Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
Whew. It has been a season. Normally, we would see one high end winter storm at best in a given season, but after a gargantuan trend in the last 24 hours across guidance, it is increasingly likely that another big event is coming.
We didn't talk in much detail about this storm over the last week because there was no need to, other than provide our basic updates. The hype was out of control, and nothing that happens from here on changes that because the guidance was not anywhere near on board until now. Our aim is to provide you with information that can be backed up with solid analysis.
Well, here we are. The third system in our active pattern may very well realize its explosive potential, and that means a possible blockbuster storm for our region.
This is our first call forecast. It is meant to give you everything you need to know right now so you can begin planning. There will be a final call forecast issued tomorrow or very early Sunday depending on the timing of the storm.
Let's get to it.
Whew. It has been a season. Normally, we would see one high end winter storm at best in a given season, but after a gargantuan trend in the last 24 hours across guidance, it is increasingly likely that another big event is coming.
We didn't talk in much detail about this storm over the last week because there was no need to, other than provide our basic updates. The hype was out of control, and nothing that happens from here on changes that because the guidance was not anywhere near on board until now. Our aim is to provide you with information that can be backed up with solid analysis.
Well, here we are. The third system in our active pattern may very well realize its explosive potential, and that means a possible blockbuster storm for our region.
This is our first call forecast. It is meant to give you everything you need to know right now so you can begin planning. There will be a final call forecast issued tomorrow or very early Sunday depending on the timing of the storm.
Let's get to it.
Above: the first call snow map. We are initially calling for 8-16" of snow with the lightest amounts in western CT and perhaps the CT River Valley in north central CT.
Overall Setup
Explosive is the word. We actually said that some time ago, but it wasn't until the last 24 hours that the true potential for this storm began to come into focus.
The expectation continues to be that energy dives down from Canada and the Midwest in the wake of our current storm today. A ridge in the western U.S. is absolutely critical here, as is blocking upstream that will slow the flow and allow for explosive development once the energy moves off the coast.
Previously, the guidance had a flatter ridge out west and more confluence to our north which was working in tandem to potentially kick our storm out to sea or deliver a glancing blow at best. Now, as we get closer in time to our event, the models are latching onto the idea of the opposite occurring. The result is...explosive.
Overall Setup
Explosive is the word. We actually said that some time ago, but it wasn't until the last 24 hours that the true potential for this storm began to come into focus.
The expectation continues to be that energy dives down from Canada and the Midwest in the wake of our current storm today. A ridge in the western U.S. is absolutely critical here, as is blocking upstream that will slow the flow and allow for explosive development once the energy moves off the coast.
Previously, the guidance had a flatter ridge out west and more confluence to our north which was working in tandem to potentially kick our storm out to sea or deliver a glancing blow at best. Now, as we get closer in time to our event, the models are latching onto the idea of the opposite occurring. The result is...explosive.
Above is the 18z GFS depiction of the 500mb evolution from Saturday to early Tuesday morning. Note the energy diving down aided by the big western ridge, and watch the energy intensify and wrap up right south of New England as it rolls by. That is a big winter storm signal.
The GFS has led the way overall with this system, sniffing out this potential before the Euro model could. Once again, the AI versions of both models showed the potential early, and now are converging on a higher end solution for New England.
So what would this mean? As the energy dives south and reaches the coast, it will trigger a coastal storm. Because there is some modest but well-timed blocking, that will trigger high end intensification of our storm as it moves northeast. The combination of a strong pressure gradient and rapidly developing storm will make this a very windy event, very different from any winter storm this season.
The big question remains just how far northwest this storm gets. A bona fide blizzard is squarely on the table.
The GFS has led the way overall with this system, sniffing out this potential before the Euro model could. Once again, the AI versions of both models showed the potential early, and now are converging on a higher end solution for New England.
So what would this mean? As the energy dives south and reaches the coast, it will trigger a coastal storm. Because there is some modest but well-timed blocking, that will trigger high end intensification of our storm as it moves northeast. The combination of a strong pressure gradient and rapidly developing storm will make this a very windy event, very different from any winter storm this season.
The big question remains just how far northwest this storm gets. A bona fide blizzard is squarely on the table.
Above: the 18z GFS surface depiction of the storm. This would suggest heavy banding across the state and blizzard conditions somewhere in southeast New England, if not most of the region.
Below: the hot off the presses 18z Euro AI. You may not see pretty colors, but the result is all the same. Blockbuster event.
Below: the hot off the presses 18z Euro AI. You may not see pretty colors, but the result is all the same. Blockbuster event.
Now these are just surface depictions, and you have to do a whole lot more to come up with a forecast than look at that, but everything at this moment points to a high end event across much of the northeast U.S., with more time for this to trend.
