Tonight: Will have to watch for a cloud bank rolling in off the ocean/LIS, esp for S coast. Because of this, there are not ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight. So I went close to guidance on temps, w/low to mid 50s expected for much of the state.
Tomorrow: I went way below guidance on temps. Due to sfc wind diagrams, I feel we get socked into a cloud bank most of the day, along w/onshore flow. This is not a high-confid fcst, since it is possible that we break out into the sun for a few hours, and that could destroy this fcst. However, clouds showed up today that were not fcst at all, so that incrs my confidence on clouds tmrw. I think highs generally stay around 60, but maybe hit 65 along the I 91 corridor.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: Conf incrs here that more clouds/ocean flow will persist. This is on all modeling now and is trending up. So I went way under guidance temps again, but introduced a wider spread, with some mid to even upper 60s near Bradley Field, but socked in the mid to upper 50s along the S coast. In addition, there will be areas of patchy drizzle/light showers possible, esp Srn areas, in the aftn.
Long Term: Main problems are onshore flow Sat, when and if it breaks, and a round of showers and storms along a cold front Mon.
Sat: Onshore flow/clouds/drizzle, light showers, etc will continue for at least the 1st 1/2 of the day. When we clear out will have a big impact on temps. If we clear out a cpl hrs earlier than I fcst, temps will likely be a few deg warmer. On the other hand,. if we clear out a cpl hrs later than I fcst, temps will likely be a few deg cooler. I went under guidance by a bit, but not as much as the prev 2 days. So I think we'll get near 70, w/mid 60s or so on the S coast, to maybe a few 74's or so along I 91.
Sun: Prob get a decent day btwn sys now. Models show nice land breezes and really keep any precip from the approaching frontal sys until later at night. I went a bit below temp guidance, because a clear day is a new development in modeling and I don't want to get too hung up on 1 solution when we're still 4 days out. But even so, I have temps similar to Sat's +2 deg or so.
Mon: We may have a period of showers Later Sun night into early Mon morn w/the warm frontal passage. Then Mon clears out. SW flow ahead of cold front should allow warm and humid air to surge N into the state. Went near guidance for most, maybe a deg or two warmer in spots, as models sometimes throw up spurious showers ahead of a cold front. Highs generally mid 70s, although the S coast prob struggles to get past 70 and someone prob approaches 80 inland valleys. It is too far out to say, but it is possible that some t-storms along the front could be strong!
Tue: Nice day behind the front. Went a bit below guidance, but only by a deg or two, w/good cold air advection. Gusty winds possible w/cold air advection too. Temps should be more uniform, as onshore flow finally gets wiped out! Highs generally upper 60s, with a few of the usual warm spots passing 70 deg.
Wed: Another beauty. Again went a bit below temp guidance w/cold air advection continuing. Winds gradually diminish. Highs generally mid 60s, with a few upper 60s in the usual warm spots.
Depending on wind dir, May 21-24 could be a warm period, but it once again looks to get washed out by a pretty strong cold front near the end of that pd. At least the pattern finally resembles one of mid-late spring now!
For today's graphics, I can't really find one that shows much of the onshore flow stuff Fri-Sat. The reason is because models don't really show drizzle well, as they focus on measurable precip. For the sake of preserving a good pic for the general public, I really don't feel like going into a discord about wind barbs. So I will post a map only of Mon's t-storm potential. The map I am posting actually shows a good squall line pretty much right along I 84. Let's keep that in the back of our minds and see how it does!