TkaThe summer, Bermuda ridge, HHH pattern if you will, is in the process of returning, but also may not last much more than 6-10 days, but we'll see.
I want to "congratulate" the GFS for being hands-down the best model to handle the coastal low of yesterday and early today. It was consistently the furthest east and won handily. Whether this is truly the GFS being superior, or just working out because it's always the furthest east, remains to be seen.
Tonight: Skies continue to clear w/loss of diurnal cumulus and coastal low heading further away. We should be able to at least radiate some, so I went just a tad under guidance. Lows should generally be in the low 60s, except mid 60s along the S coast and in urban centers.
Tomorrow: It will be hotter, but we will still have low humidity. Expect high temps in the mid to upper 80s. This is pretty much right in line w/guidance.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: For Sat's temps, I undercut guidance by a few degrees. There is fairly deep-layer onshore flow, so I find it hard to believe that we'll achieve NBM temps. It will be a touch more humid, but the humidity will still be a bit less than normal for the time of yr. Look for highs around 80-85.
Long Term: The general theme thru the long term period is a typical summer pattern. T-storm chances will revolve around any potential frontal zones that get near the area. Models, as usual, are bouncing around w/this. I will do my best to try to produce the most accurate solution here.
For Sunday, a warm front will approach the state. There is a very slight chance of thunderstorms late Sat night into early Sun morning. This chance appears too low to include in the fcst at this time. Later in the day, as the actual boundary approaches the area, there appears to be a better chance of t-storms. Even so, the chance is probably only in the "widely scattered" category. The one thing we do have going is that the timing does appear to coincide w/diurnal heating. So I will include in the fcst. W/the boundary not clearing the area until later in the day, I went a few deg below guidance. So expect highs in the low 80s.
For Monday, models have trended to keep the onshore flow going another day. So I went 3-5 deg lower than NBM guidance. It is hard to imagine 90+ in NYC, for example, on a SE wind. So expect highs in the low 80s, and maybe not even hitting 80 at the immediate S coast (S of the Merritt, and draw a line E of 91 in line w/the Merritt, if it continued E). W/no boundaries nearby, and stable onshore flow, I have kept a dry fcst.
For Tuesday, there are signs that we may still have some onshore flow, but it may abate by afternoon. Therefore, I compromised a bit and still went a touch under guidance, but closer to it than previous days. This allows for highs of 80-85. The airmass could flare up an isolated t-storm by late in the day, so slight chances are included. T-storms could become more numerous as a dying cold front approaches.
For Wednesday, we should completely clear out of any onshore flow and be completely under the influence of the Bermuda Ridge. Temps and humidity will rise, as a result. Followed guidance closely here, and expect highs in the mid to upper 80s. It is not incoceiveable that localized sea breeze boundaries or any leftover boundaries could fire up a t-storm, but right now the chance is too low to include in the fcst.
For Thursday, once again followed temp guidance pretty closely. Temps look similar to Wed, maybe a deg or two warmer. There look to be not even any sea breezes along the S coast, and w/no frontal boundaries in the picture, I cannot see any chances for t-storms, so a dry fcst will be maintained.
No graphics today, since we don't really have any solid systems to track.
I do want to comment that the tropics could get active for our area, maybe around Aug 15-20. Track will determine on our upper air pattern. Some models have a general trough over the Eastern CONUS, which would mean either out to sea or a GOM track. Others keep us in the Bermuda Ridge pattern, which could mean more of an east coast threat- way too early to tell, stay tuned!
Take care and see you next week!