Southern Connecticut Weather
  • Home
  • Forecaster Discussion
  • SCW Social Media Hub
  • SCW Facebook
  • About Us/Contact Us

...SPRINGTIME SLOWLY SETTLING IN ACROSS THE STATE...

3/26/2020

Comments

 
Disc: As the header states, springtime will slowly. but surely settle in across the state over the next few weeks.  As is typical this time of year, a brief bout or two of winter is possible, especially the further north you head.  But ultimately, spring will settle in.

Currently: High pressure near Richmond, VA, is dominating our weather today.  Yesterday's low pressure system that passed south of the area is well out to sea.

Tonight: Temperatures will probably settle close to, but perhaps a bit lower than guidance.  This could be either because of early radiational cooling before clouds move in, or late evaporational cooling, as light rain moves in.  There could be light rain toward morning in far SW CT.  It should be noted that the NAM has nothing, while the GFS has measurable making it to the south coast.  Because yesterday's event, also a southern scraper, was closer to what the GFS printed out than the NAM, I'll go with about an 80% GFS-based solution, so I'll go with chancey pops for Srn Fairfield County only toward dawn.  For temperatures, I'll go with lows right around 40 degrees.

Tomorrow: If there is any measurable rain, it will be along the immediate S coast, think S of the Merritt Pkwy.  It all ends by noon.  Warmer air then moves in.  Because of the potential for clouds to linger, I'll go just a smidge below guidance.  So we'll go with highs in the upper 50s.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: The next wave of low pressure will approach the area.  This one will have a significant amount more rain than its predecessor.  Although light rain is possible at any time, steadier, heavier rain should wait until the 2nd half of Sat, and continue into the night.  I like colder temps for Saturday than guidance is advertising, only because we usually stay colder than normal in this situation, both due to evaporational cooling and some in-situ CAD that usually develops.  For these reasons, I'll take the coldest (NAM) guidance and then subtract 3 degrees from that.  Highs should be near 50, but most places should probably end up on the lower end of that range.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): There is lots of uncertainty in this period, unfortunately.  This can be seen by how model solutions change drastically from one run to the next.

First, for Sunday, forecast concerns revolve around how far N the warm front makes it.  I hate to take the "cop-out" solution because realistically, it usually doesn't work out like that, but it is "the course of least regret" with regards to temps, in that the bust potential on either side is lower.  Therefore, we'll run the warm front up to somewhere between the Merritt and I 84 (maybe thinking that the first elevated area can stop the Nwd progress of the front).  The NAM holds the front much further S, not even clearing NYC, but it is very unreliable at this range.  The GFS gets it up to about the Mass Pike, but tends to be overagressive at this range.  So maybe my "preliminary location" won't be that bad after all.  Some of these fronts have a very sharp gradient, so if I am off by only 30 miles (which is very little in medium-range meteorology), some folks will bust.  I will try the best I can here and compromise the GFS and NAM, but go a bit closer to the GFS, given the NAM's unreliability at this range.  This yields highs around 50 degrees, but closer to 55 in the I 91 corridor.

Now the second potential problem is precipitation chances.  Most rain should taper off by dawn.  After that, there's a slight chance of a pop-up shower at any time.  With the cold frontal passage, there could also be a line of showers and thunderstorms late in the day and early in the evening.

For Monday thru Wednesday: An upper level low will affect the region.  This upper level low will send little spokes of energy thru the area, that could produce showers at any time, although the vast majority of these three days should be dry.  As far as temperatures, I'll go 1-3 degrees below guidance all three days, since upper levels are cold, and any time temperatures rise this should lead to the formation of showers.  There may even be a precipitation type question with this.  Anything that falls on Monday is rain.  On Tuesday, there could be a mix with snow or sleet to I 84, and perhaps all the way to the coast on Wednesday.
'
Monday should also see gusty winds to 30-35 MPH.  As for temperatures, look for highs in the mid to upper 50s Monday. upper 40s Tuesday, and only 40 to 45 Wednesday.  

One more note about this period, there is a coastal low modeled to stay well south of the area on Wednesday.  Most modeling is in agreement that this stays to our south.  However, any shift of the upper level low out of the region faster than modeled could lead to this low coming further north than currently modeled, which would result in a rainier and windier solution than currently advertised.  This is NOT currently forecast, but something to watch.

Thursday clears out with nicer weather moving in regardless.   Guidance may be a degree or two too cold, given full sun.  Highs should be 50-55, but could be warmer than that along I 91.

Now, let's take a look at some of the systems slated to affect our area in graphical form.  I will show Saturday's system and Wednesday's potential (squashed) system.  First, for Saturday: look at the swath of rain over NJ and PA, basically along I 80, headed toward the area.  This image is valid late Saturday afternoon.

​
Picture
Now, taking a look at the Wednesday potential coastal.  Taking this model run literally, the storm is well south of the area.  However, it does not take much to bring this significantly north.  Keep an eye on this just in case!

​
Picture
Anyway, that's all for now, take care, stay healthy, and see everyone next week!

​-GP!
Comments

    Archives

    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014

    Categories

    All
    Tropical Weather
    Winter Forecast

    Authors

    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

Picture
Copyright Southern Connecticut Weather 2018, all rights reserved. 
For website related inquiries, email us at support@southernconnecticutweather.com

Privacy Policy/Terms of Service