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...QUIET PATTERN FOR A WHILE, CHANGES MAY BE AFOOT IN THE LONG RANGE...

10/12/2016

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This discussion will probably be on the short, as there really isn't any significant weather, aside from some minor frontal passages with a few showers.  On the current weather map, high pressure was over Southern Virginia.  The next frontal system that will give us any weather, which would be tomorrow.

Tonight: Temperatures will not be quite as chilly as they have been, due to more low clouds and onshore flow.  Obviously, this will affect coastal areas more.  Low temperatures will be mostly from the mid 40s to the low 50s, but a few places in the NW hills could see a reading or two in the low 40s.

Tomorrow: Clouds will increase ahead of the cold front.  This front does not have much moisture or forcing, but one thing it does have going for it is that it will be coming through at the heat of the day and into a slightly warmer than normal air mass.  I will include a small chance of light rain showers in the late afternoon and early evening hours, with the greatest chance in the NW hills.  High temperatures should be a bit above normal, in the mid to upper 60s.

Tomorrow Night and Friday: Skies clear tomorrow night and temperatures fall rapidly behind the front.  Expect lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.  On Friday, expect a sunny, but chilly day, with high temperatures in the low 60s.  A few locations in the CT valley could reach the mid 60s.

In the longer term, for the weekend and beyond, the first highlight is going to be a very cold morning Saturday morning, which should mark the end of the growing season in much of the interior, away from the cities.  In these areas, temperatures will fall to around the freezing mark.  The warmer locations will be in the low 40s, with some areas in downtown(s) of the big cities and right along the SE coast staying in the mid 40s.  Other than this, the weekend should be sunny and pleasant, with slowly moderating temperatures.  Most places will not reach 60 on Saturday, but mid 60s become more common on Sunday.

As we get into the new work week, temperatures should warm.   Next week could average well above normal! However, this is more the pattern resetting than a warm pattern re-establishing itself.  As the warmer air moves in, there is a pretty good chance of a steady light rain on Monday.  This will keep temperatures down, with highs expected to be in the mid 60s.  Temperatures warm into the upper 60s for the rest of the long term.  For now, I'll keep the rest of the long term dry.

There is some confusion in the modeling as we get into the long range.  Arctic air and a pattern in flux beating up against a strong Western Atlantic Ridge is a good recipe for a big storm around change time.  But as far as details, models are all over the place, so other than advising everyone to be ready for a potential storm in this time frame, I can't say much else.  

Now, let's look at the two main (small) weather events slated to affect the area- the first one tomorrow and the second one on Monday.  You notice here on this map that the whole state gets at least sprinkles, with the heaviest precipitation in the NW Hills.
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The next image shows the warm frontal passage scheduled for Monday.    On this image, you can see precipitation is slightly heavier.  Once again, the NW Hills get the most, with the far eastern portion of the state getting the least.

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That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!


_GP!
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