Because we haven't seen things stabilize yet, we need to be on the lookout for 1) a further northwest trend that makes this even more impactful or 2) last minute shifts southeast (as does happen with coastal storms) that makes this less of a blockbuster and more of a run of the mill major storm.
The Forecast
Timing
This is tricky still and expect some possible shifts, but we have more consensus now. Currently our expectation is that snow begins from SW to NE on Sunday, most likely in the late morning to early afternoon timeframe. If I had to put a number on it, I'd say between 11am-2pm. The worst of the storm would most likely occur however during the overnight period through most of the day Monday. That's when you can expect the heaviest snow and strongest wind.
Snow Accumulation
We're still in somewhat uncertain territory given the ongoing trend, but everything has pointed upward. In fact as I was writing this I took the numbers up.
My current expectation is a general 8-16+ inches of snow across the state, with the highest amounts in eastern CT, and lowest in western and north central CT. This is subject to change as we gather more information on the amount of moisture the system will throw into the state. The plus is there because it's quite possible the numbers go up for the final call, but let's not discount the last second shift southeast either.
Bottom line: expect a high end event but the final totals are not in stone yet.
Wind & Power Outages
The forecast here is very different from what we've seen in other recent winter storms. Here, we expect both a strong pressure gradient and an explosively developing storm to produce significant wind. The wind could very well be prolific in eastern New England, but for now we want to hedge a little more conservative on wind here.
In northern CT, our current forecast is for maximum wind gusts of 35-45mph. While that's enough to meet the wind minimum for blizzard conditions, we need three consecutive hours of it for a blizzard to verify. It's unclear if that will be the case, especially in NW CT.
In southern CT, especially coastal sections, our current forecast is for maximum wind gusts of 45-55mph. Here, blizzard conditions are more likely to verify, especially in SE CT.
We don't currently expect heavy wet snow, but along the coast it's always tricky, and with higher end winds that means scattered power outages are possible. This is definitely something to watch.
Overall Impact
Folks, this is one to take seriously. The trend has rapidly moved toward a high impact event and a bona fide blizzard is on the table. As much as our first blockbuster storm was impactful, this could be even higher end due to the potential for very strong winds. That's not said to make anyone panic, but based on the information we now have, it's time to prepare. We will be watching the track trend over the coming day, and will be with you every step of the way.
Stay tuned.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Because we haven't seen things stabilize yet, we need to be on the lookout for 1) a further northwest trend that makes this even more impactful or 2) last minute shifts southeast (as does happen with coastal storms) that makes this less of a blockbuster and more of a run of the mill major storm.
The Forecast
Timing
This is tricky still and expect some possible shifts, but we have more consensus now. Currently our expectation is that snow begins from SW to NE on Sunday, most likely in the late morning to early afternoon timeframe. If I had to put a number on it, I'd say between 11am-2pm. The worst of the storm would most likely occur however during the overnight period through most of the day Monday. That's when you can expect the heaviest snow and strongest wind.
Snow Accumulation
We're still in somewhat uncertain territory given the ongoing trend, but everything has pointed upward. In fact as I was writing this I took the numbers up.
My current expectation is a general 8-16+ inches of snow across the state, with the highest amounts in eastern CT, and lowest in western and north central CT. This is subject to change as we gather more information on the amount of moisture the system will throw into the state. The plus is there because it's quite possible the numbers go up for the final call, but let's not discount the last second shift southeast either.
Bottom line: expect a high end event but the final totals are not in stone yet.
Wind & Power Outages
The forecast here is very different from what we've seen in other recent winter storms. Here, we expect both a strong pressure gradient and an explosively developing storm to produce significant wind. The wind could very well be prolific in eastern New England, but for now we want to hedge a little more conservative on wind here.
In northern CT, our current forecast is for maximum wind gusts of 35-45mph. While that's enough to meet the wind minimum for blizzard conditions, we need three consecutive hours of it for a blizzard to verify. It's unclear if that will be the case, especially in NW CT.
In southern CT, especially coastal sections, our current forecast is for maximum wind gusts of 45-55mph. Here, blizzard conditions are more likely to verify, especially in SE CT.
We don't currently expect heavy wet snow, but along the coast it's always tricky, and with higher end winds that means scattered power outages are possible. This is definitely something to watch.
Overall Impact
Folks, this is one to take seriously. The trend has rapidly moved toward a high impact event and a bona fide blizzard is on the table. As much as our first blockbuster storm was impactful, this could be even higher end due to the potential for very strong winds. That's not said to make anyone panic, but based on the information we now have, it's time to prepare. We will be watching the track trend over the coming day, and will be with you every step of the way.
Stay tuned.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
