Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Happy New Year!
For winter lovers, the last month of December started with great promise, but turned sour quickly with a storm that impacted the southern states and virtually no snow the rest of the month. The month started colder than normal, but warmed significantly toward the end, creating a departure of +1.5 for the month. Not warm by any stretch, but certainly not the 0-1 degree below normal our winter forecast had.
For many, December’s presentation has folks antsy about what a near snow less December means for the rest of the season. Well, although December was a bust, there are indications that we’re moving, albeit very slowly, into a more conducive pattern for colder and snowier conditions. That said, it’s hard to get worse than zero.
Happy New Year!
For winter lovers, the last month of December started with great promise, but turned sour quickly with a storm that impacted the southern states and virtually no snow the rest of the month. The month started colder than normal, but warmed significantly toward the end, creating a departure of +1.5 for the month. Not warm by any stretch, but certainly not the 0-1 degree below normal our winter forecast had.
For many, December’s presentation has folks antsy about what a near snow less December means for the rest of the season. Well, although December was a bust, there are indications that we’re moving, albeit very slowly, into a more conducive pattern for colder and snowier conditions. That said, it’s hard to get worse than zero.
As we head into January, what may the future hold? Will we see meaningful snow? Will winter stay away?
Two Week Outlook Summary
* Note—high confidence (70% “sure”), moderate confidence (45-69%), low confidence (0-44%); nothing significant (less than 1” snowfall and .25” ice)
Week one—Tuesday January 1 to Monday January 7
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—average (moderate confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence)
The first week of January isn’t necessarily a torch, but we should see above normal temperatures and at least one opportunity for precipitation. Some of it could be mixed or snow on the front end, but that is still in doubt. Overall, it’s a quiet week.
Week two—Tuesday January 8 to Monday January 14
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—average (low confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—average (low confidence)
Like the last forecast, week two of the period looks complicated, as we potentially see two systems that bring us precipitation chances. While there is moderate confidence in slightly warmer than normal temperatures, confidence in what, if any, wintry precipitation we see is low.
Technical Discussion
Week one
The new year is here and we’re still looking at a relatively active period with a new storm system approaching every few days. In the wake of our departing New Year’s Eve storm, we have colder air filtering in, but overall we’re still going to be edging right around normal or just above over the course of the week. The storm system we’re tracking is for the latter portion of the week, as a low develops to our south and potentially scrapes the state early Thursday. The trend has been toward a slightly more impactful event, with maybe a bit of snow or mixed precipitation before changing to rain, at least at the shore. It looks like another nonevent to potentially minor one for the state.
Two Week Outlook Summary
* Note—high confidence (70% “sure”), moderate confidence (45-69%), low confidence (0-44%); nothing significant (less than 1” snowfall and .25” ice)
Week one—Tuesday January 1 to Monday January 7
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—average (moderate confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence)
The first week of January isn’t necessarily a torch, but we should see above normal temperatures and at least one opportunity for precipitation. Some of it could be mixed or snow on the front end, but that is still in doubt. Overall, it’s a quiet week.
Week two—Tuesday January 8 to Monday January 14
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—average (low confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—average (low confidence)
Like the last forecast, week two of the period looks complicated, as we potentially see two systems that bring us precipitation chances. While there is moderate confidence in slightly warmer than normal temperatures, confidence in what, if any, wintry precipitation we see is low.
Technical Discussion
Week one
The new year is here and we’re still looking at a relatively active period with a new storm system approaching every few days. In the wake of our departing New Year’s Eve storm, we have colder air filtering in, but overall we’re still going to be edging right around normal or just above over the course of the week. The storm system we’re tracking is for the latter portion of the week, as a low develops to our south and potentially scrapes the state early Thursday. The trend has been toward a slightly more impactful event, with maybe a bit of snow or mixed precipitation before changing to rain, at least at the shore. It looks like another nonevent to potentially minor one for the state.
As you will see from the GFS Ensembles above, a wave pushes through the region toward the latter half of the week. Unfortunately, even the waves that run underneath haven’t been working with a strong cold air mass, with the result being rain.
Unlike the last few weeks, the pattern, at least for New England, seems to be shifting ever so slowly away from a total shutout pattern. For winter lovers and haters alike, that’s not a call for a flip to big cold or snow, but as we head into peak climatology for snowfall and our coldest highs, it does not take an excellent pattern for wintry precipitation to fall.
Week two
Week two of the forecast period is more complicated. There is a full blown model war between the ensembles of the GFS and European model, and it is unclear how things will shake out. The GEFS has been faster in bringing about a pattern that is more conducive for cold air intrusions and storminess, while the European ensembles have shown the opposite, with a hostile Pacific pattern. Even so, next week at least currently looks somewhat interesting with two potential precipitation events and possible cold air lingering.
Unlike the last few weeks, the pattern, at least for New England, seems to be shifting ever so slowly away from a total shutout pattern. For winter lovers and haters alike, that’s not a call for a flip to big cold or snow, but as we head into peak climatology for snowfall and our coldest highs, it does not take an excellent pattern for wintry precipitation to fall.
Week two
Week two of the forecast period is more complicated. There is a full blown model war between the ensembles of the GFS and European model, and it is unclear how things will shake out. The GEFS has been faster in bringing about a pattern that is more conducive for cold air intrusions and storminess, while the European ensembles have shown the opposite, with a hostile Pacific pattern. Even so, next week at least currently looks somewhat interesting with two potential precipitation events and possible cold air lingering.
Above you can see the differences in the EPS and GEFS. Look at the Pacific and western US. In order for the northeast to move toward a more wintry pattern, we need to see more ridging in the west that would promote the development of colder air in our source regions and the kind of troughing in the east that would get storms to drive under the region rather than to the west.
Truthfully, I’m noncommittal on the pattern moving forward. We’ve seek quite a bit of volatility in the pattern because of an ongoing Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE). In the past, these events have translated toward colder weather patterns in the northern hemisphere as the polar vortex is under attack. It is unclear how much downstream impact there is for our sensible weather, and anything that happens would likely have its greatest impact in the latter half of the month through early February, a period we identified in our winter outlook as the possible peak of the season.
Overall, the shutout pattern is ending, but we’re still a ways away from being in a decidedly more wintry pattern. My sense is that temperatures are slightly above normal during the period, and our active period of wet weather continues with multiple storm chances. Whether those turn into meaningful winter weather events remains to be seen, but next week looks better than this one.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading and trusting SCW.
-DB
Truthfully, I’m noncommittal on the pattern moving forward. We’ve seek quite a bit of volatility in the pattern because of an ongoing Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE). In the past, these events have translated toward colder weather patterns in the northern hemisphere as the polar vortex is under attack. It is unclear how much downstream impact there is for our sensible weather, and anything that happens would likely have its greatest impact in the latter half of the month through early February, a period we identified in our winter outlook as the possible peak of the season.
Overall, the shutout pattern is ending, but we’re still a ways away from being in a decidedly more wintry pattern. My sense is that temperatures are slightly above normal during the period, and our active period of wet weather continues with multiple storm chances. Whether those turn into meaningful winter weather events remains to be seen, but next week looks better than this one.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading and trusting SCW.
-DB
