What a difference two weeks make. We have moved from potential pattern change, to pattern change, to the waiting game, to production (for most). Now, our pattern is changing back to an above normal regime, and we all turn our eyes to what February holds.
Grading the last Outlook
Grading the last Outlook
Precipitation departure from normal the last two weeks courtesy of the Northeast Regional Climate Center
Temperature departure from normal for the last two weeks courtesy of the Northeast Regional Climate Center
Week one—Friday January 15 to Thursday January 21
Temperatures—below average (moderate confidence) Wrong
Precipitation—average (low confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—normal (low confidence) Check
Week two—Friday January 22 to Thursday January 28
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence) Check
Precipitation—average (moderate confidence) Wrong
Wintry Precipitation—normal (low confidence) Check
I think this outlook faired better, even though I missed a bit on total precipitation. In week one, the two systems that I wrote about ended up occurring. The first system was a warm rainer, and the second system (the scraper blizzard) happened at the very start of the second week. As I thought, the second event was the potential event worth following, and the pattern did relax after the massive east coast event, which has brought us into a warmer regime. As an aside, I have been quite surprised by how warm and dry we have been during meteorological winter. Overall grade: B+
Two Week Outlook Summary
Week one—Friday January 15 to Thursday January 21
Temperatures—below average (moderate confidence) Wrong
Precipitation—average (low confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—normal (low confidence) Check
Week two—Friday January 22 to Thursday January 28
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence) Check
Precipitation—average (moderate confidence) Wrong
Wintry Precipitation—normal (low confidence) Check
I think this outlook faired better, even though I missed a bit on total precipitation. In week one, the two systems that I wrote about ended up occurring. The first system was a warm rainer, and the second system (the scraper blizzard) happened at the very start of the second week. As I thought, the second event was the potential event worth following, and the pattern did relax after the massive east coast event, which has brought us into a warmer regime. As an aside, I have been quite surprised by how warm and dry we have been during meteorological winter. Overall grade: B+
Two Week Outlook Summary
* Note—high confidence (70% or greater belief of event occurring), moderate confidence (36-69%), low confidence (0-35%); nothing significant (less than 1” snowfall and .25” ice)
Week one—Friday January 29 to Thursday February 4
Temperatures—above average (high confidence)
Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—below normal (moderate confidence)
With the passage of the Blizzard of 2016, which was listed as the fourth most impactful winter storm to hit the east coast in modern times just today, the pattern has relaxed. Overall, the signal looks warmer and perhaps a touch drier, with a chance of light mixed precipitation on Friday, and a signal for a storm that cuts to our west (meaning warm and wet conditions) by the middle of next week.
Week two—Friday February 5 to Thursday February 11
Temperatures—average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—average (low confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—normal (low confidence)
By week two, the transient pattern that brings us warmth begins to fade away, moving back toward what I think will be a pattern that favors colder temperatures and storminess for the rest of the period. There could be a period of interest at the very end of the period, but confidence is (obviously) low at this time as this system, much like the scraper blizzard at long range, looks to be far south at this time.
Technical Discussion
Week one
After a blizzard that hit a large part of the east coast, but scraped New England, we return to a warmer than normal regime. Like I have said in the past, warmer temperatures do not automatically preclude wintry precipitation from falling, but in this setup, wintry precipitation looks unlikely outside of Friday and maybe the weekend. If you have been following us for a while, you probably already know what to look for.
Week one—Friday January 29 to Thursday February 4
Temperatures—above average (high confidence)
Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—below normal (moderate confidence)
With the passage of the Blizzard of 2016, which was listed as the fourth most impactful winter storm to hit the east coast in modern times just today, the pattern has relaxed. Overall, the signal looks warmer and perhaps a touch drier, with a chance of light mixed precipitation on Friday, and a signal for a storm that cuts to our west (meaning warm and wet conditions) by the middle of next week.
Week two—Friday February 5 to Thursday February 11
Temperatures—average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—average (low confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—normal (low confidence)
By week two, the transient pattern that brings us warmth begins to fade away, moving back toward what I think will be a pattern that favors colder temperatures and storminess for the rest of the period. There could be a period of interest at the very end of the period, but confidence is (obviously) low at this time as this system, much like the scraper blizzard at long range, looks to be far south at this time.
