Disc: If one only looked at the 500 MB chart today, one would think that there would be widespread temps in the 80s across the NE US this week. However, of course, wx occurs at all levels of the atmosphere, from the tropopause all the way to the sfc. And that pesky ocean low- the one that gave lots of rain to the S coast- is still spinning offshore and creating temp problems in our area.
Tonight: Will have to watch for a cloud bank rolling in off the ocean/LIS, esp for S coast. Because of this, there are not ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight. So I went close to guidance on temps, w/low to mid 50s expected for much of the state.
Tomorrow: I went way below guidance on temps. Due to sfc wind diagrams, I feel we get socked into a cloud bank most of the day, along w/onshore flow. This is not a high-confid fcst, since it is possible that we break out into the sun for a few hours, and that could destroy this fcst. However, clouds showed up today that were not fcst at all, so that incrs my confidence on clouds tmrw. I think highs generally stay around 60, but maybe hit 65 along the I 91 corridor.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: Conf incrs here that more clouds/ocean flow will persist. This is on all modeling now and is trending up. So I went way under guidance temps again, but introduced a wider spread, with some mid to even upper 60s near Bradley Field, but socked in the mid to upper 50s along the S coast. In addition, there will be areas of patchy drizzle/light showers possible, esp Srn areas, in the aftn.
Long Term: Main problems are onshore flow Sat, when and if it breaks, and a round of showers and storms along a cold front Mon.
Sat: Onshore flow/clouds/drizzle, light showers, etc will continue for at least the 1st 1/2 of the day. When we clear out will have a big impact on temps. If we clear out a cpl hrs earlier than I fcst, temps will likely be a few deg warmer. On the other hand,. if we clear out a cpl hrs later than I fcst, temps will likely be a few deg cooler. I went under guidance by a bit, but not as much as the prev 2 days. So I think we'll get near 70, w/mid 60s or so on the S coast, to maybe a few 74's or so along I 91.
Sun: Prob get a decent day btwn sys now. Models show nice land breezes and really keep any precip from the approaching frontal sys until later at night. I went a bit below temp guidance, because a clear day is a new development in modeling and I don't want to get too hung up on 1 solution when we're still 4 days out. But even so, I have temps similar to Sat's +2 deg or so.
Mon: We may have a period of showers Later Sun night into early Mon morn w/the warm frontal passage. Then Mon clears out. SW flow ahead of cold front should allow warm and humid air to surge N into the state. Went near guidance for most, maybe a deg or two warmer in spots, as models sometimes throw up spurious showers ahead of a cold front. Highs generally mid 70s, although the S coast prob struggles to get past 70 and someone prob approaches 80 inland valleys. It is too far out to say, but it is possible that some t-storms along the front could be strong!
Tue: Nice day behind the front. Went a bit below guidance, but only by a deg or two, w/good cold air advection. Gusty winds possible w/cold air advection too. Temps should be more uniform, as onshore flow finally gets wiped out! Highs generally upper 60s, with a few of the usual warm spots passing 70 deg.
Wed: Another beauty. Again went a bit below temp guidance w/cold air advection continuing. Winds gradually diminish. Highs generally mid 60s, with a few upper 60s in the usual warm spots.
Depending on wind dir, May 21-24 could be a warm period, but it once again looks to get washed out by a pretty strong cold front near the end of that pd. At least the pattern finally resembles one of mid-late spring now!
For today's graphics, I can't really find one that shows much of the onshore flow stuff Fri-Sat. The reason is because models don't really show drizzle well, as they focus on measurable precip. For the sake of preserving a good pic for the general public, I really don't feel like going into a discord about wind barbs. So I will post a map only of Mon's t-storm potential. The map I am posting actually shows a good squall line pretty much right along I 84. Let's keep that in the back of our minds and see how it does!
Tonight: Will have to watch for a cloud bank rolling in off the ocean/LIS, esp for S coast. Because of this, there are not ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight. So I went close to guidance on temps, w/low to mid 50s expected for much of the state.
Tomorrow: I went way below guidance on temps. Due to sfc wind diagrams, I feel we get socked into a cloud bank most of the day, along w/onshore flow. This is not a high-confid fcst, since it is possible that we break out into the sun for a few hours, and that could destroy this fcst. However, clouds showed up today that were not fcst at all, so that incrs my confidence on clouds tmrw. I think highs generally stay around 60, but maybe hit 65 along the I 91 corridor.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: Conf incrs here that more clouds/ocean flow will persist. This is on all modeling now and is trending up. So I went way under guidance temps again, but introduced a wider spread, with some mid to even upper 60s near Bradley Field, but socked in the mid to upper 50s along the S coast. In addition, there will be areas of patchy drizzle/light showers possible, esp Srn areas, in the aftn.
Long Term: Main problems are onshore flow Sat, when and if it breaks, and a round of showers and storms along a cold front Mon.
Sat: Onshore flow/clouds/drizzle, light showers, etc will continue for at least the 1st 1/2 of the day. When we clear out will have a big impact on temps. If we clear out a cpl hrs earlier than I fcst, temps will likely be a few deg warmer. On the other hand,. if we clear out a cpl hrs later than I fcst, temps will likely be a few deg cooler. I went under guidance by a bit, but not as much as the prev 2 days. So I think we'll get near 70, w/mid 60s or so on the S coast, to maybe a few 74's or so along I 91.
Sun: Prob get a decent day btwn sys now. Models show nice land breezes and really keep any precip from the approaching frontal sys until later at night. I went a bit below temp guidance, because a clear day is a new development in modeling and I don't want to get too hung up on 1 solution when we're still 4 days out. But even so, I have temps similar to Sat's +2 deg or so.
Mon: We may have a period of showers Later Sun night into early Mon morn w/the warm frontal passage. Then Mon clears out. SW flow ahead of cold front should allow warm and humid air to surge N into the state. Went near guidance for most, maybe a deg or two warmer in spots, as models sometimes throw up spurious showers ahead of a cold front. Highs generally mid 70s, although the S coast prob struggles to get past 70 and someone prob approaches 80 inland valleys. It is too far out to say, but it is possible that some t-storms along the front could be strong!
Tue: Nice day behind the front. Went a bit below guidance, but only by a deg or two, w/good cold air advection. Gusty winds possible w/cold air advection too. Temps should be more uniform, as onshore flow finally gets wiped out! Highs generally upper 60s, with a few of the usual warm spots passing 70 deg.
Wed: Another beauty. Again went a bit below temp guidance w/cold air advection continuing. Winds gradually diminish. Highs generally mid 60s, with a few upper 60s in the usual warm spots.
Depending on wind dir, May 21-24 could be a warm period, but it once again looks to get washed out by a pretty strong cold front near the end of that pd. At least the pattern finally resembles one of mid-late spring now!
For today's graphics, I can't really find one that shows much of the onshore flow stuff Fri-Sat. The reason is because models don't really show drizzle well, as they focus on measurable precip. For the sake of preserving a good pic for the general public, I really don't feel like going into a discord about wind barbs. So I will post a map only of Mon's t-storm potential. The map I am posting actually shows a good squall line pretty much right along I 84. Let's keep that in the back of our minds and see how it does!
Anyway, that's all for now, see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
