Disc: As we move forward in time, the pattern looks more and more wintry, literally by the day. As far as pinning down individual storm threats, we'll see, as those will be a function of timing and individual vorts. That will be discussed more in depth later in the disc.
Currently: Not much going on. High pressure over NC ruling our wx. Low pressure near Cape Race, NF keeping a slight breeze going.
Tonight: A colder night than what we've seen. Skies clear and that should allow temps to fall. Winds may stay up a bit, preventing great radiational cooling. Therefore, I stayed pretty close to temp guidance. Expect lows of 20-25.
Tomorrow: A fair day. Temp guidance looks perfect. Expect highs of 35-40. A few places in the I 91 corridor may exceed 40.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Slight cold air advection, so temps could be a deg or so under guidance, but guidance generally looks good. A coastal low passes offshore, too far away to do anything here. Wl need to watch if it gets a touch closer to kick up winds or increase clouds. The former is more likely than the latter. Expect high temps in the mid to upper 30s on Sat.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): For Sunday, another fair day. Once again, temp guidance looks perfect. Expect highs generally in the upper 30s, although a few places along I 91 may exceed 40.
Monday: Not much diff than Sun. Clouds could incr late in the day.
Tue-Wed: Models have backed off on the potential coastal low. With the GGEM and ECMWF taking a coherent low out to sea and the GFS barely having any wave at all. However, just 12 hours ago, the general consensus was to have a pretty good snowstorm over the state. I do not like to flip and flop every model run. Therefore, this is still a "period of interest", altho for the moment, I have to treat it as a low probability event, and we can always bring it closer with time. Interesting to note that the NBM does still avg 2" of snow across the state, indicating there are still ENS members that give the area a good snowfall.
For now, the fcst will be treated as if the storm misses, since that is today's consensus. (But please do keep in mind, that can change fast.) For temps, wl just run w/the guidance, which keeps consistency w/the past few days.
Thursday: Whatever happens on Tue and Wed, this could be a one-day interval, before another northern stream threat affects the area and possibly reforms somewhere near or off the coast. Since that's beyond day 7, I'll let other crews handle it. Anyway, Thu should be fair and a deg or so warmer. Once again, I have no problem w/guidance and it is being followed.
Long Range: Cold and potentially stormy, although stormy vs not stormy will be highly dependent on storm track. The main thing that is certain right now is that it will get increasingly cold, and by the 4th week of this month, we could see true Arctic chill over the state.
No need for graphics today, as I can't even think of anything to put in here, with nothing going on.
That's all for now! I'll see you next week!
-GP!
Currently: Not much going on. High pressure over NC ruling our wx. Low pressure near Cape Race, NF keeping a slight breeze going.
Tonight: A colder night than what we've seen. Skies clear and that should allow temps to fall. Winds may stay up a bit, preventing great radiational cooling. Therefore, I stayed pretty close to temp guidance. Expect lows of 20-25.
Tomorrow: A fair day. Temp guidance looks perfect. Expect highs of 35-40. A few places in the I 91 corridor may exceed 40.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Slight cold air advection, so temps could be a deg or so under guidance, but guidance generally looks good. A coastal low passes offshore, too far away to do anything here. Wl need to watch if it gets a touch closer to kick up winds or increase clouds. The former is more likely than the latter. Expect high temps in the mid to upper 30s on Sat.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): For Sunday, another fair day. Once again, temp guidance looks perfect. Expect highs generally in the upper 30s, although a few places along I 91 may exceed 40.
Monday: Not much diff than Sun. Clouds could incr late in the day.
Tue-Wed: Models have backed off on the potential coastal low. With the GGEM and ECMWF taking a coherent low out to sea and the GFS barely having any wave at all. However, just 12 hours ago, the general consensus was to have a pretty good snowstorm over the state. I do not like to flip and flop every model run. Therefore, this is still a "period of interest", altho for the moment, I have to treat it as a low probability event, and we can always bring it closer with time. Interesting to note that the NBM does still avg 2" of snow across the state, indicating there are still ENS members that give the area a good snowfall.
For now, the fcst will be treated as if the storm misses, since that is today's consensus. (But please do keep in mind, that can change fast.) For temps, wl just run w/the guidance, which keeps consistency w/the past few days.
Thursday: Whatever happens on Tue and Wed, this could be a one-day interval, before another northern stream threat affects the area and possibly reforms somewhere near or off the coast. Since that's beyond day 7, I'll let other crews handle it. Anyway, Thu should be fair and a deg or so warmer. Once again, I have no problem w/guidance and it is being followed.
Long Range: Cold and potentially stormy, although stormy vs not stormy will be highly dependent on storm track. The main thing that is certain right now is that it will get increasingly cold, and by the 4th week of this month, we could see true Arctic chill over the state.
No need for graphics today, as I can't even think of anything to put in here, with nothing going on.
That's all for now! I'll see you next week!
-GP!
