Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon

Good afternoon from SCW! We're tracking the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Let's take a quick look at the setup.
Looking at the radar, you can currently see a cluster of storms coming into range in Northwest Maine from Canada. While seemingly innocent to us now, the track and development of this convective system, combined with the cells in upstate NY, will have a strong influence on what we see later in the day in our region, as it will impact the placement of any mixing in the atmosphere above us and the placement of the shortwave expected to move through later today; two key ingredients for the expected severe weather

Our storms are expected to develop later in the day, originating in eastern NY and PA and tracking east into the region. Unlike some of our recent severe events, this will likely be a bit more localized, with smaller cells as opposed to one consolidated line. The ultimate track and placement of these cells will depend on where the frontal boundary sets up, with some guidance favoring it's placement south of us and some guidance putting us in the bullseye, such as the simulated radar image from the Hi-res NAM that's shown below.

As of now, I expect severe storms to begin breaking out from the mid afternoon on, with the bulk of the activity from the late afternoon through the evening. Activity could continue as late as midnight. The primary threat for severe weather is strong winds, but some small hail is possible as well. As such, the SPC has placed the entire state in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.
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We'll be watching the radar throughout the day and will update on Facebook and Twitter as necessary. Keep an eye to the sky throughout the day, and remember, when thunder roars, go indoors! Have a great day and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA