way, and it will bring an upper level bowling ball that will arrive with rain, colder temperatures, and for some--the real possibility of first flakes.
You know it's bad when I'm excited to talk about rain. Since August 20, my own backyard here in central CT has received a paltry .90" of rain! After months without meaningful rainfall overall, the pattern change that I previewed about a week ago is finally on the way, and it will bring an upper level bowling ball that will arrive with rain, colder temperatures, and for some--the real possibility of first flakes.
The Pattern Change
Above is the 12z European Ensemble (EPS) with a northern hemisphere view of 500mb. To date, our exceptionally persistent pattern in simplest terms has featured strong ridging over the eastern U.S., which has kept storm systems from developing or getting close to the region in the last few months and kept us much warmer than normal.
This stagnant pattern is finally breaking down because of a wholesale hemispheric change, starting in Pacific which is a huge driver of our pattern especially as we head into winter. Normally we see coastal storms try to develop this time of year. These are early season nor'easters that bring us the bulk of our rainfall in the fall, as opposed to frontal passages and thunderstorms bringing us the bulk of our rain in the summer. The changes in the Pacific will dislodge more cold from the north and bring us more seasonable conditions, and with it push out the persistent ridging at least for now.
The result should be the end to well above normal temperatures and that start of a much more active (read: stormy) pattern as we finish out the last half of November. There are indications that this kind of pattern could continue into early December, but we're not looking that far ahead yet.
Above is the 12z European Ensemble (EPS) with a northern hemisphere view of 500mb. To date, our exceptionally persistent pattern in simplest terms has featured strong ridging over the eastern U.S., which has kept storm systems from developing or getting close to the region in the last few months and kept us much warmer than normal.
This stagnant pattern is finally breaking down because of a wholesale hemispheric change, starting in Pacific which is a huge driver of our pattern especially as we head into winter. Normally we see coastal storms try to develop this time of year. These are early season nor'easters that bring us the bulk of our rainfall in the fall, as opposed to frontal passages and thunderstorms bringing us the bulk of our rain in the summer. The changes in the Pacific will dislodge more cold from the north and bring us more seasonable conditions, and with it push out the persistent ridging at least for now.
The result should be the end to well above normal temperatures and that start of a much more active (read: stormy) pattern as we finish out the last half of November. There are indications that this kind of pattern could continue into early December, but we're not looking that far ahead yet.
Above: the 18z EPS with a zoomed in look at 500mb. Note how ridging dominated our weekend and even into early next week, but a big storm system moves through to reshuffle everything in a big way by late week. This is the first stage that we will see in the pattern change, even though things are subtly changing before this storm arrives.
Monday-Wednesday
The start of the week continues with more of the same in terms of our sensible weather. Tomorrow did look like it had a chance of bring rain showers at one point, but much like the failed retrograding storm offshore, the rain chances dried up. Tomorrow starts out cloudy, but should remain dry and warmer than normal with highs in the low 60s. If we're able to get some clearing, we could see temps top out in spots in the mid 60s.
Tuesday should be slightly cooler in the wake of the weak Monday system with highs in the upper 50s, but we should have more sunny conditions. This continues into Wednesday, but our storm system will be approaching by then with increasing clouds. Right now I think the rain holds off into Thursday, but we can't rule out some showers starting very late Wednesday.
Thursday-Friday
Beneficial rain should arrive on Thursday, when our storm arrives. The models have been consistent in showing a surface low developing, potentially a strong one, just to our south and bring moderate to heavy rain at times, particularly Thursday morning. It could be breezy as well, but I am not expecting power issues.
From there, precipitation should become more showery in nature, and our upper low will then drive in colder temperatures aloft and at the surface. By Friday, it could be quite a cold day for this time of year (where normal highs are still in the low 50s), and higher elevations could very well see their first flakes of the season. For now, I do not expect accumulation.
Here are the latest depictions from the Euro and GFS operational models. The main takeaways here are:
1) There's a good chance for meaningful rain and
2) Some much colder air is likely to be here late Thursday and possibly into the weekend depending on how where exactly the upper level low tracks.
This rain won't come close to ending our drought, but if we can maximize our potential and see widespread totals of .75-2" of rain, that will be a good start. For now, I think most end up with between .5-1.5" of rain.
GFS
Monday-Wednesday
The start of the week continues with more of the same in terms of our sensible weather. Tomorrow did look like it had a chance of bring rain showers at one point, but much like the failed retrograding storm offshore, the rain chances dried up. Tomorrow starts out cloudy, but should remain dry and warmer than normal with highs in the low 60s. If we're able to get some clearing, we could see temps top out in spots in the mid 60s.
Tuesday should be slightly cooler in the wake of the weak Monday system with highs in the upper 50s, but we should have more sunny conditions. This continues into Wednesday, but our storm system will be approaching by then with increasing clouds. Right now I think the rain holds off into Thursday, but we can't rule out some showers starting very late Wednesday.
Thursday-Friday
Beneficial rain should arrive on Thursday, when our storm arrives. The models have been consistent in showing a surface low developing, potentially a strong one, just to our south and bring moderate to heavy rain at times, particularly Thursday morning. It could be breezy as well, but I am not expecting power issues.
From there, precipitation should become more showery in nature, and our upper low will then drive in colder temperatures aloft and at the surface. By Friday, it could be quite a cold day for this time of year (where normal highs are still in the low 50s), and higher elevations could very well see their first flakes of the season. For now, I do not expect accumulation.
Here are the latest depictions from the Euro and GFS operational models. The main takeaways here are:
1) There's a good chance for meaningful rain and
2) Some much colder air is likely to be here late Thursday and possibly into the weekend depending on how where exactly the upper level low tracks.
This rain won't come close to ending our drought, but if we can maximize our potential and see widespread totals of .75-2" of rain, that will be a good start. For now, I think most end up with between .5-1.5" of rain.
GFS
Euro
Saturday-Sunday
As you can see above, after the main rain storm departs late Thursday we will be dealing with the showers of the upper level low and colder air filtering into the region. Saturday is this period where there could be more widespread flurries and snow showers in lower elevations, especially if there is left over moisture. This is non-accumulating stuff as we are going to be above freezing, but it would be a reminder that the seasons are changing.
By Sunday, we should be clearing out and warming back up to more seasonable temperatures, even if slightly below normal overall in terms of daytime highs.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy to start with gradual clearing. Highs in the low 60s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and slightly cooler. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Wednesday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of showers late 20%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times especially early. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 90%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain and snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
As you can see above, after the main rain storm departs late Thursday we will be dealing with the showers of the upper level low and colder air filtering into the region. Saturday is this period where there could be more widespread flurries and snow showers in lower elevations, especially if there is left over moisture. This is non-accumulating stuff as we are going to be above freezing, but it would be a reminder that the seasons are changing.
By Sunday, we should be clearing out and warming back up to more seasonable temperatures, even if slightly below normal overall in terms of daytime highs.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy to start with gradual clearing. Highs in the low 60s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and slightly cooler. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Wednesday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of showers late 20%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times especially early. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 90%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain and snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
