Good evening and Happy Easter from Southern Connecticut Weather.
Despite our chilly period the last few days, "winter" has mercifully come to an end. The week ahead is looking like the best weather week of the year, which usually means an easy forecast! Let's dive in.
Despite our chilly period the last few days, "winter" has mercifully come to an end. The week ahead is looking like the best weather week of the year, which usually means an easy forecast! Let's dive in.
Above: the 12z European Ensemble showing the projected upper level (500mb) pattern over the next week. It's dominated by big ridging that slides east over time, bringing increasingly warm weather and tranquil conditions for the week ahead.
Monday
Much like today, tomorrow looks beautiful with temperatures a few degrees warmer than the day before. High pressure is in place, meaning very few clouds, if any. Highs look to be in the low to mid 60s, which will feel fantastic.
Throughout the week, the shoreline is the wildcard, as water temperatures in the 40s mean that air temperatures could be a few degrees colder than the forecast if there is any hint of a sea breeze. That said, it's going to be beautiful down there too.
Monday
Much like today, tomorrow looks beautiful with temperatures a few degrees warmer than the day before. High pressure is in place, meaning very few clouds, if any. Highs look to be in the low to mid 60s, which will feel fantastic.
Throughout the week, the shoreline is the wildcard, as water temperatures in the 40s mean that air temperatures could be a few degrees colder than the forecast if there is any hint of a sea breeze. That said, it's going to be beautiful down there too.
Above: the current sea surface temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard. Long Island Sound is cold! This acts as a moderating influence on temperature in the spring along the shore, and also helps bring stability that limits (often) severe weather potential in southern CT during peak severe season in CT in May and June.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Still beautiful, but we may see more breezy conditions. With the dry conditions, there will be some fire hazard, which just means be extra careful if you are out grilling or dealing with any particular sparks. Inland, Tuesday and Wednesday look ten degrees warmer than Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Along the shore it'll be a little cooler, but highs will still be approaching 70, and will easily top 70 if there's a period without a sea breeze in the afternoon. During the week SE CT is most at risk of the breeze.
Thursday-Friday
The end of the work week brings the taste of summer. The big ridge in the first image will be moving over the region during that period, and that mean heat. As a reminder, the average high temperature on the 15th is around 60 degrees, and we will be seeing temperatures at the end of the work week that are in the low to mid 80s inland. It doesn't look like an all out hazy, hot, and humid period, but you'll notice the warmth. SE CT will be the favored spot if you like cooler temperatures!
Below is a Euro operational model depiction of temperatures Thursday-Sunday. I do think it'll be a little warmer than stated on Thursday and Friday. Notice how the southern portion of the state see cooler temperatures due to a sea breeze.
Still beautiful, but we may see more breezy conditions. With the dry conditions, there will be some fire hazard, which just means be extra careful if you are out grilling or dealing with any particular sparks. Inland, Tuesday and Wednesday look ten degrees warmer than Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Along the shore it'll be a little cooler, but highs will still be approaching 70, and will easily top 70 if there's a period without a sea breeze in the afternoon. During the week SE CT is most at risk of the breeze.
Thursday-Friday
The end of the work week brings the taste of summer. The big ridge in the first image will be moving over the region during that period, and that mean heat. As a reminder, the average high temperature on the 15th is around 60 degrees, and we will be seeing temperatures at the end of the work week that are in the low to mid 80s inland. It doesn't look like an all out hazy, hot, and humid period, but you'll notice the warmth. SE CT will be the favored spot if you like cooler temperatures!
Below is a Euro operational model depiction of temperatures Thursday-Sunday. I do think it'll be a little warmer than stated on Thursday and Friday. Notice how the southern portion of the state see cooler temperatures due to a sea breeze.
Saturday-Sunday
Currently, next weekend also looks great, but as our sprawling high continues shifting east, we will need to watch for some showers as a cold front approaches late weekend. For now, however, it looks like a fantastic spring weekend is on tap with temperatures coming back down to the 70s. With this big warm up, we are likely to see significant gains in leaf out for some species of trees in the next week.
Hello spring!
The Dailies
Monday: Sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 60s inland. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s at the shore.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s inland. Highs in the 60s at the shore.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s inland. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s at the shore. Could be a few degrees cooler depending on sea breeze.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the shore. Could be a few degrees cooler depending on sea breeze.
Friday: Mostly sunny and very warm. Highs in mid to upper 80s inland. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s at the shore. Could be a few degrees cooler depending on sea breeze.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of showers late 20%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Currently, next weekend also looks great, but as our sprawling high continues shifting east, we will need to watch for some showers as a cold front approaches late weekend. For now, however, it looks like a fantastic spring weekend is on tap with temperatures coming back down to the 70s. With this big warm up, we are likely to see significant gains in leaf out for some species of trees in the next week.
Hello spring!
The Dailies
Monday: Sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 60s inland. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s at the shore.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s inland. Highs in the 60s at the shore.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s inland. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s at the shore. Could be a few degrees cooler depending on sea breeze.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the shore. Could be a few degrees cooler depending on sea breeze.
Friday: Mostly sunny and very warm. Highs in mid to upper 80s inland. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s at the shore. Could be a few degrees cooler depending on sea breeze.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of showers late 20%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