Technical Discussion
Week one
After a blizzard that hit a large part of the east coast, but scraped New England, we return to a warmer than normal regime. Like I have said in the past, warmer temperatures do not automatically preclude wintry precipitation from falling, but in this setup, wintry precipitation looks unlikely outside of Friday and maybe the weekend. If you have been following us for a while, you probably already know what to look for.
Above you see one of today’s run of the European ensembles, or EPS. Remember, that this is a snapshot in time, and uses slight tweaks in initialization conditions when a model runs to account for inherent errors in predicting atmospheric conditions that occur the further out you go in time.
What are we looking at? We see a move toward higher heights over New England (the red shading) and ridging (lines pointing poleward) which would allow for warmer conditions. In addition, you see troughing and colder air located out west, opening the door for storm tracks that are less than ideal if you like snow in the east.
In the second image, you see the American, or GFS Ensembles for accumulated snow moving forward. You see the various outcomes on the individual models, but pay attention to the last image. That is the ensemble mean, and it shows almost no accumulated snow. This reflects a weak signal for snow over the next seven days.
Going back to the first image, you can see that by the end of the forecast period, the troughing begins to push west. The Pacific pattern begins to look better, and that brings us to week two…
Week two
What are we looking at? We see a move toward higher heights over New England (the red shading) and ridging (lines pointing poleward) which would allow for warmer conditions. In addition, you see troughing and colder air located out west, opening the door for storm tracks that are less than ideal if you like snow in the east.
In the second image, you see the American, or GFS Ensembles for accumulated snow moving forward. You see the various outcomes on the individual models, but pay attention to the last image. That is the ensemble mean, and it shows almost no accumulated snow. This reflects a weak signal for snow over the next seven days.
Going back to the first image, you can see that by the end of the forecast period, the troughing begins to push west. The Pacific pattern begins to look better, and that brings us to week two…
Week two
By the second week, we see a strong signal for ridging in the west, which implies a +PNA and neutral to -EPO. This is a signal for shots of cold air intrusions and opens the door for northern stream systems (think clippers) to provide light events for the region. When I see the long range pattern in the west, I think of a far less extreme version of last winter. In the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) do not look as robust as what we saw in January, but not outright hostile either. If we are looking for a big storm, generally you want to see a negative phase of the AO and NAO to provide storms with the ability to amplify and ride up the coast. We will see if that happens.
Above you will see the GEFS output for high and low temperatures during the period. Remember, this should only be read to identify a pattern, not sensible weather on a given day. The GEFS supports the idea of a warmer than normal pattern turning colder by the second week of the forecast period. Images courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics.
The image below is the second half of the GEFS run for accumulated snowfall. Here, you see a stronger signal for accumulated snow in week two of the forecast period, but it is not terribly strong with plenty of solutions showing little snow.
Much like the last outlook, this one had something for everyone. Week one provides warmer than normal temperatures for those that are already tired of this winter, and the second week opens the door for a return to a favorable pattern for cold and storminess. As a result of the blizzard, Connecticut has become the dividing line for normal this season. In southern Connecticut, many have made up their seasonal snowfall deficit or come close to getting to normal. In northern Connecticut, a season without (substantial) snow continues.
I do believe that February becomes an active month and a colder month, but for now, warmer and drier rules the roost.
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts!
Thanks for reading SCW.
-DB
The image below is the second half of the GEFS run for accumulated snowfall. Here, you see a stronger signal for accumulated snow in week two of the forecast period, but it is not terribly strong with plenty of solutions showing little snow.
Much like the last outlook, this one had something for everyone. Week one provides warmer than normal temperatures for those that are already tired of this winter, and the second week opens the door for a return to a favorable pattern for cold and storminess. As a result of the blizzard, Connecticut has become the dividing line for normal this season. In southern Connecticut, many have made up their seasonal snowfall deficit or come close to getting to normal. In northern Connecticut, a season without (substantial) snow continues.
I do believe that February becomes an active month and a colder month, but for now, warmer and drier rules the roost.
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts!
Thanks for reading SCW.
-DB
