Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Consider this the kiss of death—but I’m off to a blazing start in my two week outlooks. The first one, which covered early December verified nicely. The second, which called for a transition to less wintry conditions and dominant storm tracks to our west, verified nicely as well. I even alluded appropriately to a potential stormy period at the end of December.
Well, in this business you can’t pat yourself on the back too much. January 2017 is here, and with it we approach peak climo for both snow and cold. Right on time, we’re set to put aside the less than wintry pattern for a while and will be returning to a regime more conducive for colder than normal temperatures and winter weather event chances. Let’s take a look at climo for January.
January Climo
January is historically when interior Connecticut sees the most snow on average, though February has shown the ability to be a big snow producer.
BDL (Bradley Airport)
Jan 1 avg high—36
Jan 1 avg low—20
Jan 31 avg high—36
Jan 31 avg low—21
Jan avg snow—12.3”
Jan record snow—54.3” (2011)
BDR (Bridgeport)
Jan 1 avg high—41
Jan 1 avg low—25
Jan 31 avg high—38
Jan 31 avg low—25
Jan avg snow—7.6”
Jan record snow—26.2” (1965)
Grading the last outlook
Like I said, blazing start. Overall, the end of December pushed us over the top in terms of temperature, while the first half of December put much of Connecticut above average in terms of monthly snow (believe it or not). December finished a half degree above normal at BDL, and during the period of the last outlook, 10 of the 12 days were above normal at BDL, with 8 of those days being at least 5 degrees above normal. At BDL, a whopping .4 inches fell during that period. Let’s not talk about snow at the shoreline. As a result, I give the outlook my first A! There were winter weather events, albeit less widespread and minor, and the storm at the end of the month was not a cutter. That’s the difference between an A and A+. No complaints here.
Week one—Tuesday December 20 to Monday December 26
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence) Check
Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence) Check
Week two—Tuesday December 27 to Saturday December 31
Temperatures—above average (low confidence) Check
Precipitation—average (moderate confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence) Check
Two Week Outlook Summary
Consider this the kiss of death—but I’m off to a blazing start in my two week outlooks. The first one, which covered early December verified nicely. The second, which called for a transition to less wintry conditions and dominant storm tracks to our west, verified nicely as well. I even alluded appropriately to a potential stormy period at the end of December.
Well, in this business you can’t pat yourself on the back too much. January 2017 is here, and with it we approach peak climo for both snow and cold. Right on time, we’re set to put aside the less than wintry pattern for a while and will be returning to a regime more conducive for colder than normal temperatures and winter weather event chances. Let’s take a look at climo for January.
January Climo
January is historically when interior Connecticut sees the most snow on average, though February has shown the ability to be a big snow producer.
BDL (Bradley Airport)
Jan 1 avg high—36
Jan 1 avg low—20
Jan 31 avg high—36
Jan 31 avg low—21
Jan avg snow—12.3”
Jan record snow—54.3” (2011)
BDR (Bridgeport)
Jan 1 avg high—41
Jan 1 avg low—25
Jan 31 avg high—38
Jan 31 avg low—25
Jan avg snow—7.6”
Jan record snow—26.2” (1965)
Grading the last outlook
Like I said, blazing start. Overall, the end of December pushed us over the top in terms of temperature, while the first half of December put much of Connecticut above average in terms of monthly snow (believe it or not). December finished a half degree above normal at BDL, and during the period of the last outlook, 10 of the 12 days were above normal at BDL, with 8 of those days being at least 5 degrees above normal. At BDL, a whopping .4 inches fell during that period. Let’s not talk about snow at the shoreline. As a result, I give the outlook my first A! There were winter weather events, albeit less widespread and minor, and the storm at the end of the month was not a cutter. That’s the difference between an A and A+. No complaints here.
Week one—Tuesday December 20 to Monday December 26
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence) Check
Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence) Check
Week two—Tuesday December 27 to Saturday December 31
Temperatures—above average (low confidence) Check
Precipitation—average (moderate confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence) Check
Two Week Outlook Summary
* Note—high confidence (70% or greater belief of event occurring), moderate confidence (36-69%), low confidence (0-35%); nothing significant (less than 1” snowfall and .25” ice)
Week one—Sunday January 1 to Saturday January 7
Temperatures—near average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—above average (high confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—above average (low confidence)
As explained in my discussion, the week ahead is a roller coaster ride, with warmer than normal temperatures and rain to for the first half, and colder than normal conditions and the potential for a winter weather event by the end of the week. The weekend system bears watching, and while it is unclear whether any event falls at the end of this week or the beginning of the next forecast period (if at all) I am more willing to hedge on earlier rather than later.
