On the current weather map, low pressure, which is now quite weak, from what used to be Hermine (honestly it is such a good thing not to have to hear from her anymore), is located just south of Montauk Point. Weakening high pressure is located near Mount Washington. This high is partially responsible for keeping Hermine in our neck of the woods. As the remnants of Hermine gradually die, as does the high up North, a different high pressure system over Georgia, extending into the Western Atlantic Ridge, will take over. This will bring hot weather back into our region.
Tonight: A generally cloudy and muggy night. A few showers may move north to south, as the remnants of Hermine spin down, but this activity should end after midnight. Temperatures will be well above normal, with low temperatures in the 65 to 70 degree range.
Tomorrow: Will keep the day part of the forecast dry. With a pretty strong west or west-southwesterly flow, there won't be any sea breeze concerns. It will be very warm, with high temperatures in the mid 80s.
Tomorrow Night/Friday: A little shortwave trough, combined with the very warm air mass, will serve as a weak trigger for showers and thunderstorms to form. The best chances in our area will be at or just before midnight. There may not be any thunderstorms at all along coastal locations. The best chances will be inland and over elevated locations. On Friday, warm weather will continue, with temperatures even a few degrees higher than those of Thursday. High temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s, with the potential for a few places in the I 91 corridor to touch 90 degrees!
Longer Term- the weekend and beyond: For Saturday, attention turns to an approaching cold front. It will be dry most of the day, but there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, starting after dinner time. High temperatures should be close to 80 degrees. There is pretty good model agreement on some soaking rains for most of Saturday night, as a strong cold front approaches and encounters resistance from the Western Atlantic Ridge, which will slow the front's progress.
Sunday looks to be the best day of the weekend. High temperatures should be near 80 degrees- close to the same as Saturday, but with much lower humidity. In fact, the rest of the long term looks pretty quiet, with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s and low 60s, with no rain chances.
Looking further ahead, I do think the Western Atlantic Ridge will poke its nose into our area again, perhaps out toward the 20th of the month, with more warm to hot weather, although perhaps not quite as hot, since after all, climatological temperatures get significantly cooler as September goes on.
The tropics are pretty quiet. There is a tropical wave that has just emerged off the coast of Africa. It is actually expected to develop fairly rapidly as it moves into the Atlantic. It's way too early to speculate if this would have any effects on our state, but given its current location, any effects would be ten days away anyway.
Now, let's take a look at two systems slated to affect the area this week. First, here's the shortwave for tomorrow night.
Tonight: A generally cloudy and muggy night. A few showers may move north to south, as the remnants of Hermine spin down, but this activity should end after midnight. Temperatures will be well above normal, with low temperatures in the 65 to 70 degree range.
Tomorrow: Will keep the day part of the forecast dry. With a pretty strong west or west-southwesterly flow, there won't be any sea breeze concerns. It will be very warm, with high temperatures in the mid 80s.
Tomorrow Night/Friday: A little shortwave trough, combined with the very warm air mass, will serve as a weak trigger for showers and thunderstorms to form. The best chances in our area will be at or just before midnight. There may not be any thunderstorms at all along coastal locations. The best chances will be inland and over elevated locations. On Friday, warm weather will continue, with temperatures even a few degrees higher than those of Thursday. High temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s, with the potential for a few places in the I 91 corridor to touch 90 degrees!
Longer Term- the weekend and beyond: For Saturday, attention turns to an approaching cold front. It will be dry most of the day, but there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, starting after dinner time. High temperatures should be close to 80 degrees. There is pretty good model agreement on some soaking rains for most of Saturday night, as a strong cold front approaches and encounters resistance from the Western Atlantic Ridge, which will slow the front's progress.
Sunday looks to be the best day of the weekend. High temperatures should be near 80 degrees- close to the same as Saturday, but with much lower humidity. In fact, the rest of the long term looks pretty quiet, with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s and low 60s, with no rain chances.
Looking further ahead, I do think the Western Atlantic Ridge will poke its nose into our area again, perhaps out toward the 20th of the month, with more warm to hot weather, although perhaps not quite as hot, since after all, climatological temperatures get significantly cooler as September goes on.
The tropics are pretty quiet. There is a tropical wave that has just emerged off the coast of Africa. It is actually expected to develop fairly rapidly as it moves into the Atlantic. It's way too early to speculate if this would have any effects on our state, but given its current location, any effects would be ten days away anyway.
Now, let's take a look at two systems slated to affect the area this week. First, here's the shortwave for tomorrow night.
As you can see, there really isn't much activity with this system. The best chance is up across the NW hills. Then there is some activity along the south coast, probably generated by convergence along whatever weak sea breeze boundary could set up. First off, with the sea breeze being very weak and the fact that sea breeze convection is often isolated to begin with, there is a low chance that the entire south coast will get something like that map shows. Next, let's take a look at the cold front slated to move through the state Saturday night.
On this image, you can see Connecticut is already getting good rains, and there is a lot more to come over PA and NJ. The cold front, which you can see tracing the red "570" thickness line is still in Western PA and NY at that hour. That could be a legitimate soaking rain event, something our state desperately needs. Anyway, that's all for now- have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
-GP!
