Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Welp, winter arrived in force. We had a week that put us squarely on track to finish the meteorological winter near normal with regard to snowfall. However, winter’s stay, as it has been for much of the season, was brief. We’re already looking at a period of above to well above normal temperatures and no legitimate winter weather events in sight. This’ll be a short outlook.
Grading my last outlook
Unlike our temperatures, I’ve cooled off since my hot start at the beginning of meteorological winter. It’s not that I got beaten overwhelmingly this time around, but I definitely missed in week two with regard to our wintry period. In my defense, I did say that that week was really low confidence. Overall, I give my outlook a B-.
Week one—Wednesday February 1 to Tuesday February 7
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence) Check
Precipitation—near average (high confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence) Check
Week two—Wednesday February 8 to Tuesday February 14
Temperatures—above average (low confidence) Fail
Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Fail
Wintry Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Fail
Forecast Period Outlook Summary
* Note—high confidence (70% or greater belief of event occurring), moderate confidence (36-69%), low confidence (0-35%); nothing significant (less than 1” snowfall and .25” ice)
Forecast period—Saturday February 18 to Tuesday February 28
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—above average (moderate confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence)
It looks like a reprieve from winter is here and will last the rest of the month. There could be a sneaky cold shot at the beginning of next week, but overall, it looks like a warmup is coming and it could be a significant one. As we head into the last few days of February however, we could be looking at signs of a return to cooler conditions. In terms of precipitation, I expect an active period. Right now however, it looks like we’re talking more wet than white, with the predominant storm track being one that cuts to our west. It’s been that kind of winter. That said, we saw last week how a well timed storm and pattern could produce in a big way. I’m leaving the door open for a potential return to winter after our warmup.
Technical Discussion
Welp, winter arrived in force. We had a week that put us squarely on track to finish the meteorological winter near normal with regard to snowfall. However, winter’s stay, as it has been for much of the season, was brief. We’re already looking at a period of above to well above normal temperatures and no legitimate winter weather events in sight. This’ll be a short outlook.
Grading my last outlook
Unlike our temperatures, I’ve cooled off since my hot start at the beginning of meteorological winter. It’s not that I got beaten overwhelmingly this time around, but I definitely missed in week two with regard to our wintry period. In my defense, I did say that that week was really low confidence. Overall, I give my outlook a B-.
Week one—Wednesday February 1 to Tuesday February 7
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence) Check
Precipitation—near average (high confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence) Check
Week two—Wednesday February 8 to Tuesday February 14
Temperatures—above average (low confidence) Fail
Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Fail
Wintry Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Fail
Forecast Period Outlook Summary
* Note—high confidence (70% or greater belief of event occurring), moderate confidence (36-69%), low confidence (0-35%); nothing significant (less than 1” snowfall and .25” ice)
Forecast period—Saturday February 18 to Tuesday February 28
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—above average (moderate confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence)
It looks like a reprieve from winter is here and will last the rest of the month. There could be a sneaky cold shot at the beginning of next week, but overall, it looks like a warmup is coming and it could be a significant one. As we head into the last few days of February however, we could be looking at signs of a return to cooler conditions. In terms of precipitation, I expect an active period. Right now however, it looks like we’re talking more wet than white, with the predominant storm track being one that cuts to our west. It’s been that kind of winter. That said, we saw last week how a well timed storm and pattern could produce in a big way. I’m leaving the door open for a potential return to winter after our warmup.
Technical Discussion
Looking at the GEFS above, it's easy to see why I think we're in a likely warmup phase. For the overwhelming majority of the period, we're either warm or approaching torch territory. Nothing like the midwest though, which will see temperatures at least 15-20 degrees above normal for a period.
Since the 9th, Hartford has received nearly 22 inches of snow! Not bad. The pattern gave us a short taste of what can be done when you have a good upper level pattern. That resulted in a series of powerful storms that buried much of New England in feet of snow. However, that window has since closed. Now, we’re looking at ridging setup to our south.
Since the 9th, Hartford has received nearly 22 inches of snow! Not bad. The pattern gave us a short taste of what can be done when you have a good upper level pattern. That resulted in a series of powerful storms that buried much of New England in feet of snow. However, that window has since closed. Now, we’re looking at ridging setup to our south.
The 00z EPS went big with the pattern switch to a warmup. By mid week, we have a very impressive area of ridging and higher heights right in our area. That is a strong signal. As the month begins to wind down however, it looks like we go toward more of a zonal flow, which may open the door for a cooler and more active period. Maybe.
Images above and below courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics.
I do think we become more active, but as I mentioned earlier, I think the preferred track of low pressure systems will be to our west. With not much cold in place during this period, I expect the majority of those systems to be all rain. Hard to rule out a brief period of mixed precipitation at onset if conditions are right, but as of this post, I don't see anything significant on the horizon in terms of wintry weather.
With meteorological winter winding down, this may be the last two week outlook for the season. I'll reevaluate the pattern once we get to March.
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Thanks for reading SCW.
-DB
With meteorological winter winding down, this may be the last two week outlook for the season. I'll reevaluate the pattern once we get to March.
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts!
Thanks for reading SCW.
-DB
