NOTE TO READERS: THIS IS A BRIEF, STORM SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION TO GET SOMETHING OUT EARLY. A LARGER DISCUSSION, INCLUDING BEFORE AND AFTER THE STORM, PLUS A LARGER STORM SECTION, WILL BE RELEASED LATER THIS EVENING.
***WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE***
Good evening to you from SCW!
Our first call snowmap for late tomorrow night into Thursday is below. As you can see, we have placed the entire state in 6 to 12 inches of snow. This map could be adjusted upward or downward, refined, and perhaps split into other zones tomorrow. Right now, we are going with a wide range of totals, because a lot of this storm will be very heavy falling snow. Therefore, a lot of the accumulations will depend on who gets under the heavy bands. Unfortunately, we won't know that until the storm is in progress. So for now, we decided to go with a broadbrush approach, and if we are able, we will nail down the details tomorrow. Point is, this will be a significant snowfall, and for most of the state, it will be the largest of the season so far.
***WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE***
Good evening to you from SCW!
Our first call snowmap for late tomorrow night into Thursday is below. As you can see, we have placed the entire state in 6 to 12 inches of snow. This map could be adjusted upward or downward, refined, and perhaps split into other zones tomorrow. Right now, we are going with a wide range of totals, because a lot of this storm will be very heavy falling snow. Therefore, a lot of the accumulations will depend on who gets under the heavy bands. Unfortunately, we won't know that until the storm is in progress. So for now, we decided to go with a broadbrush approach, and if we are able, we will nail down the details tomorrow. Point is, this will be a significant snowfall, and for most of the state, it will be the largest of the season so far.
This storm will be punching into record warm temperatures. Now that would ordinarily be a problem, but there is sufficient cold air. That, combined with the dramatic rate at which the storm will strengthen should be more than enough to cool the column in the entire state, and nobody will have to worry about mixing.
Most models are now showing in excess of one inch liquid equivalent precipitation. There is even heavier precipitation just offshore. It is possible that models are too far east with that heavy precipitation. It is also possible that models underestimate how heavy the precipitation will be in the heaviest bands. This would create higher totals. It is also common that when someone is getting very heavy snow, other areas get nothing or much lighter snow for a while. Those areas could get less accumulations. In situations like this, accumulations can very greatly from one spot to another. Here's a look at the RGEM from 18z, showing the banding signature clearly.
Most models are now showing in excess of one inch liquid equivalent precipitation. There is even heavier precipitation just offshore. It is possible that models are too far east with that heavy precipitation. It is also possible that models underestimate how heavy the precipitation will be in the heaviest bands. This would create higher totals. It is also common that when someone is getting very heavy snow, other areas get nothing or much lighter snow for a while. Those areas could get less accumulations. In situations like this, accumulations can very greatly from one spot to another. Here's a look at the RGEM from 18z, showing the banding signature clearly.
It is impossible right now to pick who gets the jackpot. The Northwest Hills may have higher snow to water ratios than anywhere else in the state, so they may get more snow out of less precipitation. Eastern Connecticut may be closer to the low and get heavier precipitation. There's also a small chance that the south coast has mixing issues at the beginning and they last an hour or two longer than forecast. A chance also exists that random heavy bands of snow could literally jackpot anyone in the state, so I don't want to go out on a limb and say who will jackpot. In the grand scheme of things, the difference between 11" and 13" is relatively miniscule. As it stands now, everyone will see a significant and impactful snowfall from this event. Expect widespread school cancellations and difficult travel on Thursday.
Snow could start as early as midnight in the far SW. Heavy snow should be ending in the state by the end of the evening rush hour, but we could see scattered snow showers and/or light snow hanging back through the evening. That's preliminary timing for now - we'll have a more detailed timeline tomorrow along with our final call.
This discussion will be updated around 8 PM covering before and after the storm, and this storm section of the disco will be updated with maps and more info as well... stay tuned!
Thanks for the coordination Tim and Spencer!
-GP!
Snow could start as early as midnight in the far SW. Heavy snow should be ending in the state by the end of the evening rush hour, but we could see scattered snow showers and/or light snow hanging back through the evening. That's preliminary timing for now - we'll have a more detailed timeline tomorrow along with our final call.
This discussion will be updated around 8 PM covering before and after the storm, and this storm section of the disco will be updated with maps and more info as well... stay tuned!
Thanks for the coordination Tim and Spencer!
-GP!
