Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
As our longtime followers know, in order to hold ourselves accountable and become better forecasters we often review our winter storm forecasts and give ourselves a grade. We've had two storms, so let's grade them both! We grade based on the factors we put in our final call forecast, and because snow rules everything around here we weigh snow accumulation forecast double.
Let's start with the December 14 winter storm.
As our longtime followers know, in order to hold ourselves accountable and become better forecasters we often review our winter storm forecasts and give ourselves a grade. We've had two storms, so let's grade them both! We grade based on the factors we put in our final call forecast, and because snow rules everything around here we weigh snow accumulation forecast double.
Let's start with the December 14 winter storm.
Above: the verification map for the 12/14 winter storm. We use NWS spotter reports, and locations are approximate.
Timing
This was the worst part of the forecast. It remained a quick moving storm, but the high resolution guidance had the right idea of an earlier start and later finish. We had first flakes well before midnight, and snow didn't fully depart until after 2pm. Timing the worst of it was fine, but still, not pleased with this aspect of the forecast.
Grade: C
Snow & Ice Accumulation
Here, we did an excellent job. The dividing line was placed beautifully and I am so glad we went with 2-5" rather than 2-4 to account for a higher ceiling. Surprisingly it was SW CT not SE CT that had the jackpot, but overall, virtually everyone fell well within our zones. I thought of dinging this aspect of the grade because we had spots that had more pasty rather than dry snow, but it didn't outweigh the placement of our snowfall zones.
Grade: A
Wind & Power Outages
No notes here. Spot on with not expecting any meaningful wind or power outages during the storm.
Grade: A
Overall Impact
Most landed in the 2-4" zone as we expected, and while there was a moderate impact on the roads, it was minor overall. We did have delays the next day due to black ice, but nothing out of the ordinary signifying a forecast miss. We called for the cold right after the storm passed.
Grade: A
Final Grade: A-
Now to our first winter storm on December 2nd.
Timing
This was the worst part of the forecast. It remained a quick moving storm, but the high resolution guidance had the right idea of an earlier start and later finish. We had first flakes well before midnight, and snow didn't fully depart until after 2pm. Timing the worst of it was fine, but still, not pleased with this aspect of the forecast.
Grade: C
Snow & Ice Accumulation
Here, we did an excellent job. The dividing line was placed beautifully and I am so glad we went with 2-5" rather than 2-4 to account for a higher ceiling. Surprisingly it was SW CT not SE CT that had the jackpot, but overall, virtually everyone fell well within our zones. I thought of dinging this aspect of the grade because we had spots that had more pasty rather than dry snow, but it didn't outweigh the placement of our snowfall zones.
Grade: A
Wind & Power Outages
No notes here. Spot on with not expecting any meaningful wind or power outages during the storm.
Grade: A
Overall Impact
Most landed in the 2-4" zone as we expected, and while there was a moderate impact on the roads, it was minor overall. We did have delays the next day due to black ice, but nothing out of the ordinary signifying a forecast miss. We called for the cold right after the storm passed.
Grade: A
Final Grade: A-
Now to our first winter storm on December 2nd.
Timing
We were pretty spot on for the timing forecast. The precipitation began within our time frame, and the heaviest precipitation occurred in the afternoon and early evening. The precipitation ended when we expected.
Grade: A
Snow & Ice Accumulation
This was a tough forecast that required changes between the first and final calls, and our changes paid off handsomely. Our 3-6" zone verified nicely, and although it's tough to verify a coating when folks are changing to rain quickly, we did have small measurable amounts in northern CT. The lack of reports in southern CT force me to ding the grade a bit, but not by much.
The big place where we have to take a hit is with the icing that occurred. We expected any mixing to be sleet rather than freezing rain, and boy was that wrong. We had low level cold that caused widespread freezing rain and even though it wasn't much, it was enough to make things slick. That takes what would've been a great grade here into a subpar one.
Grade: B-
Wind & Power Outages
We didn't expect significant wind or power issues and that was spot on.
Grade: A
Overall Impact
We thought it would be minor impact for most, and despite the icing, I think that was the case overall. We thought it would be a more moderate event in the places that could stay all snow and that worked out well. That said, I think missing on the freezing rain requires a ding here.
Grade: B+
Final Grade: B+
Off to a great start so far. Let's keep it going.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading and trusting SCW.
We were pretty spot on for the timing forecast. The precipitation began within our time frame, and the heaviest precipitation occurred in the afternoon and early evening. The precipitation ended when we expected.
Grade: A
Snow & Ice Accumulation
This was a tough forecast that required changes between the first and final calls, and our changes paid off handsomely. Our 3-6" zone verified nicely, and although it's tough to verify a coating when folks are changing to rain quickly, we did have small measurable amounts in northern CT. The lack of reports in southern CT force me to ding the grade a bit, but not by much.
The big place where we have to take a hit is with the icing that occurred. We expected any mixing to be sleet rather than freezing rain, and boy was that wrong. We had low level cold that caused widespread freezing rain and even though it wasn't much, it was enough to make things slick. That takes what would've been a great grade here into a subpar one.
Grade: B-
Wind & Power Outages
We didn't expect significant wind or power issues and that was spot on.
Grade: A
Overall Impact
We thought it would be minor impact for most, and despite the icing, I think that was the case overall. We thought it would be a more moderate event in the places that could stay all snow and that worked out well. That said, I think missing on the freezing rain requires a ding here.
Grade: B+
Final Grade: B+
Off to a great start so far. Let's keep it going.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading and trusting SCW.
