So getting into the details... A Tornado Watch has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the NW Hills until 7 PM. The entire state is in an enhanced risk for severe t-storms, and more watches are likely later, as this complex heads SE.
There is a strong threat for wind, supported by winds aloft. Many cells will contain svr winds. Some may contain wind gusts up to 80 MPH!
The freezing level is not super high. In addition, any cells will be capable of producing many updrafts. This combo yields to widespread hail potential, w/some potential for vry lrg hail, i.e. 2"+ in diameter in the strongest cells.
And yes, with a warm frontal boundary stuck over SE CT and a cold front approaching from the NW, that combination is enough to produce rotation in the atmosphere and, as such, some of the stronger cells will be capable of producing tornadoes. The map blw shows the first Tor watch of the day, but as I said, more could be needed later.
Now for the rest of the week into the weekend...
More rain and thunderstorms will be likely both Friday and Saturday. Tomorrow's storms should be more of a diurnal/air mass type. At this time, it appears the frontal zone will be too far S of the state to allow for widespread strong to svr storms here, and that should remain to our S and SW. Hwvr, I do want to make two points abt that: First, this is not set in stone... the boundary could easily be further N than models currently have. Secondly, in a warm, humid air mass, any storms can become strong to severe.
On Sat, we shift modes into more of an all-day kind of rain, as the frontal boundary combines with the remnants of Laura to give us potentially heavy rain. There will still be imbedded thunderstorms, but as of right now, once again, it appears the main svr threat is to our S and/or SW. Hwvr, that could also still change, so stay tuned for updates.
Very beautiful weather should move in for Sunday and Monday, as this frontal boundary finally sags S of the region. By day, temperatures should not even reach 80 degrees. In fact, the nights may even feel a bit cool in the NW hills!
Tuesday through possibly all the way until Thursday, more unsettled weather will move into the area. Models are unclear on the exact evolution of this sys, but it appears something like a coastal, with all day rain, heavy at times, evolving into a diurnal t-storm, locally strong thing after warm frontal passage. If that's the case, then these three days will start cool and gradually trend warmer and more humid.
There appears to be a stronger signal than normal for unsettled weather as we continue into the long range. Frontal zones, as the first cool high pressure systems of fall fight with the offshore Bermuda Ridge, appear to stall near the area, which would result in storminess more days than not. OF course, every day wl not be a washout.
Stay tuned for updates on watches and warnings as today evolves and stay safe!