For Fri night into Sat, this is probably the nicest part of the fcst period. As Elsa pulls away, she will leave subsidence in her wake, which should keep any t-storms to our SW, at least for a 24 hr period. Guidance looks fairly reasonable, if not a touch too warm, since there is MODEST cold air advection. Look for highs on Sat mostly around 80.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): We quickly return to warm, humid, and unstable wx in the long term. Various boundaries should be near the region at one point or another and we'll be in the favorable "ring of fire" region around the heat dome, so that should keep chances of t-storms up.
For Sun, expect at least 30-40% coverage of storms to develop during the afternoon. The GFS has finally come aboard showing QPF and it is now in better agreement w/the NBM. Again, NBM guidance does not look awful, if anything, it is a tad warm. Highs should mostly be in the upper 70s.
For Mon, once again, I think the GFS is struggling w/QPF, while the NBM may be showing a bit too much. By tomorrow, they'll probably be in better agreement. It seems like once again, at least 30-40% coverage should be realized. NBM temps look too warm, esp if its QPF is realized. Highs once again should be generally in the upper 70s.
For Tue, once again guidance seems a bit warm, and I prefer continuity regarding temps. The heat ridge doesn't really become established over our area. In addition, there may not be all that many storms on Tue, as forcing is gone and we'll rely only on air mass t-storms. Therefore, I have lowered pops for Tue to just slight chance.
Wed should be much warmer and probably much stormier. The heat ridge will make a push for the area, as the frontal boundary also becomes more defined. NBM temps look pretty good, and statewide avg temps should be in the upper 80s. Widespread heavy t-storms are more probable later in the day and at night.
Not much change is forecast for Thu. Temps could be a deg or two lower than those of Wed and the convection may be limited more to the night, but once again, warm, humid, and stormy seem to be the best three words to describe the pattern.
The long range also does not look to offer any significant change. The GFS tries to dry us out after day 12 or so, but that model has a tendency to "fake us out" w/long range pattern changes. I provided lots of graphics for Elsa today, so no need for any more. See you all next week!
Long Term (Sun and beyond): We quickly return to warm, humid, and unstable wx in the long term. Various boundaries should be near the region at one point or another and we'll be in the favorable "ring of fire" region around the heat dome, so that should keep chances of t-storms up.
For Sun, expect at least 30-40% coverage of storms to develop during the afternoon. The GFS has finally come aboard showing QPF and it is now in better agreement w/the NBM. Again, NBM guidance does not look awful, if anything, it is a tad warm. Highs should mostly be in the upper 70s.
For Mon, once again, I think the GFS is struggling w/QPF, while the NBM may be showing a bit too much. By tomorrow, they'll probably be in better agreement. It seems like once again, at least 30-40% coverage should be realized. NBM temps look too warm, esp if its QPF is realized. Highs once again should be generally in the upper 70s.
For Tue, once again guidance seems a bit warm, and I prefer continuity regarding temps. The heat ridge doesn't really become established over our area. In addition, there may not be all that many storms on Tue, as forcing is gone and we'll rely only on air mass t-storms. Therefore, I have lowered pops for Tue to just slight chance.
Wed should be much warmer and probably much stormier. The heat ridge will make a push for the area, as the frontal boundary also becomes more defined. NBM temps look pretty good, and statewide avg temps should be in the upper 80s. Widespread heavy t-storms are more probable later in the day and at night.
Not much change is forecast for Thu. Temps could be a deg or two lower than those of Wed and the convection may be limited more to the night, but once again, warm, humid, and stormy seem to be the best three words to describe the pattern.
The long range also does not look to offer any significant change. The GFS tries to dry us out after day 12 or so, but that model has a tendency to "fake us out" w/long range pattern changes. I provided lots of graphics for Elsa today, so no need for any more. See you all next week!
