The parade of weak cold fronts trying to advance into the Western Atlantic Ridge and intrusions of warm and humid weather. I do suspect that the overall strength of the heat ridges may be weaker with time, but after all, it is getting into the second half of August now!
For tonight, we're actually in a drier air mass, at least relative to what has been going on, so that would lead one to believe that temperatures will be able to get cooler than previous nights. However, clouds will be on the increase from SW to NE. Therefore, the Northeast corner of the state will probably see the coolest temperatures. Overall, low temperatures should be from the mid 60s to around 70. As far as precipitation chances.. a warm front approaches from the SW tonight. There is a chance of a round of showers and imbedded thunderstorms along this front, near or just before dawn in the far western portions of the state. These showers should dissipate as they encounter more stable air. I usually use I 91 as a boundary separating Western and Eastern CT. This time the showers may stay along and west of US 7!
For tomorrow, high temperatures could be a little tricky, because the day will be dominated by clouds and showers/thunderstorms. Areas that get a good respite between storms and see a good period of sun could sneak into the mid 80s. However, most areas will stay in the low 80s. As far as precipitation, it will be difficult to time the different areas of precipitation and localize them into the forecast. However, given this is day 1, I have to do it. So, my best guess... there is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the far Northeast portion of the state. Leftover energy from the dissipated morning showers may trigger a few isolated cells in that area. The rest of the state will likely have to wait until nighttime, as in after 10 PM, for a more solid line of thunderstorms to traverse the state, as a shortwave approaches.
Heading into Friday, temperatures will be warmer and the humidity will be higher, since we'll be on the other side of the warm front. There isn't really much of a trigger for thunderstorms, but there is still some instability in the far western portions of the state, so a widely scattered "heat of the day" type thunderstorm is possible in those areas. High temperatures on Friday should be in the mid to upper 80s.
For the weekend, if you're looking for a day free of precipitation chances, Saturday is the better of the two days. There is some instability that it wouldn't be hard to imagine a thunderstorm developing in the hills on Saturday, but the chance is so low, it's probably best to leave it out of the forecast for now. High temperatures on Saturday should be in the 80 to 85 degree range.
A slow-moving cold front approaches the area on Sunday. Recently, it has seemed that all cold fronts move precariously slow as they approach the area. This is because of the strength and position of the Bermuda-Azores ridge and the resistance it creates when a front approaches, which results in the fronts slowing to a crawl and even frontolysis (the death of a front). This front is stronger than its predecessors, so I do not expect this front to die a long, slow death, but rather just slow down, as it needs to climb the crest of the ridge. What this does is, instead of just a quick round of thunderstorms ahead of fronts, it creates several opportunities for thunderstorms. So, there could be a round of thunderstorms late in the day on Sunday, perhaps followed by a weaker, second round late at night Sunday night. This second round appears more likely out east. Anyway, high temperatures on Sunday should be in the low 80s. But again, away from the coast, any areas that get several hours of sun could sneak into the mid 80s.
For early next week, starting with Monday, model guidance has been trending drier with Monday. Part of me wants to call for showers and thunderstorms Monday due to recent trends. However, since almost all model runs are dry and cooler for Monday, we'll show the front going through and keep Monday dry. In fact, all of early next week should be dry and pleasant right through Wednesday, with high temperatures in the 80 to 85 degree range on Monday and then near 80 Tuesday and Wednesday. It is possible that much of the state actually gets into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings! However, longer range guidance is starting to show hints of that nasty Bermuda Azores Ridge nudging west again! It may be deja vu all over again, Yogi!
One extra note to this package, Tropical Storm Fiona has formed over the Far Eastern Atlantic. Most of the guidance sends her out to sea, but there are a few model products that bring her close to the East Coast in 10-14 days. With very warm SST (Sea Surface Temperatures), a tropical system could be sustained stronger than average at this latitude. We'll keep our eyes on Fiona, as she treks the Atlantic Ocean looking for Shrek!
Let's now take a look at tomorrow's thunderstorms. This is a map showing tomorrow evening's thunderstorm threat.