Week two—Sunday January 8 to Saturday January 14
Temperatures—below average (high confidence)
Precipitation—near average (low confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—near average (low confidence)
As uncertain as the first week is with regard to temperatures and snow chances, the second week seems even more uncertain with smaller scale features. I do have higher than normal confidence that the second week of January is cold, but how cold remains to be seen. In addition, it is unclear to me what the overall ridge/trough orientation will be over the continental US, which is vital to knowing what kind of precipitation pattern we’ll be dealing with. Will we be in a pattern that suppresses storms? Has them cut west at the last minute? Will it be conducive for coastals? The guidance is already all over the place about the weekend.
Week one—Sunday January 1 to Saturday January 7
Temperatures—near average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—above average (high confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—above average (low confidence)
As explained in my discussion, the week ahead is a roller coaster ride, with warmer than normal temperatures and rain to for the first half, and colder than normal conditions and the potential for a winter weather event by the end of the week. The weekend system bears watching, and while it is unclear whether any event falls at the end of this week or the beginning of the next forecast period (if at all) I am more willing to hedge on earlier rather than later.
Week two—Sunday January 8 to Saturday January 14
Temperatures—below average (high confidence)
Precipitation—near average (low confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—near average (low confidence)
As uncertain as the first week is with regard to temperatures and snow chances, the second week seems even more uncertain with smaller scale features. I do have higher than normal confidence that the second week of January is cold, but how cold remains to be seen. In addition, it is unclear to me what the overall ridge/trough orientation will be over the continental US, which is vital to knowing what kind of precipitation pattern we’ll be dealing with. Will we be in a pattern that suppresses storms? Has them cut west at the last minute? Will it be conducive for coastals? The guidance is already all over the place about the weekend.
Technical Discussion
Week one
Happy New Year! We start off with warmer than normal temperatures through midweek and welcome a rain maker as pretty significant ridging dominates the region.
Week one
Happy New Year! We start off with warmer than normal temperatures through midweek and welcome a rain maker as pretty significant ridging dominates the region.
However, that won’t last long as the midweek storm system moves through and in its wake we get a nice push of cold air. We’re not staring down the barrel of anything truly arctic, but I think this sets the stage for what could be a significant winter weather event by weekend.
The cold will be there, but will the precip follow? That’s more uncertain than I’d like at this juncture. Right now, both the operational models and ensembles have been jumping around more than usual with regard to the Friday through Sunday period. The euro has leaned recently toward a light snow event for Connecticut by Friday, while the GFS and Canadian have bounced between a significant coastal storm bringing snow and a nonevent. I’m watching the energy what will be approaching from the western US. The Euro has been weaker with the energy out west, and develops the first wave, squashing the second (and potentially more potent) wave. The guidance has struggled handling what may be multiple waves. Will those pieces hang back causing timing issues? Will we see enough digging in the trough to get a coastal close enough to bring a storm. Right now, I lean toward an above average chance of wintry precipitation, but I could certainly be wrong here. We’ll have to wait and see.
GEFS depiction of 500mb pattern. We go from ridging to a deep trough, though it's not a terribly ideal pattern for snow lovers. A complex evolution is on tap, and I expect us to be talking about the weekend potential quite a bit this week.
Week two
Week two
GEFS temperature depictions for Hartford (above) and Bridgeport (below). Not to be taken verbatim, but they illustrate the potential for a cold, but not arctic period. Images courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics.
What happens this weekend has an impact on the outlook. Overall, it looks like the start of the second period is going to bring colder than normal temperatures, although it is unclear if this is a reinforcing shot of cold, or departing cold of a relatively stale airmass due to the track (or existence) of a low that gets close.
Assuming that a storm does develop and get close, I think the cold air push in its wake keeps the period colder than normal. If there is a system that lays down a snow pack, we could be in store for very cold low temperatures as any push would be unlikely to moderate quickly.
Some of the guidance however has alluded to the second week of the forecast period remaining active—not with big storms—but with northern stream clipper like systems. It remains unclear what kind of storm tracks we see. It could be cold and dry but we could also be in store for more minor winter weather events. For now, I lean toward near average precipitation and wintry precip, but with very low confidence.
Some of the guidance however has alluded to the second week of the forecast period remaining active—not with big storms—but with northern stream clipper like systems. It remains unclear what kind of storm tracks we see. It could be cold and dry but we could also be in store for more minor winter weather events. For now, I lean toward near average precipitation and wintry precip, but with very low confidence.
In closing, winter is coming back. I expect colder than normal temperatures and increased chances for winter weather events. This outlook is of lower confidence than the previous ones, as the guidance has had a difficult time resolving the details of the pattern that are critical to what our sensible weather will be. For now, it looks like winter isn’t going anywhere.
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts!
Thanks for reading SCW.
-DB
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts!
Thanks for reading SCW.
-DB
