Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
It's been downright hot, relative to this time of year. The last few days have seen highs above or near record highs, and another very warm day is anticipated tomorrow in advance of a cold front that will knock us back down (briefly) to normal. After that, we will see a last gasp of warmth before the weekend and pattern change. It's quiet for the next few days, but there's a lot to get to. Let's dive in.
It's been downright hot, relative to this time of year. The last few days have seen highs above or near record highs, and another very warm day is anticipated tomorrow in advance of a cold front that will knock us back down (briefly) to normal. After that, we will see a last gasp of warmth before the weekend and pattern change. It's quiet for the next few days, but there's a lot to get to. Let's dive in.
Above: the current temperature departure for the month. In a word--blowtorch. As of yesterday, BDL was 12.5 degrees above normal and Bridgeport was 8.9 degrees above normal. We are going to add to that departure with today's heat and tomorrow's warmth.
Monday
While there are some shower chances overnight, tomorrow should clear out after the front and we will see a partly to mostly sunny and WARM day. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s again with breezy conditions. From there, it cools back to normal, which features highs in the mid 50s.
Monday
While there are some shower chances overnight, tomorrow should clear out after the front and we will see a partly to mostly sunny and WARM day. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s again with breezy conditions. From there, it cools back to normal, which features highs in the mid 50s.
Above: the 18z GFS showing the temperature seesaw over the next few days. After our continued blowtorch we see a cool down for Tuesday and Wednesday, before we warm up at the end of the work week and into the start of the holiday weekend in advance of the coastal storm. Note what's lurking behind that end of week warmth however.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Election Day and the day after look excellent and more like November, with highs in the low to mid 50s in the wake of Monday's front. High pressure builds in and it will result in clear and dry days. Both nights look closer to normal as well with highs for most in the 30s.
Thursday
The end of the week warms up, as ridging flexes once more. This will be important to the initial track into Florida of Invest 98L, which is expected to become our third named storm of November and potentially our third hurricane of the month, which is highly anomalous. I'll get to 98L in a minute, but for Thursday we still look quiet and warmer with highs in the 60s.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Election Day and the day after look excellent and more like November, with highs in the low to mid 50s in the wake of Monday's front. High pressure builds in and it will result in clear and dry days. Both nights look closer to normal as well with highs for most in the 30s.
Thursday
The end of the week warms up, as ridging flexes once more. This will be important to the initial track into Florida of Invest 98L, which is expected to become our third named storm of November and potentially our third hurricane of the month, which is highly anomalous. I'll get to 98L in a minute, but for Thursday we still look quiet and warmer with highs in the 60s.
Friday-Sunday
Although we are nearly a week out, I am declaring this a SCW Period of Interest.
By Friday, our ridge is departing as a powerful trough moves in from the Midwest. The first thing this will do is bring in southerly flow on Friday. The trough will steer whatever is left of 98L up the East Coast. As a result of this very favorable setup for a moisture train, long before the coastal low gets here, we will see rain.
The major guidance is in strong agreement that a tropical or subtropical system will form and make landfall in Florida on Thursday. As the trough swings through the Midwest, the system will turn northeast and begin to interact with the trough, creating a strong post-tropical coastal storm. Friday looks to start off fine, but we will see increasing clouds and rain showers beginning as early as Friday afternoon. Timing still looks up in the air, and the exact track of the low is critical to how much rainfall we receive.
Currently, the heaviest rain looks to be Friday night into Saturday. Right now we are looking at a couple inches of rain, especially in eastern CT. I'm not expecting significant wind with this system, as long as it stays offshore. Stay tuned as details need to be sorted out on 1) how strong 98L gets, 2) the eventual track, and 3) exact timing.
Below is an 18z GFS depiction of the storm, but know that while the general ideal is unlikely to change, the exact details will.
Although we are nearly a week out, I am declaring this a SCW Period of Interest.
By Friday, our ridge is departing as a powerful trough moves in from the Midwest. The first thing this will do is bring in southerly flow on Friday. The trough will steer whatever is left of 98L up the East Coast. As a result of this very favorable setup for a moisture train, long before the coastal low gets here, we will see rain.