For tonight, we're actually in a drier air mass, at least relative to what has been going on, so that would lead one to believe that temperatures will be able to get cooler than previous nights. However, clouds will be on the increase from SW to NE. Therefore, the Northeast corner of the state will probably see the coolest temperatures. Overall, low temperatures should be from the mid 60s to around 70. As far as precipitation chances.. a warm front approaches from the SW tonight. There is a chance of a round of showers and imbedded thunderstorms along this front, near or just before dawn in the far western portions of the state. These showers should dissipate as they encounter more stable air. I usually use I 91 as a boundary separating Western and Eastern CT. This time the showers may stay along and west of US 7!
For tomorrow, high temperatures could be a little tricky, because the day will be dominated by clouds and showers/thunderstorms. Areas that get a good respite between storms and see a good period of sun could sneak into the mid 80s. However, most areas will stay in the low 80s. As far as precipitation, it will be difficult to time the different areas of precipitation and localize them into the forecast. However, given this is day 1, I have to do it. So, my best guess... there is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the far Northeast portion of the state. Leftover energy from the dissipated morning showers may trigger a few isolated cells in that area. The rest of the state will likely have to wait until nighttime, as in after 10 PM, for a more solid line of thunderstorms to traverse the state, as a shortwave approaches.
Heading into Friday, temperatures will be warmer and the humidity will be higher, since we'll be on the other side of the warm front. There isn't really much of a trigger for thunderstorms, but there is still some instability in the far western portions of the state, so a widely scattered "heat of the day" type thunderstorm is possible in those areas. High temperatures on Friday should be in the mid to upper 80s.
For the weekend, if you're looking for a day free of precipitation chances, Saturday is the better of the two days. There is some instability that it wouldn't be hard to imagine a thunderstorm developing in the hills on Saturday, but the chance is so low, it's probably best to leave it out of the forecast for now. High temperatures on Saturday should be in the 80 to 85 degree range.
A slow-moving cold front approaches the area on Sunday. Recently, it has seemed that all cold fronts move precariously slow as they approach the area. This is because of the strength and position of the Bermuda-Azores ridge and the resistance it creates when a front approaches, which results in the fronts slowing to a crawl and even frontolysis (the death of a front). This front is stronger than its predecessors, so I do not expect this front to die a long, slow death, but rather just slow down, as it needs to climb the crest of the ridge. What this does is, instead of just a quick round of thunderstorms ahead of fronts, it creates several opportunities for thunderstorms. So, there could be a round of thunderstorms late in the day on Sunday, perhaps followed by a weaker, second round late at night Sunday night. This second round appears more likely out east. Anyway, high temperatures on Sunday should be in the low 80s. But again, away from the coast, any areas that get several hours of sun could sneak into the mid 80s.
For early next week, starting with Monday, model guidance has been trending drier with Monday. Part of me wants to call for showers and thunderstorms Monday due to recent trends. However, since almost all model runs are dry and cooler for Monday, we'll show the front going through and keep Monday dry. In fact, all of early next week should be dry and pleasant right through Wednesday, with high temperatures in the 80 to 85 degree range on Monday and then near 80 Tuesday and Wednesday. It is possible that much of the state actually gets into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings! However, longer range guidance is starting to show hints of that nasty Bermuda Azores Ridge nudging west again! It may be deja vu all over again, Yogi!
One extra note to this package, Tropical Storm Fiona has formed over the Far Eastern Atlantic. Most of the guidance sends her out to sea, but there are a few model products that bring her close to the East Coast in 10-14 days. With very warm SST (Sea Surface Temperatures), a tropical system could be sustained stronger than average at this latitude. We'll keep our eyes on Fiona, as she treks the Atlantic Ocean looking for Shrek!
Let's now take a look at tomorrow's thunderstorms. This is a map showing tomorrow evening's thunderstorm threat.
You can see this cluster of thunderstorms basically covers the entire state of CT, with the exception being the far NE corner, but they'll likely get them in the next frame.
Next, let's take a look at the system slated to affect the state Sunday afternoon.
Next, let's take a look at the system slated to affect the state Sunday afternoon.
Once again, the state gets good coverage of thunderstorms. For now, ignore the random, lighter-shaded areas. They could be model noise. Models have a poor track record of placing areas of convection that far out. Of course, some areas will get more than others, but it is ridiculous trying to say who is going to get more or less precipitation in a convective setup that far out.'
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
