Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
It has been an active month. Snow, flooding rain, high wind, snow squalls, and coastal flooding. It has been warm, and now it's time to get cold. Today's active weather has ushered in a moderated version of the deep cold that has gripped much of the central US in the wake of the last storm that cut to our west. We've reached the portion of the pattern evolution that will bring cold and snow to Connecticut this week.
It has been an active month. Snow, flooding rain, high wind, snow squalls, and coastal flooding. It has been warm, and now it's time to get cold. Today's active weather has ushered in a moderated version of the deep cold that has gripped much of the central US in the wake of the last storm that cut to our west. We've reached the portion of the pattern evolution that will bring cold and snow to Connecticut this week.
Above: 9pm air temperatures across the continental US. While we won't get nearly as cold as the central US, it will be cold enough for sustained temperatures near to below freezing and snow chances as storm tracks shift from west of New England to off the east coast.
Monday-Tuesday
Tomorrow is our first full cold day, with interior highs near to below freezing. Parts of the shoreline may be a few degrees warmer, but it'll be cold there as well. We will be watching the storm system that is currently bringing snow and ice in the south. This storm will be moving quickly, and it is unusual to have the lack of consensus that we did this close to an event. Most of tomorrow looks fine, with a mix of sun and clouds.
The guidance has on balance tried to speed things up, but currently I am still expecting snow to start after midnight early Tuesday morning.
This system has been a pain, with the guidance taking longer to show what I quietly expected given the overall pattern--a weak system that is closer to the coast bringing snowfall. For our shoreline friends, this is a delicate balance. Too strong and close and you run the risk of mixing. Too far away and it's a miss altogether. Some of the high resolution guidance is more amped, but right now I prefer a blend of guidance bringing a colder middle ground.
This isn't big enough an event for a whole first call/final call. Let's just say for now that we expect snow to begin after midnight Tuesday. Light to moderate (at times) snow will fall through the day and wrap up Tuesday evening.
This looks like a minor to moderate impact event, made potentially moderate because delays or even cancellations will be possible on Tuesday. As of this forecast I expect 1-3" statewide, with most in the 2-3" range. Highest amounts are likely inland with the least in far SE CT.
That said, there has been a continued trend toward a little more snowfall. Learning the lessons of last week, I'm not ready to go up in the forecast until I see more consistency. I think the numbers will go up some, but let's watch the overnight and morning guidance for a longer term trend and analyze in the morning.
Monday-Tuesday
Tomorrow is our first full cold day, with interior highs near to below freezing. Parts of the shoreline may be a few degrees warmer, but it'll be cold there as well. We will be watching the storm system that is currently bringing snow and ice in the south. This storm will be moving quickly, and it is unusual to have the lack of consensus that we did this close to an event. Most of tomorrow looks fine, with a mix of sun and clouds.
The guidance has on balance tried to speed things up, but currently I am still expecting snow to start after midnight early Tuesday morning.
This system has been a pain, with the guidance taking longer to show what I quietly expected given the overall pattern--a weak system that is closer to the coast bringing snowfall. For our shoreline friends, this is a delicate balance. Too strong and close and you run the risk of mixing. Too far away and it's a miss altogether. Some of the high resolution guidance is more amped, but right now I prefer a blend of guidance bringing a colder middle ground.
This isn't big enough an event for a whole first call/final call. Let's just say for now that we expect snow to begin after midnight Tuesday. Light to moderate (at times) snow will fall through the day and wrap up Tuesday evening.
This looks like a minor to moderate impact event, made potentially moderate because delays or even cancellations will be possible on Tuesday. As of this forecast I expect 1-3" statewide, with most in the 2-3" range. Highest amounts are likely inland with the least in far SE CT.
That said, there has been a continued trend toward a little more snowfall. Learning the lessons of last week, I'm not ready to go up in the forecast until I see more consistency. I think the numbers will go up some, but let's watch the overnight and morning guidance for a longer term trend and analyze in the morning.
Above: a trend loop of GFS runs. It was really only in the last day that we've seen some of the globals start to get the system closer for snow. But beware, that mixing line is close to SE CT, even though it does look cold enough for accumulation there.
Wednesday-Thursday
In the wake of the event Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look cold as well. It should be quiet and we will be watching the next potential storm very closely. Once again, highs may not cross freezing in interior CT. Shoreline may struggle as well, especially on Wednesday.
Wednesday-Thursday
In the wake of the event Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look cold as well. It should be quiet and we will be watching the next potential storm very closely. Once again, highs may not cross freezing in interior CT. Shoreline may struggle as well, especially on Wednesday.
Above: the 12z Euro depiction of temperatures Wednesday-Thursday. In the wake of the snow event Tuesday, Wednesday may be quite cold.
Friday-Sunday
Friday is the period to watch. Simply put, there is pretty explosive potential with a lobe of the polar vortex looming and available to inject itself into a system developing, but when you look at the details, the timing looks just off enough to bring significant uncertainty to what happens. If we saw an earlier and cleaner phase of the pieces of energy it's a big storm. If things remain disjointed, it's likely a snow event, but much weaker. Five days out with this much uncertainty means nobody should be locking in anything. Plenty of time to watch. In the wake of whatever happens, another push of cold comes into the region keeping our weekend cold and possibly frigid.
Friday-Sunday
Friday is the period to watch. Simply put, there is pretty explosive potential with a lobe of the polar vortex looming and available to inject itself into a system developing, but when you look at the details, the timing looks just off enough to bring significant uncertainty to what happens. If we saw an earlier and cleaner phase of the pieces of energy it's a big storm. If things remain disjointed, it's likely a snow event, but much weaker. Five days out with this much uncertainty means nobody should be locking in anything. Plenty of time to watch. In the wake of whatever happens, another push of cold comes into the region keeping our weekend cold and possibly frigid.
Above: the 12z EPS showing potential low pressure centers during the Friday timeframe. Note how much closer the lows are on the ensemble compared to the GEFS below. There's still a lot of spread for this one. Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny and cold. Increasing clouds late. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday: Snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 80%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 20s inland. Upper 20s to low 30s at the coast.
Thursday: Partly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Friday: Snow. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of snow 60%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 20s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Partly sunny and cold. Increasing clouds late. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday: Snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 80%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 20s inland. Upper 20s to low 30s at the coast.
Thursday: Partly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Friday: Snow. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of snow 60%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 20s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
