Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather.
I’m a few days late, but it’s time to grade my last outlook and talk about the next two weeks. Before doing so, I wanted to take a moment to reset expectations.
There has been a fair amount of talk about this winter being a bust, but the data does not back that perception up. It is important to know that a winter that is cold and snowy from start to finish is very rare in Connecticut. While the larger hemispheric pattern can often remain persistent, the factors that bring cold/warm and wet/dry conditions to our region vary quite a bit. So far, this is what we’ve seen.
Hartford
Normal snow to date: 16.8”
Observed snow to date: 15.8”
Observed snow last year at this date: 1.8”
December temperature departure: +0.5
January temperature departure: +4.5
Bridgeport
Normal snow to date: 10.7”
Observed snow to date: 14.5”
Observed snow last year at this date: 1.5”
December temperature departure: +2.4
January temperature departure: +4.7
If you like winter, this year is a marked change from the last two, where there was barely any cold or snow. Although we are warmer and slightly below normal in Hartford, we are above normal in snow in southern Connecticut!
The last few days have significantly increased the monthly temperature, and the next few days will only take those temperatures up
Grading the last outlook
I had to cool off at some point. Overall, my outlook was meh. I busted on temperatures in both weeks, but called for a significant event at the end of the first period, which happened. Almost immediately after I posted my last outlook, I knew I’d bust on temperatures. Not cool. As a result, I give this last outlook a C+.
Week one—Sunday January 1 to Saturday January 7
Temperatures—near average (moderate confidence) Miss
Precipitation—above average (high confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—above average (low confidence) Check
Week two—Sunday January 8 to Saturday January 14
Temperatures—below average (high confidence) Fail
Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Miss
Two Week Summary
I’m a few days late, but it’s time to grade my last outlook and talk about the next two weeks. Before doing so, I wanted to take a moment to reset expectations.
There has been a fair amount of talk about this winter being a bust, but the data does not back that perception up. It is important to know that a winter that is cold and snowy from start to finish is very rare in Connecticut. While the larger hemispheric pattern can often remain persistent, the factors that bring cold/warm and wet/dry conditions to our region vary quite a bit. So far, this is what we’ve seen.
Hartford
Normal snow to date: 16.8”
Observed snow to date: 15.8”
Observed snow last year at this date: 1.8”
December temperature departure: +0.5
January temperature departure: +4.5
Bridgeport
Normal snow to date: 10.7”
Observed snow to date: 14.5”
Observed snow last year at this date: 1.5”
December temperature departure: +2.4
January temperature departure: +4.7
If you like winter, this year is a marked change from the last two, where there was barely any cold or snow. Although we are warmer and slightly below normal in Hartford, we are above normal in snow in southern Connecticut!
The last few days have significantly increased the monthly temperature, and the next few days will only take those temperatures up
Grading the last outlook
I had to cool off at some point. Overall, my outlook was meh. I busted on temperatures in both weeks, but called for a significant event at the end of the first period, which happened. Almost immediately after I posted my last outlook, I knew I’d bust on temperatures. Not cool. As a result, I give this last outlook a C+.
Week one—Sunday January 1 to Saturday January 7
Temperatures—near average (moderate confidence) Miss
Precipitation—above average (high confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—above average (low confidence) Check
Week two—Sunday January 8 to Saturday January 14
Temperatures—below average (high confidence) Fail
Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Miss
Two Week Summary
* Note—high confidence (70% or greater belief of event occurring), moderate confidence (36-69%), low confidence (0-35%); nothing significant (less than 1” snowfall and .25” ice)
Forecast period—Friday January 20 to Tuesday January 31
Temperatures—above average (high confidence)
Precipitation—above average (high confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—below average (high confidence)
In a slight departure from my usual format, I am covering the entire period in one section. This might be the easiest forecast of the winter. We torch to end the last third of January and turn our eyes toward a significant pattern shift by the end of the month. We also watch a significant storm that will impact the region in the next few days. It will be a rain maker for most if not all of the state. Afterward, we begin a gradual cool down and begin to watch a potentially more active pattern with the northern stream, opening the door for clippers.
Technical Discussion
First, let’s talk about the pattern that’s been. It hasn’t been pretty if you love winter.
Forecast period—Friday January 20 to Tuesday January 31
Temperatures—above average (high confidence)
Precipitation—above average (high confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—below average (high confidence)
In a slight departure from my usual format, I am covering the entire period in one section. This might be the easiest forecast of the winter. We torch to end the last third of January and turn our eyes toward a significant pattern shift by the end of the month. We also watch a significant storm that will impact the region in the next few days. It will be a rain maker for most if not all of the state. Afterward, we begin a gradual cool down and begin to watch a potentially more active pattern with the northern stream, opening the door for clippers.
Technical Discussion
First, let’s talk about the pattern that’s been. It hasn’t been pretty if you love winter.
There has been a very strong area of troughing and lower heights over the west coast and Alaska. That’s usually a death knell for wintry conditions around here. That looks to persist for a while longer.
By Monday and Tuesday, we are dealing with a significant storm. The track is to our south, yet we are likely dealing with a rain and wind storm. Our team will have more detail about it, but this could be quite a storm with very heavy rain and windy conditions that could be damaging in spots. Stay tuned.
By Monday and Tuesday, we are dealing with a significant storm. The track is to our south, yet we are likely dealing with a rain and wind storm. Our team will have more detail about it, but this could be quite a storm with very heavy rain and windy conditions that could be damaging in spots. Stay tuned.
In the wake of this event, the guidance has honed in on a pattern change. We’ve been tracking this potential for almost a week now, and while I am skeptical of any type of forecast in the medium to long range, I think there is a growing consensus on the very end of January and start of February returning to a colder and potentially more active pattern.
So to close, winter hasn’t been as bad as some might think. We’ve had a warm run for sure, but in terms of snow, we’ve been near to slightly above normal. The warm pattern continues for now, as the large scale pattern prepares to reshuffle for early February.
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts!
Thanks for reading SCW.
-DB
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts!
Thanks for reading SCW.
-DB
