Disc: As many are left without power and still trying to clean up from the last storm, we're already tracking the next one. A storm that was impossible to predict with 100% verification (unless someone called for 4 to 25" in a county, which would be laughed at across the met community), another storm is being tracked.
Currently: A weak clipper low is over Lake Huron, while the storm responsible for dropping copious amounts of snow over much of the state is currently over the Gulf of Maine. These two lows could still have a minor effect on our weather within the next 24 hours.
For tonight and tomorrow, there could be passing snow showers at any time, especially up north and in hillier locations, but anyone could see a brief snow shower. Up to an inch accumulation could fall in hiller areas north of the Merritt Parkway. It will be cold. Lows will be in the 20s statewide. High temperatures tomorrow should only range 35 to 40.
Saturday should be a generally fair day with milder temperatures. Highs should be about five degrees warmer than those of Sunday- 40 to 45.
For Sunday and Monday (mostly Monday) another storm system is approaching from the SW. Models are in disagreement as to whether or not this comes far enough north, but in general, (NOT always, but USUALLY), these coastal lows tend to end up further north than modeled. The thermal profile in general is at or cooler than that of the last storm, so precipitation would favor snow across the state (except maybe for a time along the immediate SE Coast). This storm is loaded with moisture and should be a strong one. Although the exact track and extent of impacts on the state are unknown at this time, we do know that where it does hit should have significant impacts. Stay tuned to SWCTWX for updates on this system, as many areas are still not recovered from the previous storms. For what it's worth the new 18Z GFS is much further north than previous runs, which would have much larger impacts on the state. As of this writing, the south coast is favored to have the highest impacts with a storm passing to the south.
I will just briefly glance at the long term for now.. Arctic air with well below normal temperatures flows in behind the storm. In fact, low temperatures on Wednesday morning should make it into the teens anywhere north of the Merritt Parkway! Yet another system is showing up in the modeling in the later Wednesday into Thursday time frame. This could just be a clipper system with light snows, but a few model solutions redevelop this one off the coast, which would result in more significant precipitation. If there is any system in this time frame, thermal profiles look like what you would find in late January, so that would easily be all snow everywhere.
The longer range looks to see more swings in the overall temperatures, with some days getting above normal here and there (after all, it is March)! However, I am not ready to say that winter is over after St Patrick's day, as there are still some models where some storm threats show up from time to time and thermal profiles appear to support wintry precipitation. As long as there is blocking in the higher latitudes, winter storm threats will persist!
I don't know if I'll be able to post any graphics tonight because I do not have a good Internet connection here, but we'll try to get some posted.
Take care and enjoy your weekend!
-GP!
Currently: A weak clipper low is over Lake Huron, while the storm responsible for dropping copious amounts of snow over much of the state is currently over the Gulf of Maine. These two lows could still have a minor effect on our weather within the next 24 hours.
For tonight and tomorrow, there could be passing snow showers at any time, especially up north and in hillier locations, but anyone could see a brief snow shower. Up to an inch accumulation could fall in hiller areas north of the Merritt Parkway. It will be cold. Lows will be in the 20s statewide. High temperatures tomorrow should only range 35 to 40.
Saturday should be a generally fair day with milder temperatures. Highs should be about five degrees warmer than those of Sunday- 40 to 45.
For Sunday and Monday (mostly Monday) another storm system is approaching from the SW. Models are in disagreement as to whether or not this comes far enough north, but in general, (NOT always, but USUALLY), these coastal lows tend to end up further north than modeled. The thermal profile in general is at or cooler than that of the last storm, so precipitation would favor snow across the state (except maybe for a time along the immediate SE Coast). This storm is loaded with moisture and should be a strong one. Although the exact track and extent of impacts on the state are unknown at this time, we do know that where it does hit should have significant impacts. Stay tuned to SWCTWX for updates on this system, as many areas are still not recovered from the previous storms. For what it's worth the new 18Z GFS is much further north than previous runs, which would have much larger impacts on the state. As of this writing, the south coast is favored to have the highest impacts with a storm passing to the south.
I will just briefly glance at the long term for now.. Arctic air with well below normal temperatures flows in behind the storm. In fact, low temperatures on Wednesday morning should make it into the teens anywhere north of the Merritt Parkway! Yet another system is showing up in the modeling in the later Wednesday into Thursday time frame. This could just be a clipper system with light snows, but a few model solutions redevelop this one off the coast, which would result in more significant precipitation. If there is any system in this time frame, thermal profiles look like what you would find in late January, so that would easily be all snow everywhere.
The longer range looks to see more swings in the overall temperatures, with some days getting above normal here and there (after all, it is March)! However, I am not ready to say that winter is over after St Patrick's day, as there are still some models where some storm threats show up from time to time and thermal profiles appear to support wintry precipitation. As long as there is blocking in the higher latitudes, winter storm threats will persist!
I don't know if I'll be able to post any graphics tonight because I do not have a good Internet connection here, but we'll try to get some posted.
Take care and enjoy your weekend!
-GP!
