As you can feel outside today, the pattern is slowly beginning to change as seasonal climo changes and we leave the "dead of winter".
A couple very near term notes first: Wind gusts need to be increased thru this afternoon, as frequent gusts in the 30-35 MPH range are occurring with a fropa. In addition, some sprinkles will occur, esp N of the Merritt Pkwy, but really could occur anywhere in the state w/this feature. This front is of Pac origin, so other than a chilly night, cold temps are really not expected w/this feature.
That cold front is currently over the Lehigh Valley and just W of the NYS Thruway, so it should enter the state this afternoon and be clear by dinner time.
Tonight: Went a little below guidance on temps tonight, w/fresh cold air advection. Lows generally near 30, except upper 20s in the NW Hills. Sheltered valleys could cool more, but that will all depend on when/how much winds decouple.
Tomorrow: Another sunny and pleasant day for the area. As I mentioned, any cold air advection is very brief and only tonight. So followed guidance very closely for highs tomorrow. Look for highs generally in the upper 40s.
Tomorrow night/Sat: Sat will be warm, but exactly how warm is the big ? and temps are a bit tricky. There are two reasons temps are a bit tricky. First is timing of a strong Arctic fropa. This is the biggest question. The earlier the fropa, the less warm it will be. The second big ? is temps along the S coast. Winds will likely have a southerly component ahead of the front, which would be blowing off a frigid LI Sound. This could hamper temps significantly along the S coast, esp the further E u are, where the Sound is wider. For now, I have most highs in the upper 40s, with low to mid 50s in the I 91 corridor, which means I went under guidance most places, but close to guidance along I 91. Similar to today, that front does not have a lot of moisture to work with. A sprinkle is possible (maybe even transitioning to sleet and snow showers), but I do not have enough confid to add to the fcst right now.
Long Term Summary- The two main events in the long term are a possible coastal low Sun and a big Great Lakes low on Thu-Fri, w/fair wx in between.
For Sunday, this coastal low will likely be pretty far out to sea, if latest model consensus is correct. But it is still close enough to watch, and even as is, could bring some light snow to the S coast. For now, low POPs (30%) will be in the fcst for the S coast, w/no mention anywhere else. Will also mention that any accums would be 1" or less. We are close enough now. For high temps, I went a few deg below guidance due to clouds, and any potential light snow along the S coast. Highs will generally be near 30, except upper 20s in the NW Hills. If the coastal low trends further W, then these temps may be too warm.
For Monday, went close to guidance on temps. For now, w/the coastal low progged to be too far offshore to produce widespread snow, I did not incorporate snow cover into the temp fcst. Cold either way, w/highs only 20-25!
For Tuesday, went right w/guidance again, w/no discernable reason that it would be wrong. High pressure more overhead, so temps moderate a bit. Highs generally 30-35.
For Wednesday, once again riding the temp guidance pretty closely, without any real reason to go against it. We continue to warm up, with highs 40-45, except cooler in the NW hills.
For Thursday, clouds increase ahead of the next sys. However, we should stay dry, esp during the day, so no pcpn was included in the fcst at this time. W/increasing clouds and southerly flow off the Sound, I went a bit lower than guidance, with high temps mostly in the upper 40s, although it could be colder than that along the S coast and warmer than that inland. I just didn't want to get too cute on day 7 temps.
Only one graphic is needed today, since the late-week sys is just outside our fcst period. This is the GFSm valid Sun morn. You can see that the storm is too far out to sea for anything appreciable here, but it wouldn't take a whole lot to bring measurable snow into parts of the state.