The major guidance is in strong agreement that a tropical or subtropical system will form and make landfall in Florida on Thursday. As the trough swings through the Midwest, the system will turn northeast and begin to interact with the trough, creating a strong post-tropical coastal storm. Friday looks to start off fine, but we will see increasing clouds and rain showers beginning as early as Friday afternoon. Timing still looks up in the air, and the exact track of the low is critical to how much rainfall we receive.
Currently, the heaviest rain looks to be Friday night into Saturday. Right now we are looking at a couple inches of rain, especially in eastern CT. I'm not expecting significant wind with this system, as long as it stays offshore. Stay tuned as details need to be sorted out on 1) how strong 98L gets, 2) the eventual track, and 3) exact timing.
Below is an 18z GFS depiction of the storm, but know that while the general ideal is unlikely to change, the exact details will.
Sunday
In the wake of the storm we will get cold. While Sunday will be dry, it will be much colder and windy as a new pattern takes hold. It won't be a great day for outdoor activities, and back in Upstate New York there is a signal for their first lake effect snow event of the season.
Which brings me to the pattern change...
In the wake of the storm we will get cold. While Sunday will be dry, it will be much colder and windy as a new pattern takes hold. It won't be a great day for outdoor activities, and back in Upstate New York there is a signal for their first lake effect snow event of the season.
Which brings me to the pattern change...
Above: the 12z EPS (European Ensemble), which has been most resistant to a major pattern shift, now shows the end of our blowtorch and virtually a nationwide cold snap that may have some modest staying power.
Pattern Change Preview
The departure of our coastal low as a result of a powerful trough, will usher in regime change. We will go from well above normal to below normal from Saturday to Sunday. A sprawling and cold Canadian surge will press into the continental US next week as anomalous ridging switches from the eastern US to Alaska.
The departure of our coastal low as a result of a powerful trough, will usher in regime change. We will go from well above normal to below normal from Saturday to Sunday. A sprawling and cold Canadian surge will press into the continental US next week as anomalous ridging switches from the eastern US to Alaska.
Above is a 500mb depiction from the EPS over North America. With ridging into Alaska, cold air gets pushed down into the US. You will also note troughing in the Midwest as this happens.
There is high confidence in a period of colder than normal temperatures. What is less certain is the duration of the cold and whether there will be storminess to go with it. There are signals that have been fairly consistent that we may see some storminess that coincides with the cold in the 15-18th period, but of course, that's far out. I think at the very least, first flakes--even if minor--will be on the table if we get repeated cold shots during this pattern change.
The pattern that has favored record warmth is changing in favor of a colder than normal pattern. To be clear, it doesn't look like record cold, but it will likely bring some cold departures on par with early December rather than mid-November. It's significant enough to feel it...and see flakes if things are timed right.
The Dailies
Monday: Early showers and cloudiness turning to partly sunny skies. Breezy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain early 40%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Friday: SCW Period of Interest. Increasing clouds and rain late in the afternoon and evening. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday: SCW Period of Interest. Breezy with rain. Rain diminishing by afternoon. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain (early) 90%.
Sunday: Decreasing clouds with colder and breezy conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 40s with colder wind chills.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
There is high confidence in a period of colder than normal temperatures. What is less certain is the duration of the cold and whether there will be storminess to go with it. There are signals that have been fairly consistent that we may see some storminess that coincides with the cold in the 15-18th period, but of course, that's far out. I think at the very least, first flakes--even if minor--will be on the table if we get repeated cold shots during this pattern change.
The pattern that has favored record warmth is changing in favor of a colder than normal pattern. To be clear, it doesn't look like record cold, but it will likely bring some cold departures on par with early December rather than mid-November. It's significant enough to feel it...and see flakes if things are timed right.
The Dailies
Monday: Early showers and cloudiness turning to partly sunny skies. Breezy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain early 40%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Friday: SCW Period of Interest. Increasing clouds and rain late in the afternoon and evening. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday: SCW Period of Interest. Breezy with rain. Rain diminishing by afternoon. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain (early) 90%.
Sunday: Decreasing clouds with colder and breezy conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 40s with colder wind chills.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
