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...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF CONNECTICUT FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE FRIDAY, MORE ON THAT LATER...
Disc: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, failing each time, and expecting different results. I think it's time that we go back to the chalkboard in our meteorological classrooms and write on the board: "I WILL NOT FORECAST A WARM FRONT TO GO THROUGH DURING THE COLD SEASON,WITHOUT SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE" 100 times. Most models drove a primary low into the thumb of Michigan today, which was correct, and then blasted a warm front up to about the Massachusetts Turnpike. In reality, a secondary low formed right over the NYC Metro area and deepened rapidly. This kept the warm front south of even NYC, and occluded the frontal system. No models saw that until the 12Z high resolution guidance, and by that point, all of the meteorological damage had already been done.
So for tonight, lingering showers are possible until about midnight. After that time, the air mass will begin to dry out behind a weak cold front. This will set us up for a beautiful day tomorrow. Low temperatures tonight will not fall very much, since the skies will take a time to clear out and the air mass behind the weak cold front isn't all that cold. Lows should be generally 40 to 45, with maybe a few upper 30s in the NW Hills.
Tomorrow.. The calm before the next storm, but it might not be as warm as some of the models suggest. The 12Z NAM has come in showing a pretty well-entrenched SE flow, which would have a marine layer penetrate pretty far inland and keep temperatures lower. In addition, clouds will be increasing ahead of the next system, and the past two events have seen clouds increase much quicker than progged, and this one shouldn't be any different. Therefore, I'll go lower than guidance on highs tomorrow and keep high temperatures generally in the upper 50s.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: Clouds increase ahead of the next system Wednesday night then rain arrives Thursday. Rain should arrive across most of the state before dawn on Thursday. The heaviest of the rain should fall during Thursday afternoon into early evening, with rain tapering down Thursday night. I think Thursday is a chilly day, with temperatures staying around 50 all day. There is no reason to forecast a warm front barreling through with Thursday's low pressure system forecasted to be near Harrisburg, PA. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are likely with this system, with some areas receiving higher amounts. There is a chance for imbedded thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, which will enhance rainfall totals in areas that get them. Still to be resolved, depending on the exact track of the low pressure system, is how strong winds will get. For now, I'll go on the lower side of wind guidance, and call for breezy conditions, with a few strong gusts possible in imbedded convection. It is possible, however, that my forecast may not be windy enough.
Long Term: The low from Thursday will be slow to depart for Friday and possibly even into Saturday. An upper level low and cold pool aloft will be left behind. Spokes of energy will spread showers across the state on and off throughout the day on Friday. Across the NW Hills, these showers could be mixed with sleet or snow, if they come down hard enough. Saturday this system will begin to collapse, but a few sprinkles or flurries are still possible across the northern half of the state. I will go significantly cooler than guidance, by 5 degrees or so statewide, both of these two days, as I think numerical guidance is doing a poor job handling the cold pool aloft, and will cool with time. So for highs, we're looking at upper 40s for Friday, and just over 50 for Sunday.
A warm front could bring a quick shot of rain, possibly heavy in spots, Sunday night into Monday morning, otherwise.. The rest of the long term will feature fair weather, for the most part. High pressure will move overhead on Sunday. With plenty of sun, highs will be in the upper 50s. As high pressure moves offshore, conditions will warm up through the rest of the long term. For this part of the forecast, I've gone a few degrees warmer than guidance, since numerical guidance tends to be biased toward climatology at that range. Therefore, I'll go with highs in the mid to upper 60s Monday, 70 to 75 on Tuesday and Wednesday. By later Wednesday, a cold front will approach and could touch off a few showers, but this front looks like it doesn't have a whole lot of moisture to work with at this point.
Behind Wednesday's cold front, it looks like the pattern of having a trough in the east will return, which would mean that temperatures would be at or below seasonal normals, and it looks like there may be a return back to stormy weather and storms loaded with rain as we head towards Easter weekend.
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems expected to affect our area, in graphical format. First, here is a look at the forecasted storm to affect our area on Thursday, with a map valid Thursday afternoon.
...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF CONNECTICUT FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE FRIDAY, MORE ON THAT LATER...
