Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
What a weekend! After a beautiful Saturday which featured some isolated showers late, we had an even better Sunday with seasonable temperatures and low humidity. Summer heat will return this week, and as we move further into July we gradually climb toward the peak of summer warmth. Let's dive in.
Mid-July Climatology
Before looking at what should be a mostly quiet week ahead, let's take a quick look at what's normal for this time of year. July is our warmest month historically, which makes sense as summer reaches its apex.
As of today, July 12, the average high/low temperature at BDL (Hartford) is 85/64, and those averages continue to rise gradually until we peak in the coming week. Officially, BDL will hit its highest average high temperature of 85.6 on July 15 and then hold for a few days before we see a decline starting July 23. At Bridgeport, we reach our highest average high temperature of 83.8 on July 16, and begins to decline on July 26.
Of course, we can get plenty hot after the peak of the season--averages are just averages after all--but the climate record is clear: much like a roller coaster, usually after that brief but extended moment at the top, the descent is fast. We're not quite marching toward Fall yet, but it's coming...
The Week Ahead
The nice temperature regime from this weekend will be a distant memory this week as a big ridge of high pressure currently bringing historic heat to places like Montana and Utah shifts east. We will not get the worst of the heat by a long shot, but our predominant flow will change, reintroducing heat and humidity to the region.
What a weekend! After a beautiful Saturday which featured some isolated showers late, we had an even better Sunday with seasonable temperatures and low humidity. Summer heat will return this week, and as we move further into July we gradually climb toward the peak of summer warmth. Let's dive in.
Mid-July Climatology
Before looking at what should be a mostly quiet week ahead, let's take a quick look at what's normal for this time of year. July is our warmest month historically, which makes sense as summer reaches its apex.
As of today, July 12, the average high/low temperature at BDL (Hartford) is 85/64, and those averages continue to rise gradually until we peak in the coming week. Officially, BDL will hit its highest average high temperature of 85.6 on July 15 and then hold for a few days before we see a decline starting July 23. At Bridgeport, we reach our highest average high temperature of 83.8 on July 16, and begins to decline on July 26.
Of course, we can get plenty hot after the peak of the season--averages are just averages after all--but the climate record is clear: much like a roller coaster, usually after that brief but extended moment at the top, the descent is fast. We're not quite marching toward Fall yet, but it's coming...
The Week Ahead
The nice temperature regime from this weekend will be a distant memory this week as a big ridge of high pressure currently bringing historic heat to places like Montana and Utah shifts east. We will not get the worst of the heat by a long shot, but our predominant flow will change, reintroducing heat and humidity to the region.
Above: An EPS projection of the 500mb heights over much of North America by Tuesday afternoon. Note that the center of the ridge is to our west and we're once again on the line of a ring of fire pattern. This time, it may keep the storms to our north with some possible exceptions.
Monday
Tomorrow will continue our dry period but we will see increasing temperatures and humidity levels. There's an outside chance a place like BDL hits 90, but I think for most of us the mid to upper 80s will be where we land. Chance of showers/storms looks very low.
Tuesday-Thursday
This is the period where another heat wave is possible, especially inland. We will see the heat and humidity ramp up in a big way, and highs in the mid to upper 90s are possible inland on Tuesday and Wednesday. Combine that with high to oppressive humidity and heat advisories are possible for heat indices near to just over 100. Now, this isn't anything like the big heat wave we recently had around July 4th, but heat is heat if you're not staying hydrated and practicing heat safety guidance. Just be a little extra cautions, and for those sensitive to bad air quality be prepared for some poorer air quality potential on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tuesday will have strong to severe thunderstorms well to our north in Canada and Northern New England, and it doesn't look like the risk will extend down here. Wednesday could bring a greater risk of storms, but for now, it's just something we will keep an eye on.
Monday
Tomorrow will continue our dry period but we will see increasing temperatures and humidity levels. There's an outside chance a place like BDL hits 90, but I think for most of us the mid to upper 80s will be where we land. Chance of showers/storms looks very low.
Tuesday-Thursday
This is the period where another heat wave is possible, especially inland. We will see the heat and humidity ramp up in a big way, and highs in the mid to upper 90s are possible inland on Tuesday and Wednesday. Combine that with high to oppressive humidity and heat advisories are possible for heat indices near to just over 100. Now, this isn't anything like the big heat wave we recently had around July 4th, but heat is heat if you're not staying hydrated and practicing heat safety guidance. Just be a little extra cautions, and for those sensitive to bad air quality be prepared for some poorer air quality potential on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tuesday will have strong to severe thunderstorms well to our north in Canada and Northern New England, and it doesn't look like the risk will extend down here. Wednesday could bring a greater risk of storms, but for now, it's just something we will keep an eye on.
Above is a GFS plot of possible temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday. Expect 90s each day including down to the shore. Thursday likely brings our last day of 90s for the area, but temperatures should be coming off their peak by this point.
Friday-Sunday
Being on the edge of the ring of fire pattern, if the ridge shifts a little we could be in for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms as ripples of energy move fast through the steering flow. That looks possible as a trough tries to develop toward the end of the forecast period and the ridge gets suppressed south.
However, for now, there doesn't look to be a locked in heightened risk of showers/storms, just increasing chances generally. Temperatures will fall below 90, but still remain in the seasonable to seasonably warm range. Humidity should drop briefly after the heat breaks, but we start warming back up pretty quickly--as is usually the case during the peak of summer.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Tuesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s and a touch cooler at the coast wherever there is a sea breeze. Chance of storms 10%.
Wednesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s and a touch cooler at the coast wherever there is a sea breeze. Chance of storms 30%.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of storms 10%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of storms 20%.
Sunday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of storms 40%
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Friday-Sunday
Being on the edge of the ring of fire pattern, if the ridge shifts a little we could be in for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms as ripples of energy move fast through the steering flow. That looks possible as a trough tries to develop toward the end of the forecast period and the ridge gets suppressed south.
However, for now, there doesn't look to be a locked in heightened risk of showers/storms, just increasing chances generally. Temperatures will fall below 90, but still remain in the seasonable to seasonably warm range. Humidity should drop briefly after the heat breaks, but we start warming back up pretty quickly--as is usually the case during the peak of summer.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Tuesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s and a touch cooler at the coast wherever there is a sea breeze. Chance of storms 10%.
Wednesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s and a touch cooler at the coast wherever there is a sea breeze. Chance of storms 30%.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of storms 10%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of storms 20%.
Sunday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of storms 40%
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
