Disc: There could be a few winter wx chances across the area over the next week, but the overall lack of snowfall continues at least a few more days (for most).
Currently: High pressure over Srn Canada has ushered in a cooler air mass. A few snow showers are possible this evening across the NW Hills, but no accums are expected.
Tonight: One night of good CAA early, then good radiational conditions late. The combo should allow temps to fall a bit below guidance. So I have lows in the upper 20s for most.
Tomorrow: I went a bit above guidance as plenty of sun and good WAA allow for temps to warm pretty quickly. Prob upper 40s for most of the state, but I could see a spot 50 in the CT Valley (I 91).
Tomorrow Night/Sun: Clouds increase, probably a bit more widespread than what NBM indicates. For that reason, I went just a touch under guidance. Still a warm day with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
A cold front, lacking in moisture, moves thru the state Sun night. I have POPS layered from 40% in the NW Hills to 20% in SE CT. As for ptyp, I have all rain showers for most, as the boundary layer is too warm, but they could end as ice pellets in the NW Hills. It doesn't really matter anyway, as pcpn amounts are of little consequence, and fcst temps are above freezing.
Long Term (Next week): Two systems threaten the area, both or one could hit, and both or one could be South of the area.
For Mon, with modest CAA, I went just a touch under guidance for most of the state w/temps. The exception is in the CT Valley, where I think mid 40s looks good, due to the valley and a bit of downsloping. Gusty breeze develops in the afternoon, as CAA strengthens.
For Tue, guidance looks reasonably good on temps. NO major changes foreseen, just some smoothing. I have highs in the mid to upper 30s. Core of the cold air moves overhead. Clouds increase late in the day, esp along the S coast. Winds diminish a bit.
For Wed, the first wave moves to our south. The big question is if it comes close enough to give us any pcpn. I have chance POPs for snow up to about I 84 and just cloudy north of there. Ptyp would appear to be all snow. Kind of uniform high temps- mid 30s- in the grids, which is right in line w/guidance. If the Srn half of the state is snowing and the Nrn half is not, that would even out the usual temp differences.
For Thu, the next wave moves to our south. This one could be a bit north of the first one, so I have chance POPs for the entire state. For this reason, and with a strong cold air dome in place, I went way below guidance on temps, w/highs in the upper 20s. Obviously no ptyp issues foreseen at this point, if any pcpn falls, it should be snow. Whether it snows or not, there should also be a brisk wind, adding to the chill.
For Fri, whatever happens Wed and Thu, we clear out Fri. Still cold, and still modest CAA, so generally went slightly under guidance, since there is also the possibility of some snowcover. In the CT Valley, followed guidance, so highs generally near 30, except 30-35 in the CT Valley. Winds also diminish, as high pressure moves overhead.
In the longer range, it appears the cold air retreats. The big question is if the SE Ridge that forms lasts a few days or a few weeks. That will largely hold the key as to whether or not winter will continue. The way models have been this winter, the groundhog may turn out more accurate, but we'll see!
No graphics today, since we don't have any definite systems yet! See you next week!
-GP!
Currently: High pressure over Srn Canada has ushered in a cooler air mass. A few snow showers are possible this evening across the NW Hills, but no accums are expected.
Tonight: One night of good CAA early, then good radiational conditions late. The combo should allow temps to fall a bit below guidance. So I have lows in the upper 20s for most.
Tomorrow: I went a bit above guidance as plenty of sun and good WAA allow for temps to warm pretty quickly. Prob upper 40s for most of the state, but I could see a spot 50 in the CT Valley (I 91).
Tomorrow Night/Sun: Clouds increase, probably a bit more widespread than what NBM indicates. For that reason, I went just a touch under guidance. Still a warm day with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
A cold front, lacking in moisture, moves thru the state Sun night. I have POPS layered from 40% in the NW Hills to 20% in SE CT. As for ptyp, I have all rain showers for most, as the boundary layer is too warm, but they could end as ice pellets in the NW Hills. It doesn't really matter anyway, as pcpn amounts are of little consequence, and fcst temps are above freezing.
Long Term (Next week): Two systems threaten the area, both or one could hit, and both or one could be South of the area.
For Mon, with modest CAA, I went just a touch under guidance for most of the state w/temps. The exception is in the CT Valley, where I think mid 40s looks good, due to the valley and a bit of downsloping. Gusty breeze develops in the afternoon, as CAA strengthens.
For Tue, guidance looks reasonably good on temps. NO major changes foreseen, just some smoothing. I have highs in the mid to upper 30s. Core of the cold air moves overhead. Clouds increase late in the day, esp along the S coast. Winds diminish a bit.
For Wed, the first wave moves to our south. The big question is if it comes close enough to give us any pcpn. I have chance POPs for snow up to about I 84 and just cloudy north of there. Ptyp would appear to be all snow. Kind of uniform high temps- mid 30s- in the grids, which is right in line w/guidance. If the Srn half of the state is snowing and the Nrn half is not, that would even out the usual temp differences.
For Thu, the next wave moves to our south. This one could be a bit north of the first one, so I have chance POPs for the entire state. For this reason, and with a strong cold air dome in place, I went way below guidance on temps, w/highs in the upper 20s. Obviously no ptyp issues foreseen at this point, if any pcpn falls, it should be snow. Whether it snows or not, there should also be a brisk wind, adding to the chill.
For Fri, whatever happens Wed and Thu, we clear out Fri. Still cold, and still modest CAA, so generally went slightly under guidance, since there is also the possibility of some snowcover. In the CT Valley, followed guidance, so highs generally near 30, except 30-35 in the CT Valley. Winds also diminish, as high pressure moves overhead.
In the longer range, it appears the cold air retreats. The big question is if the SE Ridge that forms lasts a few days or a few weeks. That will largely hold the key as to whether or not winter will continue. The way models have been this winter, the groundhog may turn out more accurate, but we'll see!
No graphics today, since we don't have any definite systems yet! See you next week!
-GP!
