Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Let's get right to it. The trend has been your friend if you love winter weather. Winter weather advisories are up for the southern four counties but all of the state will see snow as a fast moving system is poised to deliver a plowable snowfall to most of the state.
Let's get right to it. The trend has been your friend if you love winter weather. Winter weather advisories are up for the southern four counties but all of the state will see snow as a fast moving system is poised to deliver a plowable snowfall to most of the state.
Above: the final call snow map for tomorrow's storm. Most of the state is in the 2-5" zone now, raising both the floor and ceiling for snowfall. Most will likely stay in the 2-4 inch range, but I want to account for the potential of a little over 4" in southern and perhaps eastern CT. For north central and NW CT, I kept the 1-3 inch zone due to the potential for dry air to erode the precipitation a bit, especially in the CT River Valley.
Overall Setup
Despite the numbers coming up for most, the setup hasn't changed substantially. A weak shortwave riding along a trough is starting to develop into what will become a weak low off the coast tomorrow. Overnight and through today we've see a further northwest trend with the precipitation shield, along with a more organized storm at 500mb. That bodes well for a period of light to perhaps moderate snow overnight and into tomorrow morning. The system looks pretty solid on radar at this hour.
Overall Setup
Despite the numbers coming up for most, the setup hasn't changed substantially. A weak shortwave riding along a trough is starting to develop into what will become a weak low off the coast tomorrow. Overnight and through today we've see a further northwest trend with the precipitation shield, along with a more organized storm at 500mb. That bodes well for a period of light to perhaps moderate snow overnight and into tomorrow morning. The system looks pretty solid on radar at this hour.
Perhaps the best example of the gradual change in organization can be seen below, looking at a GFS depiction of tomorrow morning at 7am. This is looking at frontogenesis at 850mb, basically, the convergence of moisture that allows for banding. These are the last eight model runs. Note how the purple lines (frontogenesis) tighten and trend northwest. That's a signal for meaningful snow in the state tomorrow.
The result is a more robust impact across much of Connecticut. I'm only showing the GFS here, but this is reflective across much of the guidance.
Timing
This is still a quick moving system, but in addition to being a bit more organized some of the guidance wants to slow it down. While we may see some flurries in western CT before midnight, I still think the storm doesn't get underway for most until after midnight. This should still be a fairly light to maybe moderate snow, but the "heaviest" snow is likely between 4-9am. Snow should quickly taper off after that and I still think we are mostly done at noon, though in eastern CT there may be some lingering flakes until about 1pm.
Snow & Ice Accumulation
Unlike the other storm earlier in the month, this is a snow event statewide. We will have cold air in place throughout the atmosphere for virtually all snow. This is one of those times where it's coastal CT that may see the most, especially in SE CT.
I'm calling for 2-5" for most of CT, with the most closer to the coast, and continuing with 1-3" for north central and NW CT. If trends continue overnight perhaps we could see higher totals in that 1-3" zone, but as of this forecast I don't quite see that especially with a signal for dry air to the north trying to work its way into the CT River Valley in north central CT. This is a plowable snowfall for most of the state. We're looking at a dry fluffy snow, with ratios higher than the standard 10:1.
Wind & Power Outages
We do not have a significant pressure gradient with this system, and the system is weak and well offshore. We are not expecting meaningful wind or power outages.
Overall Impact
Things look slightly more impactful, especially if we're talking about 2-4" for most rather than 1-3". Still, the timing of the system for Sunday morning, the relatively low snowfall totals, and speed of the system all point to this being a minor impact event in the whole scheme of things. It may be moderate impact on the roads, so take your time out there tomorrow. Make sure you clean up, as the wake of the storm will bring another very cold period.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
This is still a quick moving system, but in addition to being a bit more organized some of the guidance wants to slow it down. While we may see some flurries in western CT before midnight, I still think the storm doesn't get underway for most until after midnight. This should still be a fairly light to maybe moderate snow, but the "heaviest" snow is likely between 4-9am. Snow should quickly taper off after that and I still think we are mostly done at noon, though in eastern CT there may be some lingering flakes until about 1pm.
Snow & Ice Accumulation
Unlike the other storm earlier in the month, this is a snow event statewide. We will have cold air in place throughout the atmosphere for virtually all snow. This is one of those times where it's coastal CT that may see the most, especially in SE CT.
I'm calling for 2-5" for most of CT, with the most closer to the coast, and continuing with 1-3" for north central and NW CT. If trends continue overnight perhaps we could see higher totals in that 1-3" zone, but as of this forecast I don't quite see that especially with a signal for dry air to the north trying to work its way into the CT River Valley in north central CT. This is a plowable snowfall for most of the state. We're looking at a dry fluffy snow, with ratios higher than the standard 10:1.
Wind & Power Outages
We do not have a significant pressure gradient with this system, and the system is weak and well offshore. We are not expecting meaningful wind or power outages.
Overall Impact
Things look slightly more impactful, especially if we're talking about 2-4" for most rather than 1-3". Still, the timing of the system for Sunday morning, the relatively low snowfall totals, and speed of the system all point to this being a minor impact event in the whole scheme of things. It may be moderate impact on the roads, so take your time out there tomorrow. Make sure you clean up, as the wake of the storm will bring another very cold period.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
