Disc: The humidity will go first. That will gradually leave tonight into tmrw, then the heat will go next week, as we gradually slip into a more typical pattern for late fall.
Currently: A weak cold front was located over the area. This cold front is noticeable only because the winds pick up a bit behind the front, which helps scour out the fog and low clouds. As the day progresses, gradual clearing should occur from N to S.
Tonight: I don't see any reason to go a significant way from guidance, one way or the other, but I will probably hedge toward the warmer guidance, since we'll still have a good amount of humidity around. Expect low temps generally in the upper 50s.
Tomorrow: A weak impulse approaches the area during the day. Since any moisture associated w/this should dissipate to our S and W and no model is producing any measurable, I will not include any mention of precipitation in the forecast. W/light onshore flow, I have done two things to temps... First, I have gone a few degrees under guidance. Second, I've made temps more uniform across the state, due to the onshore flow. Look for highs generally 60-65, although it is not out of the question for some places along I 91 to exceed 65.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: The main concern this period is a cold frontal passage during the day Saturday. The cold front really does not have a lot of moisture associated with it, but it is a very strong cold front. So there is a pro to including precip in the fcst, as well as a con! After examining the front a bit further, I have seen one more negative for pcpn in the area, and that is that most of the area wl see the fropa before noon. This is the most stable time of the day and should negate any significant pcpn. So I have declined to mention pcpn in the fcst. Temperatures will also be tricky, given the time of the frontal passage. Temps could get off to a quick start and then level off or even fall a bit late in the day. Because of this, and a faster fropa, I have gone a cpl deg blo temp gdnc. So xpct high temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): A lot more unsettled weather in the long term than we have seen recently. First off, Sunday will be quite chilly, as we'll be behind Saturday's strong cold front. Temps may be a few degrees warmer than originally thought, because there could be a bit more sun. Even so, it will be chilly. I have gone a cpl deg warmer than gdnc to compensate for sun, and am now calling for mid to upper 50s.
A warm front then approaches on Monday. Across SW CT, this should produce an area of light rain during the AM hours on Mon, then some clearing should be expected, with perhaps another shower before dawn on Tues. Acrs Ern CT, light rain showers and drizzle could linger most of the day Mon and only a few hr break is xpctd later Mon eve into ery Tues, as the front slowly traverses the state. I have gone 3 to 5 degrees below temperature guidance, due to the fact that skies generally clear slower behind warm front than guidance would portray. Therefore, expect highs generally in the upper 50s.
Most of the state should be dry during the daylight hours on Tuesday. The exception is far E CT, where some light rain showers could linger until mid morning or so. I have gone close to guidance on temps. This suggests highs in the upper 50s, with a few low 60s possible in lower elevations west of I 91.
On Wednesday, another strong cold front approaches. There is quite a bit of disagreement amongst the NWP solutions w/this sys. There could be a few hrs where it does nothing, prob centered ard midday or ery aftn. Hwvr, due to large mdl diffs at this range, I think the correct wording is "pds of ra" attm. I did not mention t-storms, as most of the instab remains SW of the state. Temperatures are also a bit tricky. First, it will rain most of the day, but if there is a break around midday and any sun does come out, temps could briefly surge. Secondly, there is a pretty good surge of WAA ahead of the front, and mdls often underestimate this. Therefore, I hv gone cls to, if not a ltl abv, gdnc. Highs shud be nr 60, but 60-65 in Wrn CT, where there is the highest chc of some breaks of sun.
The new GFS has introduced another wrinkle for next Thursday. There have been indications in guidance of a potential coastal low at the end of next week. Yesterday, most gdnc shunted this low well out to sea, due to a stg high to the north. The new GFS then ran tda and forms the low alg the front, which gives heavy rain to the area mainly on Thu. The new Canadian mdl is not a lot different, if not a few hrs slower and further NW w/the storm track. Therefore, for Thu's forecast, I will trend it much wetter, especially in the afternoon and evening. Rain could be heavy or even very heavy at times if the models have a clue. As for temperatures, I went close to guidance, given variations in storm track. A GFS track would be colder, a GGEM track warmer. So I split the diff and I have mid to upper 50s for my temp forecast.
Looking deeper into the long range, a largely below normal temperature pattern looks to take hold across the vast majority of the United States, especially from the Rockies on East.. get ready for very different weather!
Now, let's take a look at some systems expected to affect the area in the next week or so. We'll look at Monday's warm front and Wednesday's cold front. I won't look at the late week sys yet, since there is too much uncertainty.
Here is the map for Monday's warm front. Note the slow progression of the frontal system into our state. We're getting into the season where warm fronts progress more slowly.