Disc: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, failing each time, and expecting different results. I think it's time that we go back to the chalkboard in our meteorological classrooms and write on the board: "I WILL NOT FORECAST A WARM FRONT TO GO THROUGH DURING THE COLD SEASON,WITHOUT SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE" 100 times. Most models drove a primary low into the thumb of Michigan today, which was correct, and then blasted a warm front up to about the Massachusetts Turnpike. In reality, a secondary low formed right over the NYC Metro area and deepened rapidly. This kept the warm front south of even NYC, and occluded the frontal system. No models saw that until the 12Z high resolution guidance, and by that point, all of the meteorological damage had already been done.
So for tonight, lingering showers are possible until about midnight. After that time, the air mass will begin to dry out behind a weak cold front. This will set us up for a beautiful day tomorrow. Low temperatures tonight will not fall very much, since the skies will take a time to clear out and the air mass behind the weak cold front isn't all that cold. Lows should be generally 40 to 45, with maybe a few upper 30s in the NW Hills.
Tomorrow.. The calm before the next storm, but it might not be as warm as some of the models suggest. The 12Z NAM has come in showing a pretty well-entrenched SE flow, which would have a marine layer penetrate pretty far inland and keep temperatures lower. In addition, clouds will be increasing ahead of the next system, and the past two events have seen clouds increase much quicker than progged, and this one shouldn't be any different. Therefore, I'll go lower than guidance on highs tomorrow and keep high temperatures generally in the upper 50s.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: Clouds increase ahead of the next system Wednesday night then rain arrives Thursday. Rain should arrive across most of the state before dawn on Thursday. The heaviest of the rain should fall during Thursday afternoon into early evening, with rain tapering down Thursday night. I think Thursday is a chilly day, with temperatures staying around 50 all day. There is no reason to forecast a warm front barreling through with Thursday's low pressure system forecasted to be near Harrisburg, PA. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are likely with this system, with some areas receiving higher amounts. There is a chance for imbedded thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, which will enhance rainfall totals in areas that get them. Still to be resolved, depending on the exact track of the low pressure system, is how strong winds will get. For now, I'll go on the lower side of wind guidance, and call for breezy conditions, with a few strong gusts possible in imbedded convection. It is possible, however, that my forecast may not be windy enough.
Long Term: The low from Thursday will be slow to depart for Friday and possibly even into Saturday. An upper level low and cold pool aloft will be left behind. Spokes of energy will spread showers across the state on and off throughout the day on Friday. Across the NW Hills, these showers could be mixed with sleet or snow, if they come down hard enough. Saturday this system will begin to collapse, but a few sprinkles or flurries are still possible across the northern half of the state. I will go significantly cooler than guidance, by 5 degrees or so statewide, both of these two days, as I think numerical guidance is doing a poor job handling the cold pool aloft, and will cool with time. So for highs, we're looking at upper 40s for Friday, and just over 50 for Sunday.
A warm front could bring a quick shot of rain, possibly heavy in spots, Sunday night into Monday morning, otherwise.. The rest of the long term will feature fair weather, for the most part. High pressure will move overhead on Sunday. With plenty of sun, highs will be in the upper 50s. As high pressure moves offshore, conditions will warm up through the rest of the long term. For this part of the forecast, I've gone a few degrees warmer than guidance, since numerical guidance tends to be biased toward climatology at that range. Therefore, I'll go with highs in the mid to upper 60s Monday, 70 to 75 on Tuesday and Wednesday. By later Wednesday, a cold front will approach and could touch off a few showers, but this front looks like it doesn't have a whole lot of moisture to work with at this point.
Behind Wednesday's cold front, it looks like the pattern of having a trough in the east will return, which would mean that temperatures would be at or below seasonal normals, and it looks like there may be a return back to stormy weather and storms loaded with rain as we head towards Easter weekend.
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems expected to affect our area, in graphical format. First, here is a look at the forecasted storm to affect our area on Thursday, with a map valid Thursday afternoon.
This map, valid noon on Thursday shows heavy rain getting ready to move into the state. The tightly packed isobars are a good indicator of a potentially windy system, as well.
Finally, this map shows total precipitation, from the GFS model. This map does not really account for convection, which would increase overall precipitation amounts. You can see that most of the state is covered in one inch or more of rainfall. Keep in mind, that soil is already very wet, so that is why this is a good flood threat.
Anyway, that's all for now! Enjoy the rest of your week, and stay dry!
-GP!
Anyway, that's all for now! Enjoy the rest of your week, and stay dry!
-GP!
