Disc: There will be a bit more wintry flavor in this discussion, then as we head into the longer range, there may finally be signs showing up of a pattern breakdown in our favor.
Currently: Cold front moving thru area attm. There could be a scattered shower along the front, but most of the rain is done. Temps also have already reached their daily highs.
Tonight: Uncertain how clear we'll be. However, there is cold air advection as well, so I went just a touch under guidance. Lows mostly in the mid to upper 20s.
Tomorrow: Same theme as tonight, more or less. Went a tad under guidance, since we'll still be in cold air advection and there will not be full sun. Highs generally mid to upper 30s. A gusty breeze will add to the chill.
Tomorrow Night/Sun: Low pressure passes well to the east. May have to watch for a snow shower far E CT or at least some enhanced winds there, but most of the action is over SE MA. No strong signal either way, so followed guidance closely. Highs generally near 40, except 40-45 along I 91. Gusty winds could get to 35-40 MPH, maybe even higher extreme E sections, closer to coastal low.
Long Term: Once again, the main concern in the long term is near the end of the period.
For Mon, I generally followed guidance closely, just smoothing it out here and there. Created a fcst with plenty of sun and low 40s as a result.
For Tue, not much change in overall synoptics. High pressure slides a bit further offshore. Went a touch above guidance as a result. I don't think onshore flow is as strong as some members want to depict it, so its effect is less. Highs generally in the mid to upper 40s.
For Wed, nicest day of the week, even though clouds increase. I went close to guidance, but above guidance along I 91. Highs generally near 50, but 50-55 along I 91.
Complicated fcst for Thu. Storm rides just under us w/high pressure trying to build in up N. Antecedent air mass is not cold, but the high to the N is. GFS and GGEM have now introduced a scenario where we could get wintry wx on the front end, then a drizzly reprieve, then as a new low develops, more wintry wx on the back end. I am not going this far in yet for two reasons. First, it's a new development and I generally handle new developments on day 6-7 very carefully. Secondly, it has not wanted to snow this yr. But we'll see, it certainly isn't impossible. NBM guidance that is available does not incorporate this latest data, so I went much colder. Highs generally near 40, maybe some 40-45 along the S coast.
For Fri, I went 7-10 deg cooler than NBM guidance. Again, it does not contain the new data. Even so, this is still 3-7 deg warmer than the new data. Will just call chance of -ra/-sn for now. Way too early to tell if secondary is real and if it's cold enough. Obviously, if this scenario is real, some wind may need to be added to the fcst, as well.
LR: There are signs on the horizon that the pattern is finally beginning to transition to one that will at least bring chances of wintry wx to the state. Time will tell!
No graphics today, since there isn't any real wx inside 6 days.
See you next week!
-GP!
Currently: Cold front moving thru area attm. There could be a scattered shower along the front, but most of the rain is done. Temps also have already reached their daily highs.
Tonight: Uncertain how clear we'll be. However, there is cold air advection as well, so I went just a touch under guidance. Lows mostly in the mid to upper 20s.
Tomorrow: Same theme as tonight, more or less. Went a tad under guidance, since we'll still be in cold air advection and there will not be full sun. Highs generally mid to upper 30s. A gusty breeze will add to the chill.
Tomorrow Night/Sun: Low pressure passes well to the east. May have to watch for a snow shower far E CT or at least some enhanced winds there, but most of the action is over SE MA. No strong signal either way, so followed guidance closely. Highs generally near 40, except 40-45 along I 91. Gusty winds could get to 35-40 MPH, maybe even higher extreme E sections, closer to coastal low.
Long Term: Once again, the main concern in the long term is near the end of the period.
For Mon, I generally followed guidance closely, just smoothing it out here and there. Created a fcst with plenty of sun and low 40s as a result.
For Tue, not much change in overall synoptics. High pressure slides a bit further offshore. Went a touch above guidance as a result. I don't think onshore flow is as strong as some members want to depict it, so its effect is less. Highs generally in the mid to upper 40s.
For Wed, nicest day of the week, even though clouds increase. I went close to guidance, but above guidance along I 91. Highs generally near 50, but 50-55 along I 91.
Complicated fcst for Thu. Storm rides just under us w/high pressure trying to build in up N. Antecedent air mass is not cold, but the high to the N is. GFS and GGEM have now introduced a scenario where we could get wintry wx on the front end, then a drizzly reprieve, then as a new low develops, more wintry wx on the back end. I am not going this far in yet for two reasons. First, it's a new development and I generally handle new developments on day 6-7 very carefully. Secondly, it has not wanted to snow this yr. But we'll see, it certainly isn't impossible. NBM guidance that is available does not incorporate this latest data, so I went much colder. Highs generally near 40, maybe some 40-45 along the S coast.
For Fri, I went 7-10 deg cooler than NBM guidance. Again, it does not contain the new data. Even so, this is still 3-7 deg warmer than the new data. Will just call chance of -ra/-sn for now. Way too early to tell if secondary is real and if it's cold enough. Obviously, if this scenario is real, some wind may need to be added to the fcst, as well.
LR: There are signs on the horizon that the pattern is finally beginning to transition to one that will at least bring chances of wintry wx to the state. Time will tell!
No graphics today, since there isn't any real wx inside 6 days.
See you next week!
-GP!
