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SCW Double Issue Part I--4/30/17 Forecaster's Discussion

4/30/2017

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Good afternoon from SCW!

Today is the start of severe weather awareness week. With that in mind, I'll be posting a detailed severe weather basics discussion later today. In the meantime, I want to give you a quick forecast for the week ahead. Overall, the pattern continues, with a downward trend in temperatures and more rain chances. 

Monday
Tomorrow brings rain chances as a cold front pushes through the region. There could be some showers overnight and the morning doesn't look particularly pleasant with fog and shower chances, but the real period of interest is tomorrow afternoon and evening. The area of our west has a slight risk of severe weather but garden variety thunderstorms could push into Connecticut as well. At the very least, showers are likely into early Tuesday. 
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Tuesday/Wednesday
Tuesday and Wednesday look like decent days, with Tuesday being the last above normal day before we start to see the downward trend in temperatures. This is because we expect the cold front to lag a bit as it pushes through the region. Even with cooler than normal temps, Wednesday currently looks nice. Enjoy it while it lasts. 

Thursday-Weekend
Rain. Expect plenty of rain. The guidance is split on how long the period of dreary weather lasts, but it looks like an area of low pressure will make its way from the southwest on Thursday, bringing with it periods of rain that will be heavy at times. Guidance is in agreement on rain beginning as early as Thursday afternoon, with Friday been particularly wet. By the weekend, depending on the track of the low, we will either see continued rain or a bit of clearing. Right now, I lean toward lingering showers both Saturday and Sunday. Maybe not enough for a washout, but it is something to watch the next few days. 
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The dailies
Monday: Showers and fog early, followed by additional showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 70%

Tuesday:
Showers early leading to partly cloudy skies. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain early 30%.

Wednesday:
Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s. 

Thursday:
Increasing clouds early with showers and rain during the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 70%. 

Friday:
Rain, heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 80%. 

Saturday:
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.

Stay tuned for our part II of our double addition today. 

-DB
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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