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Quiet in Connecticut as the weather community closely tracks category five Hurricane Dorian

9/1/2019

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Good morning from SCW. 

Things are quiet in Connecticut. Today we're seeing a continuation of beautiful conditions, and fortunately, much of the holiday weekend has turned out nice. Labor Day won't be as nice however, and by the end of the week we'll be watching to see what the eventual outcome of Hurricane Dorian will be. Let me make it clear early on however--we do not currently see strong signals for a major impact in Connecticut. 
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Extraordinary category five hurricane Dorian, which is currently rapidly intensifying as it approaches the Bahamas. There is still large uncertainty about the future track. 

Labor Day
Tomorrow looks wet. Unfortunately, we will see rain sweep in and it will likely be heavy at times. The morning might be ok, but I am expecting more of a washout, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. 

Tuesday-Thursday
Tuesday looks nice as the cold front passes. The next chance of rain comes Wednesday, as another system tries to push through. This one does not look as potent as Monday's so while I expect an umbrella day, I do not think it'll be a total washout. Things clear out for Thursday, and that looks like a nice late summer day as well. Temperatures throughout this period look seasonable. 

Friday-Sunday
The main thing we're watching through this period is Dorian. Again, at this time we do not anticipate a major impact. The current upper level pattern does not look conducive for any type of direct hit. However, there is large uncertainty in the short term track, which translates to the long term track. Some guidance, like the GFS, has some rain getting here from the storm, but the majority of guidance has it safely skirting offshore. I will not post images of computer guidance right now because I don't think it adds to what I've just said. I am not introducing rain chances in the forecast currently. 

In sum: Nothing to worry about currently. Nothing to panic over. Just something to casually watch as we pray for the safety of those further south. Should the storm be a miss, the first weekend of September looks spectacular, with sunny skies and seasonable conditions. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 90%. 

Tuesday: Clearing skies and partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Wednesday: Increasing clouds and a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. 

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Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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