An increasingly hot and stormy pattern will prevail across the area for the next week or so. Except for the first two or three days of the forecast period, there really isn't much of a point to try and time each individual wave of storms that will affect the area.
Tonight: Clouds and humidity gradually increase. It looks like any rain and thunderstorms will stay to the Southwest of the state, so I won't mention any precipitation tonight. As for low temperatures, with a return flow of warmer and more humid air moving in, temperatures won't fall much from where they are right now. Expect low temperatures to be in the 70 to 75 degree range.
Tomorrow: There should be two rounds of showers and thunderstorms- one around midday and another, potentially stronger line, later at night. Since the one round of storms will likely come through around midday, that will likely put a cap on temperatures. This will also make temperatures tricky, because areas that may escape a storm, or get through with just a quick shower, are likely to be warmer than areas that get more precipitation. Also, if an area gets a pop-up storm earlier, their temperatures will likely be cooler. This will have nothing to do with climatological warm or cool areas. In general, highs within a few degrees of 80 appears reasonable, but again, there could be a high degree of variability with those temperatures.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: As I already mentioned, one round of thunderstorms will be likely around or just before midnight. This round of thunderstorms could contain torrential downpours, as the atmosphere becomes more moist, and precipitable waters increase. On Thursday, convection appears to be diurnally (heat of the day) driven. As the sun warms the atmosphere, with high levels of humidity, the atmosphere will become conditionally unstable and thunderstorms will develop. Once again, in any area that gets thunderstorms earlier, high temperatures will be cooler. High temperatures should be around 90 degrees statewide, with some cooler readings possible in the Northwest hills. There should be little or no relief from sea breezes at the beaches.
Longer Term: Friday appears to be a good day for gully-washing type thunderstorms. Precipitable water levels, or available atmospheric moisture, is very high. This, coupled with some troughiness over the area should allow for widespread thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall. Friday's temperatures will be very similar to those of Thursday- around 90, but cooler in the Northwest hills.
For Saturday, daytime thunderstorms will be diurnal-driven, or flare up in a conditionally unstable atmosphere during the heat of the day. However, as a front gets closer to the area, a stronger (and more widespread) round of thunderstorms could flare up later at night. Saturday should be very hot, with temperatures statewide around 90.
On Sunday, a cold front gets closer, but does not clear, the state. This should create a more widespread round of thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. Due to more clouds and thunderstorms, Sunday's temperatures should be a bit cooler- in the mid 80s.
On Monday, the cold front ever so slowly clears the state. This should create an opportunity for multiple rounds of thunderstorms during the day, any time from about midday on. High temperatures on Monday should be around or just above 80- once again a bit cooler, due to clouds and thunderstorms.
The forecast beyond that is predicated on the idea that the front clears the state on Monday, and that would yield very pleasant weather with cooler temperatures for much of the rest of next week. However, there are some indications in the latest modeling that the front could wash out and die over the state, thus yielding a continuation of heat and humidity, but without as many chances for thunderstorms, for several days longer, so keep that in mind.
Some of the long range models are showing a turn to a much more pleasant weather pattern into the last week of August. But given the fact that many long range models change patterns too fast, this could be delayed until the first week of September.
Now, here is a look at one graphical item that speaks for itself as to how much rain is coming this week, potentially, of course. You can see at least 2 inches of rain for most of the state. However, keep two things in mind. First, this map is likely "smoothed out"- meaning it's an average of precipitation. This means that some areas could get much more than what's being shown here, especially in such a moist and hot air mass, with a tropical connection all the way to the Pacific Ocean!
That's all for now, enjoy the rest of your week!
-GP!
Tonight: Clouds and humidity gradually increase. It looks like any rain and thunderstorms will stay to the Southwest of the state, so I won't mention any precipitation tonight. As for low temperatures, with a return flow of warmer and more humid air moving in, temperatures won't fall much from where they are right now. Expect low temperatures to be in the 70 to 75 degree range.
Tomorrow: There should be two rounds of showers and thunderstorms- one around midday and another, potentially stronger line, later at night. Since the one round of storms will likely come through around midday, that will likely put a cap on temperatures. This will also make temperatures tricky, because areas that may escape a storm, or get through with just a quick shower, are likely to be warmer than areas that get more precipitation. Also, if an area gets a pop-up storm earlier, their temperatures will likely be cooler. This will have nothing to do with climatological warm or cool areas. In general, highs within a few degrees of 80 appears reasonable, but again, there could be a high degree of variability with those temperatures.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: As I already mentioned, one round of thunderstorms will be likely around or just before midnight. This round of thunderstorms could contain torrential downpours, as the atmosphere becomes more moist, and precipitable waters increase. On Thursday, convection appears to be diurnally (heat of the day) driven. As the sun warms the atmosphere, with high levels of humidity, the atmosphere will become conditionally unstable and thunderstorms will develop. Once again, in any area that gets thunderstorms earlier, high temperatures will be cooler. High temperatures should be around 90 degrees statewide, with some cooler readings possible in the Northwest hills. There should be little or no relief from sea breezes at the beaches.
Longer Term: Friday appears to be a good day for gully-washing type thunderstorms. Precipitable water levels, or available atmospheric moisture, is very high. This, coupled with some troughiness over the area should allow for widespread thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall. Friday's temperatures will be very similar to those of Thursday- around 90, but cooler in the Northwest hills.
For Saturday, daytime thunderstorms will be diurnal-driven, or flare up in a conditionally unstable atmosphere during the heat of the day. However, as a front gets closer to the area, a stronger (and more widespread) round of thunderstorms could flare up later at night. Saturday should be very hot, with temperatures statewide around 90.
On Sunday, a cold front gets closer, but does not clear, the state. This should create a more widespread round of thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. Due to more clouds and thunderstorms, Sunday's temperatures should be a bit cooler- in the mid 80s.
On Monday, the cold front ever so slowly clears the state. This should create an opportunity for multiple rounds of thunderstorms during the day, any time from about midday on. High temperatures on Monday should be around or just above 80- once again a bit cooler, due to clouds and thunderstorms.
The forecast beyond that is predicated on the idea that the front clears the state on Monday, and that would yield very pleasant weather with cooler temperatures for much of the rest of next week. However, there are some indications in the latest modeling that the front could wash out and die over the state, thus yielding a continuation of heat and humidity, but without as many chances for thunderstorms, for several days longer, so keep that in mind.
Some of the long range models are showing a turn to a much more pleasant weather pattern into the last week of August. But given the fact that many long range models change patterns too fast, this could be delayed until the first week of September.
Now, here is a look at one graphical item that speaks for itself as to how much rain is coming this week, potentially, of course. You can see at least 2 inches of rain for most of the state. However, keep two things in mind. First, this map is likely "smoothed out"- meaning it's an average of precipitation. This means that some areas could get much more than what's being shown here, especially in such a moist and hot air mass, with a tropical connection all the way to the Pacific Ocean!
That's all for now, enjoy the rest of your week!
-GP!
