There has been a lot of talk about the complexity of our latest winter weather event, and now that the snow has fallen (and melted) it is time to look at the maps. Before I continue, I would like to note something important: we do our best, just like many other forecasters at other outlets. We try to provide you with the best information as quickly as possible, and we try to do it without adding additional hype. That is our model, and it will not change.
We will not always be right. This time, we missed much of Tolland County and far southeast Connecticut.
Even when we are mostly right, we will have areas that overperform and underperform. That's the business. In a field where there is inherent unpredictability and where small scale features can literally impact one area of a town and not another, we try to hone in on the possibilities as fast as possible to give you a heads up.
At the same time, we don't want to be guided solely by models. The data they provide is essential to forecasters, but if we flip flopped like the models did every six hours with this latest event, that wouldn't be terribly difficult either.
Let's look at the map. White numbers mean that they were correct for our forecast zone. Black numbers indicate where we were wrong. I used member submissions and National Weather Service observations. I tried to include as much data as I could.
We will not always be right. This time, we missed much of Tolland County and far southeast Connecticut.
Even when we are mostly right, we will have areas that overperform and underperform. That's the business. In a field where there is inherent unpredictability and where small scale features can literally impact one area of a town and not another, we try to hone in on the possibilities as fast as possible to give you a heads up.
At the same time, we don't want to be guided solely by models. The data they provide is essential to forecasters, but if we flip flopped like the models did every six hours with this latest event, that wouldn't be terribly difficult either.
Let's look at the map. White numbers mean that they were correct for our forecast zone. Black numbers indicate where we were wrong. I used member submissions and National Weather Service observations. I tried to include as much data as I could.
SCW Final Map/Verification
In this case, I won't grade our performance. I will leave that to you.
By our count, 50 of the 66 reports, or 75.7% fell within our zones.
62 of the 66 reports, or 93.9% were accurate to within one inch.
I want perfection every single time. When I fall short of that, I like to go back to the drawing board and learn from my mistakes. My colleagues at SCW are no different. As we head into spring, we will continue to get better, and we will continue our commitment to
1) Get the forecast right
2) Communicate that forecast effectively and quickly, and
3) Do it without unnecessary hype
We will continue to shoot straight, give you insight into how we make our forecasts, and provide you the quality information that has allowed us to grow from a small group to over 15,000 followers.
The week ahead
The week ahead looks less exciting than the last few days. Tomorrow should be a beautiful day, with sunny skies and highs near 50. Tuesday night and early Wednesday we deal with a few showers in the area, but Wednesday actually looks pretty nice with highs in the low 60s clearing skies. Unfortunately, that will not last long, as both Thursday and Friday look to be cool days with shower chances. We should have a full forecast out by the middle of the week.
Thank you for reading SCW!
-DB
By our count, 50 of the 66 reports, or 75.7% fell within our zones.
62 of the 66 reports, or 93.9% were accurate to within one inch.
I want perfection every single time. When I fall short of that, I like to go back to the drawing board and learn from my mistakes. My colleagues at SCW are no different. As we head into spring, we will continue to get better, and we will continue our commitment to
1) Get the forecast right
2) Communicate that forecast effectively and quickly, and
3) Do it without unnecessary hype
We will continue to shoot straight, give you insight into how we make our forecasts, and provide you the quality information that has allowed us to grow from a small group to over 15,000 followers.
The week ahead
The week ahead looks less exciting than the last few days. Tomorrow should be a beautiful day, with sunny skies and highs near 50. Tuesday night and early Wednesday we deal with a few showers in the area, but Wednesday actually looks pretty nice with highs in the low 60s clearing skies. Unfortunately, that will not last long, as both Thursday and Friday look to be cool days with shower chances. We should have a full forecast out by the middle of the week.
Thank you for reading SCW!
-DB
