We will prob go thru one more fcst cycle w/o a whole lot of spring wx before we break out as we head into the middle of May.
A sfc low was currently analyzed over Long Island, w/a dissipating cold front over the Alleghenies. Whatever is left of this front will move thru this eve. This front does not have any cold air behind it, but will dry the air mass out.
For tonight, due to the init temps being 2-5 deg too warm, I lowered the NBM by that much. Lows will not drop a whole lot from where they are right now. Expect lows to be in the mid to upper 40s and maybe begin rising toward dawn.
For tomorrow, a beautiful spring day is on tap. Guidance temps look relatively good, so no major chgs were made. Generally upper 60s across the state.
Tomorrow night/Fri: Models generally coming into better agreement w/potential for coastal low. Will be expanding likely pops to I 84 and add heavy at times and gusty winds to the S coast. Chc pops have been maintained for the far N,w/concern as too how far N the pcpn shield gets. Light rain develops during the day Fri, becoming more likely as the day goes on. W/onshore flow and developing rain, I have significantly lowered model guidance temps. Look for highs only in the mid 50s.
Long Term- Sat and beyond: The only real headache will be Sat's nor'easter potential. After that, the only concern is temps, which will likely be hampered by onshore flow.
For Sat, rain heavy at times early for S coast, then rain likely until aftn. Rain likely in the morn the rest of the state, except a chc of rain in the morn far N. Went way below guidance temps for much of the state, but close to guidance far N, where it may not rain at all. Highs near 50, except 50-55 far N. Windy for much of the state, esp the farther S you go.
For Sun, stays windy, esp the farther S you go. Guidance temps don't look too bad and do seem to capture the onshore flow pretty well. Highs near 60 for most, maybe approaching 65 in the I 91 corridor.
For Mon, still gusty breezes possible along the S coast. Guidance looks good and captures this well, so highs generally within a few deg of 65, with warmest readings inland valleys and coolest readings on the S coast.
For Tue, onshore flow, but lighter wind. Unclear on temps, because if winds are any stronger than progged, we get colder than fcst. I went a bit below guidance to be conservative and left temps the same as Mon.
For Wed, very tricky temp fcst. Models are all over the place w/wind dir and speed and will have a big impact on temps. Some models actually intensify the onshore flow, which would mean that temps are cooler than Tue. Other models have a light onshore flow which, given upper level temps would mean some areas are flirting with 80. For now, I used a mix of continuity and conservatism to generate the new Wed fcst. I introduced a wide range of temps, mostly under guidance for now, w/low 70s along the I 91 corridor to mid 60s along the S coast.
The longer range is finally beginning to show signs of a pattern break down, which would translate to more spring like wx across the Mid-Atl and SNE.
Only one graphic today, and it will be to show the nor'easter during the height of the storm, around dawn Sat. You can look at this map and see why it is a complicated fcst, w/the gradient being so tight, and right near our state.
A sfc low was currently analyzed over Long Island, w/a dissipating cold front over the Alleghenies. Whatever is left of this front will move thru this eve. This front does not have any cold air behind it, but will dry the air mass out.
For tonight, due to the init temps being 2-5 deg too warm, I lowered the NBM by that much. Lows will not drop a whole lot from where they are right now. Expect lows to be in the mid to upper 40s and maybe begin rising toward dawn.
For tomorrow, a beautiful spring day is on tap. Guidance temps look relatively good, so no major chgs were made. Generally upper 60s across the state.
Tomorrow night/Fri: Models generally coming into better agreement w/potential for coastal low. Will be expanding likely pops to I 84 and add heavy at times and gusty winds to the S coast. Chc pops have been maintained for the far N,w/concern as too how far N the pcpn shield gets. Light rain develops during the day Fri, becoming more likely as the day goes on. W/onshore flow and developing rain, I have significantly lowered model guidance temps. Look for highs only in the mid 50s.
Long Term- Sat and beyond: The only real headache will be Sat's nor'easter potential. After that, the only concern is temps, which will likely be hampered by onshore flow.
For Sat, rain heavy at times early for S coast, then rain likely until aftn. Rain likely in the morn the rest of the state, except a chc of rain in the morn far N. Went way below guidance temps for much of the state, but close to guidance far N, where it may not rain at all. Highs near 50, except 50-55 far N. Windy for much of the state, esp the farther S you go.
For Sun, stays windy, esp the farther S you go. Guidance temps don't look too bad and do seem to capture the onshore flow pretty well. Highs near 60 for most, maybe approaching 65 in the I 91 corridor.
For Mon, still gusty breezes possible along the S coast. Guidance looks good and captures this well, so highs generally within a few deg of 65, with warmest readings inland valleys and coolest readings on the S coast.
For Tue, onshore flow, but lighter wind. Unclear on temps, because if winds are any stronger than progged, we get colder than fcst. I went a bit below guidance to be conservative and left temps the same as Mon.
For Wed, very tricky temp fcst. Models are all over the place w/wind dir and speed and will have a big impact on temps. Some models actually intensify the onshore flow, which would mean that temps are cooler than Tue. Other models have a light onshore flow which, given upper level temps would mean some areas are flirting with 80. For now, I used a mix of continuity and conservatism to generate the new Wed fcst. I introduced a wide range of temps, mostly under guidance for now, w/low 70s along the I 91 corridor to mid 60s along the S coast.
The longer range is finally beginning to show signs of a pattern break down, which would translate to more spring like wx across the Mid-Atl and SNE.
Only one graphic today, and it will be to show the nor'easter during the height of the storm, around dawn Sat. You can look at this map and see why it is a complicated fcst, w/the gradient being so tight, and right near our state.
Anyway, that's all for now, see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