Currently: A weak cold front was located over the area. This cold front is noticeable only because the winds pick up a bit behind the front, which helps scour out the fog and low clouds. As the day progresses, gradual clearing should occur from N to S.
Tonight: I don't see any reason to go a significant way from guidance, one way or the other, but I will probably hedge toward the warmer guidance, since we'll still have a good amount of humidity around. Expect low temps generally in the upper 50s.
Tomorrow: A weak impulse approaches the area during the day. Since any moisture associated w/this should dissipate to our S and W and no model is producing any measurable, I will not include any mention of precipitation in the forecast. W/light onshore flow, I have done two things to temps... First, I have gone a few degrees under guidance. Second, I've made temps more uniform across the state, due to the onshore flow. Look for highs generally 60-65, although it is not out of the question for some places along I 91 to exceed 65.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: The main concern this period is a cold frontal passage during the day Saturday. The cold front really does not have a lot of moisture associated with it, but it is a very strong cold front. So there is a pro to including precip in the fcst, as well as a con! After examining the front a bit further, I have seen one more negative for pcpn in the area, and that is that most of the area wl see the fropa before noon. This is the most stable time of the day and should negate any significant pcpn. So I have declined to mention pcpn in the fcst. Temperatures will also be tricky, given the time of the frontal passage. Temps could get off to a quick start and then level off or even fall a bit late in the day. Because of this, and a faster fropa, I have gone a cpl deg blo temp gdnc. So xpct high temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): A lot more unsettled weather in the long term than we have seen recently. First off, Sunday will be quite chilly, as we'll be behind Saturday's strong cold front. Temps may be a few degrees warmer than originally thought, because there could be a bit more sun. Even so, it will be chilly. I have gone a cpl deg warmer than gdnc to compensate for sun, and am now calling for mid to upper 50s.
A warm front then approaches on Monday. Across SW CT, this should produce an area of light rain during the AM hours on Mon, then some clearing should be expected, with perhaps another shower before dawn on Tues. Acrs Ern CT, light rain showers and drizzle could linger most of the day Mon and only a few hr break is xpctd later Mon eve into ery Tues, as the front slowly traverses the state. I have gone 3 to 5 degrees below temperature guidance, due to the fact that skies generally clear slower behind warm front than guidance would portray. Therefore, expect highs generally in the upper 50s.
Most of the state should be dry during the daylight hours on Tuesday. The exception is far E CT, where some light rain showers could linger until mid morning or so. I have gone close to guidance on temps. This suggests highs in the upper 50s, with a few low 60s possible in lower elevations west of I 91.
On Wednesday, another strong cold front approaches. There is quite a bit of disagreement amongst the NWP solutions w/this sys. There could be a few hrs where it does nothing, prob centered ard midday or ery aftn. Hwvr, due to large mdl diffs at this range, I think the correct wording is "pds of ra" attm. I did not mention t-storms, as most of the instab remains SW of the state. Temperatures are also a bit tricky. First, it will rain most of the day, but if there is a break around midday and any sun does come out, temps could briefly surge. Secondly, there is a pretty good surge of WAA ahead of the front, and mdls often underestimate this. Therefore, I hv gone cls to, if not a ltl abv, gdnc. Highs shud be nr 60, but 60-65 in Wrn CT, where there is the highest chc of some breaks of sun.
The new GFS has introduced another wrinkle for next Thursday. There have been indications in guidance of a potential coastal low at the end of next week. Yesterday, most gdnc shunted this low well out to sea, due to a stg high to the north. The new GFS then ran tda and forms the low alg the front, which gives heavy rain to the area mainly on Thu. The new Canadian mdl is not a lot different, if not a few hrs slower and further NW w/the storm track. Therefore, for Thu's forecast, I will trend it much wetter, especially in the afternoon and evening. Rain could be heavy or even very heavy at times if the models have a clue. As for temperatures, I went close to guidance, given variations in storm track. A GFS track would be colder, a GGEM track warmer. So I split the diff and I have mid to upper 50s for my temp forecast.
Looking deeper into the long range, a largely below normal temperature pattern looks to take hold across the vast majority of the United States, especially from the Rockies on East.. get ready for very different weather!
Now, let's take a look at some systems expected to affect the area in the next week or so. We'll look at Monday's warm front and Wednesday's cold front. I won't look at the late week sys yet, since there is too much uncertainty.
Here is the map for Monday's warm front. Note the slow progression of the frontal system into our state. We're getting into the season where warm fronts progress more slowly.
Now here is Wednesday's cold front. Note the potential for a prolonged stormy event, as depicted here, by the multiple lows and slow-moving nature of this system.
That's all for now! See you again next week!
-GP!
-GP!
