Disc: What you're seeing today is not too atypical for this tine of yr. It can snow, but a lot of times when it does snow into a marginal air mass during the day like today, you get accums in the heavier bands and in normally colder spots, and rainy/slushy mix elsewhere.
Currently: Low press just off VA Beach producing the wet snow across the area today. This low pulls out tonight; then the next couple days will be very nice.
Tonight: Snow pulls out a bit after dark. W/o deep, widespread snow cover and no advection, guidance temps are accepted. I have lows in the upper 20s across the state, except I went a shade warmer along the immediate S coast. Watch for some slick spots on area roadways N of the Merritt Pkwy.
Tomorrow: Sunny and a nice day. Went a few deg below guidance and smoothed out temps. I don't think we downslope or get as efficient sea breezes as models indicate because I think winds are light. Also, not sure about AM clouds limiting temps for much of the state, so I went w/a generic mid 40s.
Friday: Guidance looks good, but again smoothed it out a bit, given light LL wind flow. A couple deg warmer for most, in the upper 40s. Clouds may increase late in the day.
Long Term: Main problem in the long term is a "multiple hazard" storm Sat.
Saturday: Multiple hazard day. A wall of heavy rain arrives in the AM, as temps rise into the upper 40s ( a few deg below guidance), then temps plunge late in the day. The whole state probably turns over to snow. However, there may not be all that much pcpn left, so accums should be less than an inch. There could be some slightly higher amts well N, but too early to pin that down. Did not include t-storms in the fcst, as we are pretty stable E of the Hudson, but a rumble of thunder would not surprise me in extreme W CT. The two biggest hazards appear to be flash freeze, as temps fall more than 30 deg late in the day, and strong winds. Near and behind the Arctic front, winds could gust up to 55 MPH and we roar thru the night.
Sunday: Quick Arctic blast. Generally went pretty close to guidance, since we're not really advecting all that much cold air by afternoon. Highs only mid to upper 30s. Winds diminish a bit, but still could gust 40-50 MPH thru the day!
Monday: Fast recovery. W/onshore flow developing, modified temp guidance a bit. Kept in line w/general numbers, but feel guidance is too cool near I 91 and too warm along the S coast. So I have most places topping out near 50, but some 50-55 showing up near I 91.
Tuesday: Guidance is now hinting at deep layer SE flow setting up. Therefore, I smoothed out the guidance first, then subtracted about 5-10 deg from it. If we really do have SE flow, and the wind barbs support it, highs get to the upper 40s and not much more.
Wednesday: Same deal as Tue. Still looks like a deep-layer SE flow, so subtracted a lot from temp guidance. Highs again upper 40s, but no precip expected.
Just one quick graphic today, and it is the Sat storm. You can see strong low press tracking across the region and an Arctic air mass moving in. This map depicts it well. Take note of how tight the isobars are, strong wind setup!
Currently: Low press just off VA Beach producing the wet snow across the area today. This low pulls out tonight; then the next couple days will be very nice.
Tonight: Snow pulls out a bit after dark. W/o deep, widespread snow cover and no advection, guidance temps are accepted. I have lows in the upper 20s across the state, except I went a shade warmer along the immediate S coast. Watch for some slick spots on area roadways N of the Merritt Pkwy.
Tomorrow: Sunny and a nice day. Went a few deg below guidance and smoothed out temps. I don't think we downslope or get as efficient sea breezes as models indicate because I think winds are light. Also, not sure about AM clouds limiting temps for much of the state, so I went w/a generic mid 40s.
Friday: Guidance looks good, but again smoothed it out a bit, given light LL wind flow. A couple deg warmer for most, in the upper 40s. Clouds may increase late in the day.
Long Term: Main problem in the long term is a "multiple hazard" storm Sat.
Saturday: Multiple hazard day. A wall of heavy rain arrives in the AM, as temps rise into the upper 40s ( a few deg below guidance), then temps plunge late in the day. The whole state probably turns over to snow. However, there may not be all that much pcpn left, so accums should be less than an inch. There could be some slightly higher amts well N, but too early to pin that down. Did not include t-storms in the fcst, as we are pretty stable E of the Hudson, but a rumble of thunder would not surprise me in extreme W CT. The two biggest hazards appear to be flash freeze, as temps fall more than 30 deg late in the day, and strong winds. Near and behind the Arctic front, winds could gust up to 55 MPH and we roar thru the night.
Sunday: Quick Arctic blast. Generally went pretty close to guidance, since we're not really advecting all that much cold air by afternoon. Highs only mid to upper 30s. Winds diminish a bit, but still could gust 40-50 MPH thru the day!
Monday: Fast recovery. W/onshore flow developing, modified temp guidance a bit. Kept in line w/general numbers, but feel guidance is too cool near I 91 and too warm along the S coast. So I have most places topping out near 50, but some 50-55 showing up near I 91.
Tuesday: Guidance is now hinting at deep layer SE flow setting up. Therefore, I smoothed out the guidance first, then subtracted about 5-10 deg from it. If we really do have SE flow, and the wind barbs support it, highs get to the upper 40s and not much more.
Wednesday: Same deal as Tue. Still looks like a deep-layer SE flow, so subtracted a lot from temp guidance. Highs again upper 40s, but no precip expected.
Just one quick graphic today, and it is the Sat storm. You can see strong low press tracking across the region and an Arctic air mass moving in. This map depicts it well. Take note of how tight the isobars are, strong wind setup!
Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
