Currently: Not much going on. High pressure basically overhead, stretching from Nova Scotia to the Delmarva. A warm front stretched from Atlanta to off the Delmarva out to Kansas City. That warm front will be the focal point for widely isolated t-storms the next couple of days.
Tonight: At first glance, looks like a good radiative night, but you don't usually radiate very well on Southerly winds. So we'll go very close to guidance temps. Look for lows 55-60, except low 50s in the NW hills and sheltered valleys.
Tomorrow: We begin the transition to warmer and more humid wx, but tomorrow is generally still not too bad. I have gone 3-5 deg below guidance on temps, as I don't think the warm front gets as far N as guidance does. They usually come thru slower than progged. Highs should be 75-80, with a few low 80s possible along the I 91 corridor. There is a very slight chance of a t-storm as the warm front approaches, but probabilities are too low to even include in the fcst.
Tomorrow night/Sat: Temps and humidity continue to increase. There will continue to be a slight chance of a t-storm. This time, I will include in the fcst. Warm fronts do tend to produce. But we have timing against us. Fropa is slated for the morn. However, morning warm fronts sometimes surprise, so for that reason I have included slight chances of t-storms. As for temps, I've gone 5-7 deg cooler than guidance, because I think we'll struggle to clear out. This may be the last day I do this for quite a while.
Long Term: The key points in the long term are increasing heat and humidity, and gradually, keyword gradually, increasing t-storm chances.
I still went a few deg below guidance on Sunday, because ENS guidance is cooler. Plus we have time to adjust upward, always rather do that than flip-flop. But it definitely begins to get genuinely hot! It is not impossible for t-storms to pop up along any local boundaries, but overall coverage and probability is too low to include in the fcst. High temperatures generally in the mid 80s, except upper 80s along I 91.
For Mon, the chance of t-storms could be a touch higher. Timing is way up in the air. So I'll just broadbrush slight chances thru the entire area. Although coverage will be low, any storms will be capable of being quite strong, given how hot we'll get. In addition, steering currents are very weak, so flash flooding could be real concern- but again, overall coverage will be very low. I have gone close to guidance. By Mon, we're fully entrenched in the hot air mass. Highs should be near 90 statewide. Sea breezes won't do much good to cool the air, since they'll increase humidity.
For Tue, I went close to guidance on temps, maybe just a smidge lower to compensate for potential cloud cover. Highs once again generally near 90, maybe low 90s along I 91. Regarding t-storms, I left them out of the fcst for the daytime, but ramped them up to scattered coverage at night. Usually storms die at night, but they can sustain themselves when we have a very hot day.
For Wed, I followed the same general temp rule as Tue. I think we cool a few notches, because clouds will increase. I think showers and storms become likely, and we very well could have svr wx this day. It's hard to even try to talk about that this far out, but right now, Wed looks like the best day for that. Highs should generally be in the mid to upper 80s, w/plenty of humidity!
Finally, for Thu, I went 3-5 deg below guidance. Numerous t-storms should limit temp rise, although the air mass is super warm and humid. So obviously, if there is more sun, it would be warmer than what I have here. For now, I have highs of 80-85.
Strong to severe storms could linger for much of the 4th of Jul weekend. It seems nature wants to provide its own fireworks show this yr! We may even have to watch the tropics, as an anomalously strong tropical wave plows thru the Atlantic. The same type of pattern that is conducive to HHH wx and t-storm chances here is also conducive to recurving tropical systems up the coast... stay tuned!
No time for graphics today.. See u next week!