Disc: A strong cold front will move through the region tonight. This front will be accompanied by rounds of showers. Around midnight or so, a very strong line of storms will move through the region. Along and behind this line, winds could gust in excess of 40 MPH.
Currently: Cold front located near Columbus, OH, with low pressure attached to it. This will be the focal point for our weather tonight.
Tonight: Not sure how many tricks vs treats there will be with this forecast, but we'll try to be correct! Much warmer and wetter than normal! When the ghoulish line of storms passes through, winds will howl and witches will go flying on their brooms! Most of the severe weather should stay off to our west. However, winds will still be strong and gusty along and behind the cold frontal passage, as winds could gust to 40 MPH and higher at times. Much of the state is under wind advisories or high wind warnings. Consult products from your local NWS Office. I'm going to go 5 degrees or so below all guidance, because guidance has been running at least 5 degrees too warm behind the frontal passage all along this storm. So daybreak temperatures should be in the mid 40s, with a few low 40s in the NW hills.
Tomorrow: A much more fall-like regime sets in. Guidance is in pretty good agreement, so generally followed. Expect high temperatures in the upper 50s, with a gusty breeze.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: The biggest question mark for Saturday will be cloud cover. A cold front goes through, but it's a weak front, and there really is very little moisture to work with. Yet it also doesn't take much to spark a band of mid or high level clouds this time of year. If we get clouds, temperatures would be 5 to 7 degrees colder than currently forecast. This is reflected in the difference between the NAM and GFS guidance. I have not gone as low as the NAM, because the NAM goes fully overcast, and I do not believe that will happen. However, the mosunny/sunny advertised by the GFS is probably too optimistic. So I'll split the difference and go for highs near 50.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): Expect a largely quiet long term period with generally moderating temperatures. Other than a few sprinkles Tuesday night or early Wednesday, the period should generally be precipitation-free. It should be noted that any locations that did not yet have their first freeze probably will by Monday morning.
As far as temperatures through the long term, from Sunday through Tuesday, I generally went close to guidance, which means temperatures should warm a few degrees each day- low 50s Sunday, mid 50s Monday, and mid to upper 50s Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, I went 3 to 5 degrees below guidance, and a couple degrees below guidance for Thursday. This is in deference to cold air advection not being picked up properly by models at this lead time. This yields highs in the low to mid 50s on Wednesday, and only in the mid to upper 40s on Thursday!
It should be noted that just outside of our long term, in the Friday to Saturday (11/8-9) time frame. there is a potential storm system tracking somewhere near the eastern seaboard. There could be the potential for some frozen precipitation with this system. Obviously, this time of year, climatology favors the NW Hills, but stay tuned!
Looking further into the long range, it looks like we could see a very cold shot after the 11/8-9 storm threat. Beyond that, temperatures generally moderate. After all, it is November, not January! However, there is also VERY Cold air in the long range just north of the Canadian border. Looking at positioning of that air mass and atmospheric teleconnections, I wouldn't be surprised if some of that cold air breaks off before Thanksgiving!
Now, let's take a look at some weather systems slated to affect the region during this time frame. We'll do something a little different this time, given that the pattern is not so active. I'll post tonight's cold front and then a "pattern map" for some insight into the long range. On this map, you can see the frontal rains crossing the Delaware River and headed for the area. This will be the "wild" part of the night!
Currently: Cold front located near Columbus, OH, with low pressure attached to it. This will be the focal point for our weather tonight.
Tonight: Not sure how many tricks vs treats there will be with this forecast, but we'll try to be correct! Much warmer and wetter than normal! When the ghoulish line of storms passes through, winds will howl and witches will go flying on their brooms! Most of the severe weather should stay off to our west. However, winds will still be strong and gusty along and behind the cold frontal passage, as winds could gust to 40 MPH and higher at times. Much of the state is under wind advisories or high wind warnings. Consult products from your local NWS Office. I'm going to go 5 degrees or so below all guidance, because guidance has been running at least 5 degrees too warm behind the frontal passage all along this storm. So daybreak temperatures should be in the mid 40s, with a few low 40s in the NW hills.
Tomorrow: A much more fall-like regime sets in. Guidance is in pretty good agreement, so generally followed. Expect high temperatures in the upper 50s, with a gusty breeze.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: The biggest question mark for Saturday will be cloud cover. A cold front goes through, but it's a weak front, and there really is very little moisture to work with. Yet it also doesn't take much to spark a band of mid or high level clouds this time of year. If we get clouds, temperatures would be 5 to 7 degrees colder than currently forecast. This is reflected in the difference between the NAM and GFS guidance. I have not gone as low as the NAM, because the NAM goes fully overcast, and I do not believe that will happen. However, the mosunny/sunny advertised by the GFS is probably too optimistic. So I'll split the difference and go for highs near 50.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): Expect a largely quiet long term period with generally moderating temperatures. Other than a few sprinkles Tuesday night or early Wednesday, the period should generally be precipitation-free. It should be noted that any locations that did not yet have their first freeze probably will by Monday morning.
As far as temperatures through the long term, from Sunday through Tuesday, I generally went close to guidance, which means temperatures should warm a few degrees each day- low 50s Sunday, mid 50s Monday, and mid to upper 50s Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, I went 3 to 5 degrees below guidance, and a couple degrees below guidance for Thursday. This is in deference to cold air advection not being picked up properly by models at this lead time. This yields highs in the low to mid 50s on Wednesday, and only in the mid to upper 40s on Thursday!
It should be noted that just outside of our long term, in the Friday to Saturday (11/8-9) time frame. there is a potential storm system tracking somewhere near the eastern seaboard. There could be the potential for some frozen precipitation with this system. Obviously, this time of year, climatology favors the NW Hills, but stay tuned!
Looking further into the long range, it looks like we could see a very cold shot after the 11/8-9 storm threat. Beyond that, temperatures generally moderate. After all, it is November, not January! However, there is also VERY Cold air in the long range just north of the Canadian border. Looking at positioning of that air mass and atmospheric teleconnections, I wouldn't be surprised if some of that cold air breaks off before Thanksgiving!
Now, let's take a look at some weather systems slated to affect the region during this time frame. We'll do something a little different this time, given that the pattern is not so active. I'll post tonight's cold front and then a "pattern map" for some insight into the long range. On this map, you can see the frontal rains crossing the Delaware River and headed for the area. This will be the "wild" part of the night!
The next map is the GFS ensemble package, valid November 10. Look at the cold air over the region and note the ridging over Alaska! A sampling of the analog years leads me to believe there are cold times ahead!
Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
