Disc: Good to be back here at Southern CT WX! We have a very strong -NAO about to form ad record NHEM snowcover. Models do best in stable and climatologically normal patterns. The ucpoming pattern is anything but that.
Currently: High press offshore and a warm front extending from MN to WV should mean warmer wx, at least in the very near term.
Tonight: A bit tricky on temps tonight. Initially, we should have good radiational cooling conditions. However, clouds will increase in the 2nd half of the night. So low temps could wind up being before midnight. I want low temps to reflect post-midnight temps. The NBM temps are cumulative overnight lows and are likely occurring before midnight. Therefore, I went about 5 deg warmer than the NBM thruout the night and have temps around 40. Any rain should hold off until well after daybreak, so the nighttime fcst will just call for increasing clouds. A breezy S wind should also develop by dawn.
Tomorrow: Rain much of the day, w/the steadiest and heaviest early aftn W CT and late aftn E CT. As for temps, I went a bit below guidance, due to clouds, rain, and S flow (for the S coast). If there is any lull in the rain, temps could surge higher than what I have in the fcst- which is low to mid 50s, except I am trying to incorporate a slightly warmer section interior Fairfield County. While the chance of an imbedded t-storm is not zero, it is too low to include in the fcst. Winds will be gusty out of the S and could gust to 40 MPH at times.
Tomorrow Night/Sun: Modest CAA behind the storm, so no big winds. Clearing and cooler. Went a smidge above guidance, esp I 91 corridor, w/some downsloping possible. Highs should be mostly in the mid 40s, w/a few upper 40s possible in the usual warm spots.
Long Term (Mon and beyond): We'll continue to see generally unsettled wx w/a gradual major pattern change. Models have been waffling greatly run to run, so confidence lowers dramatically each day.
Monday: Clouds increase ahead of next sys, but I think we can run w/a dry fcst. It will be generally a bit warmer than normal. Went fairly close to guidance, w/highs generally in the upper 40s.
Tuesday: Rain should arrive by aftn. There is some disagreement w/models regarding timing of the rain, but the time has been a bit faster, so I feel confident putting it in the aftn period. NBM looks WAYYYY too warm on temps, as the consensus is for a slower warm fropa. So I went significantly lower on temps, w/mostly upper 40s expected.
Wed: Warm front will go thru and most of the rain should end by around midday. Showers will still be possible thereafter, as we switch modes from stratiform to convective. I do not want to get cute w/timing on day 5, so I left it generic. Much closer to guidance temps, just a smidge lower in my fcst, with generally 50-55 predicted. This is another day that could surge a bit warmer, esp interior Fairfield, if the rain ends early.
Thu: Confidence begins to lower here. Either way, Thu should be a pretty nice day, in between systems. W/confidence lowering, I followed guidance temps pretty closely, and have highs around 50.
Fri: Next sys affects the area Thu night into Fri. There is huge disagreement w/this sys, w/solutions ranging from a cutter and a rain storm to suppression and nothing at all. There is also a chance that this takes a track favorable for something other than rain. This is where the block may start affecting things, so confidence lowers dramatically. For now, my temps are higher and POPS similar to NBM, w/ptyps following climo, only to reflect continuity with Thu's fcst as a starting pt.
LR; Models have been flopping like fish out of water w/the exact details, but a very neg NAO is about to form, which will wreak havoc on the pattern. I do not want to go into too many details because of low confidence, but confidence that the fcst will be rather interesting is higher than normal.
The only map I am giving you today, since we do have several rain storms in the next 5 days, but none are too impressive, is the GFS ENS fcst showing the neg NAO development over Greenland.
Currently: High press offshore and a warm front extending from MN to WV should mean warmer wx, at least in the very near term.
Tonight: A bit tricky on temps tonight. Initially, we should have good radiational cooling conditions. However, clouds will increase in the 2nd half of the night. So low temps could wind up being before midnight. I want low temps to reflect post-midnight temps. The NBM temps are cumulative overnight lows and are likely occurring before midnight. Therefore, I went about 5 deg warmer than the NBM thruout the night and have temps around 40. Any rain should hold off until well after daybreak, so the nighttime fcst will just call for increasing clouds. A breezy S wind should also develop by dawn.
Tomorrow: Rain much of the day, w/the steadiest and heaviest early aftn W CT and late aftn E CT. As for temps, I went a bit below guidance, due to clouds, rain, and S flow (for the S coast). If there is any lull in the rain, temps could surge higher than what I have in the fcst- which is low to mid 50s, except I am trying to incorporate a slightly warmer section interior Fairfield County. While the chance of an imbedded t-storm is not zero, it is too low to include in the fcst. Winds will be gusty out of the S and could gust to 40 MPH at times.
Tomorrow Night/Sun: Modest CAA behind the storm, so no big winds. Clearing and cooler. Went a smidge above guidance, esp I 91 corridor, w/some downsloping possible. Highs should be mostly in the mid 40s, w/a few upper 40s possible in the usual warm spots.
Long Term (Mon and beyond): We'll continue to see generally unsettled wx w/a gradual major pattern change. Models have been waffling greatly run to run, so confidence lowers dramatically each day.
Monday: Clouds increase ahead of next sys, but I think we can run w/a dry fcst. It will be generally a bit warmer than normal. Went fairly close to guidance, w/highs generally in the upper 40s.
Tuesday: Rain should arrive by aftn. There is some disagreement w/models regarding timing of the rain, but the time has been a bit faster, so I feel confident putting it in the aftn period. NBM looks WAYYYY too warm on temps, as the consensus is for a slower warm fropa. So I went significantly lower on temps, w/mostly upper 40s expected.
Wed: Warm front will go thru and most of the rain should end by around midday. Showers will still be possible thereafter, as we switch modes from stratiform to convective. I do not want to get cute w/timing on day 5, so I left it generic. Much closer to guidance temps, just a smidge lower in my fcst, with generally 50-55 predicted. This is another day that could surge a bit warmer, esp interior Fairfield, if the rain ends early.
Thu: Confidence begins to lower here. Either way, Thu should be a pretty nice day, in between systems. W/confidence lowering, I followed guidance temps pretty closely, and have highs around 50.
Fri: Next sys affects the area Thu night into Fri. There is huge disagreement w/this sys, w/solutions ranging from a cutter and a rain storm to suppression and nothing at all. There is also a chance that this takes a track favorable for something other than rain. This is where the block may start affecting things, so confidence lowers dramatically. For now, my temps are higher and POPS similar to NBM, w/ptyps following climo, only to reflect continuity with Thu's fcst as a starting pt.
LR; Models have been flopping like fish out of water w/the exact details, but a very neg NAO is about to form, which will wreak havoc on the pattern. I do not want to go into too many details because of low confidence, but confidence that the fcst will be rather interesting is higher than normal.
The only map I am giving you today, since we do have several rain storms in the next 5 days, but none are too impressive, is the GFS ENS fcst showing the neg NAO development over Greenland.
That's all for now, take care!
-GP!
-GP!
