Disc: A very warm, spring like pattern in the means will continue for about one more week, before a much more wintry pattern takes hold, just as we head into the first month of meteorological spring!
Currently: High pressure is in its typical summer position, stretching from Bermuda to the mountains of NC. This is responsible for the abnormally warm weather across the state.
Tonight: Temperatures could be a little bit tricky depending on cloud cover. When it clears up, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop. All in all, not expecting too much variance with low temperatures tonight- generally going with 35 to 40 across the state.
Tomorrow: Temperatures will depend on cloud cover once again. Also, with a southerly flow, areas near the south coast are more likely to see cooler temperatures, due to sea breezes. Highs should range from the low 50s along the south coast and approach 60 over the CT valley.
Tomorrow Night and Friday… There will be a chance of showers and maybe even an elevated thunderstorm with a warm frontal passage at basically any time during the overnight hours. Otherwise, skies will then clear on Friday, and perhaps yield the warmest day of the week, with even muggy dew points! The only exception to this will be along the south coast, where the onshore flow will intensify. Temperatures could have a big range on Friday, ranging from the low 50s on the south coast to the mid 60s in the CT valley.
Long Term (The weekend and beyond): On Saturday, a cold front will approach later in the day and at night. Most models weaken any convection associated with this front before it reaches the Hudson River, so that our state will only see a quick round of showers with the frontal passage during the evening hours. Before that time, another very warm day is expected, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures should be more uniform on Saturday, since there will be a more westerly component to the wind flow ahead of the cold front.
On Sunday, skies will clear and temperatures will be closer to normal levels behind the front. It will also become quite windy, with gusts between 30 and 40 MPH possible.
A system then needs to be watched for the later Monday into Tuesday period. Main questions with this system are: How far north does the northern edge of the precipitation shield make it? And how much wintry precipitation is associated with the low, if any? Right now, there is a small potential for a light wintry event along the south coast and perhaps just inland from there. Of course, a lot of questions still remain at this juncture, but there is actually decent model agreement.
Beyond that, it appears there will be one more spring-like system Tuesday night into early Wednesday, possibly with record warmth accompanying it, before the pattern really nosedives into a winter pattern, with some snow threats, and perhaps even a night or two of record or near record cold temperatures as we head deeper into March! We had spring in February, so maybe we’ll have winter in March!
Now, let's take a look at some of the weather slated to affect our area in a graphical format. First, let's take a look at the cold front headed for our area Saturday night.
Currently: High pressure is in its typical summer position, stretching from Bermuda to the mountains of NC. This is responsible for the abnormally warm weather across the state.
Tonight: Temperatures could be a little bit tricky depending on cloud cover. When it clears up, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop. All in all, not expecting too much variance with low temperatures tonight- generally going with 35 to 40 across the state.
Tomorrow: Temperatures will depend on cloud cover once again. Also, with a southerly flow, areas near the south coast are more likely to see cooler temperatures, due to sea breezes. Highs should range from the low 50s along the south coast and approach 60 over the CT valley.
Tomorrow Night and Friday… There will be a chance of showers and maybe even an elevated thunderstorm with a warm frontal passage at basically any time during the overnight hours. Otherwise, skies will then clear on Friday, and perhaps yield the warmest day of the week, with even muggy dew points! The only exception to this will be along the south coast, where the onshore flow will intensify. Temperatures could have a big range on Friday, ranging from the low 50s on the south coast to the mid 60s in the CT valley.
Long Term (The weekend and beyond): On Saturday, a cold front will approach later in the day and at night. Most models weaken any convection associated with this front before it reaches the Hudson River, so that our state will only see a quick round of showers with the frontal passage during the evening hours. Before that time, another very warm day is expected, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures should be more uniform on Saturday, since there will be a more westerly component to the wind flow ahead of the cold front.
On Sunday, skies will clear and temperatures will be closer to normal levels behind the front. It will also become quite windy, with gusts between 30 and 40 MPH possible.
A system then needs to be watched for the later Monday into Tuesday period. Main questions with this system are: How far north does the northern edge of the precipitation shield make it? And how much wintry precipitation is associated with the low, if any? Right now, there is a small potential for a light wintry event along the south coast and perhaps just inland from there. Of course, a lot of questions still remain at this juncture, but there is actually decent model agreement.
Beyond that, it appears there will be one more spring-like system Tuesday night into early Wednesday, possibly with record warmth accompanying it, before the pattern really nosedives into a winter pattern, with some snow threats, and perhaps even a night or two of record or near record cold temperatures as we head deeper into March! We had spring in February, so maybe we’ll have winter in March!
Now, let's take a look at some of the weather slated to affect our area in a graphical format. First, let's take a look at the cold front headed for our area Saturday night.
Next, we'll look at the CPC upper air prog, based on the 12Z GFS Ensembles, valid March 5. Notice this is a pattern like the winter of 2014 or 2015, and not what we've had this winter!
That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
-GP!
