, fThe well-advertised more typical summer weather pattern has kicked in. Now that we've gotten that out of the way, the next thing to do will be to predict temperatures correctly and correctly predict the various waves that may (or may not) bring thunderstorms to the area. The second of these tasks is more daunting than the first.
Currently: A very weak cold front is moving through the Eastern Great Lakes right now. This front approaches tonight. Most models keep the area dry, but we do have to keep an eye on ongoing convection over E PA. I'll address that in the next section.
Tonight: Convection associated with the weak cold front over E PA approaches later tonight. For now, I feel the best way to call it is just a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly along the I 84 corridor and points north. A rogue shower could make it a tier south and east of there, but there should be nothing at all generally along a line East of New Haven and south of I 84 (most of SE CT). As far as temperatures, guidance is in pretty good agreement, and a night like tonight is not a night to really argue with a guidance consensus, so will stay close to most guidance, and call for lows in the mid 60s in most places.
Tomorrow: Another sunny, very warm to hot day. Guidance is in excellent agreement. With plenty of sun and gridded data being a bit warmer than guidance, I can raise it by just a degree across the board. This yields fairly uniform high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the state.
Tomorrow Night/Friday: Again, not a whole lot going on. For now, I'll keep Friday's forecast dry. A very weak impulse (even weaker than tonight's), approaches the area tomorrow night. This system has literally no moisture to work with, and right now, feel chances of anything happening are too low to mention in the forecast. Precipitation from the next, stronger system, should not reach the area yet. So we'll play it dry. For temperatures, generally more of the same, regarding guidance vs reality and the like. However, the air mass aloft is a degree or so warmer on Friday. Someone along the I 91 corridor may make a run at 90.
Long term- the weekend and beyond: Two systems affect the area during this period. The first system of concern is over the weekend. There are three chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. The first comes Later Friday night into Saturday morning, with a warm front. A cold front then approaches the area later Saturday, before stalling near the area. This should be the focal point for more showers and thunderstorms later in the day Saturday, and then another diurnally-driven (heat of the day) round of storms on Sunday. This generally leaves relatively fair weather Saturday night. However, with a warm air mass in place and a frontal system nearby, you can never rule out the chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm at any time.
It should be noted that the GFS is fairly dry through this entire time, with just drips and drabs. It should also be noted that the GFS was dry for yesterday morning for most of my area, yet close to an inch of rain fell. So the GFS precipitation algorithms should be taken with a rather large grain of salt, especially in convective environments.
The next system of concern is a cold front later Tuesday. Again, the GFS precipitation algorithms are only depicting drips and drabs, but I don't really use them too much for that type of a system. Although I will note that that system has less punch than its predecessor, so it could have something of a clue.
As for temperatures in the long term, expect very warm weather with increased levels of humidity over the weekend, then a cooler, breezy early next week, followed by a bit of a rebound in temperatures. Overall, my temperature thinking is something like this:
Saturday: Upper 80s
Sunday: in the 80s, a wide range from low 80s up north to upper 80s in the cities and along the south coast.
Monday: low 80s
Tuesday: mid to upper 80s
Wednesday: mid to upper 80s (maybe a 90 along the I 91 corridor)
Now, let's take a look at a graphical interpretation of some systems slated to affect the area this week. First, we'll look at the weekend. The map shown below is valid late Saturday night. You can notice showers and thunderstorms moving southeast and exiting the S coast.
Currently: A very weak cold front is moving through the Eastern Great Lakes right now. This front approaches tonight. Most models keep the area dry, but we do have to keep an eye on ongoing convection over E PA. I'll address that in the next section.
Tonight: Convection associated with the weak cold front over E PA approaches later tonight. For now, I feel the best way to call it is just a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly along the I 84 corridor and points north. A rogue shower could make it a tier south and east of there, but there should be nothing at all generally along a line East of New Haven and south of I 84 (most of SE CT). As far as temperatures, guidance is in pretty good agreement, and a night like tonight is not a night to really argue with a guidance consensus, so will stay close to most guidance, and call for lows in the mid 60s in most places.
Tomorrow: Another sunny, very warm to hot day. Guidance is in excellent agreement. With plenty of sun and gridded data being a bit warmer than guidance, I can raise it by just a degree across the board. This yields fairly uniform high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the state.
Tomorrow Night/Friday: Again, not a whole lot going on. For now, I'll keep Friday's forecast dry. A very weak impulse (even weaker than tonight's), approaches the area tomorrow night. This system has literally no moisture to work with, and right now, feel chances of anything happening are too low to mention in the forecast. Precipitation from the next, stronger system, should not reach the area yet. So we'll play it dry. For temperatures, generally more of the same, regarding guidance vs reality and the like. However, the air mass aloft is a degree or so warmer on Friday. Someone along the I 91 corridor may make a run at 90.
Long term- the weekend and beyond: Two systems affect the area during this period. The first system of concern is over the weekend. There are three chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. The first comes Later Friday night into Saturday morning, with a warm front. A cold front then approaches the area later Saturday, before stalling near the area. This should be the focal point for more showers and thunderstorms later in the day Saturday, and then another diurnally-driven (heat of the day) round of storms on Sunday. This generally leaves relatively fair weather Saturday night. However, with a warm air mass in place and a frontal system nearby, you can never rule out the chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm at any time.
It should be noted that the GFS is fairly dry through this entire time, with just drips and drabs. It should also be noted that the GFS was dry for yesterday morning for most of my area, yet close to an inch of rain fell. So the GFS precipitation algorithms should be taken with a rather large grain of salt, especially in convective environments.
The next system of concern is a cold front later Tuesday. Again, the GFS precipitation algorithms are only depicting drips and drabs, but I don't really use them too much for that type of a system. Although I will note that that system has less punch than its predecessor, so it could have something of a clue.
As for temperatures in the long term, expect very warm weather with increased levels of humidity over the weekend, then a cooler, breezy early next week, followed by a bit of a rebound in temperatures. Overall, my temperature thinking is something like this:
Saturday: Upper 80s
Sunday: in the 80s, a wide range from low 80s up north to upper 80s in the cities and along the south coast.
Monday: low 80s
Tuesday: mid to upper 80s
Wednesday: mid to upper 80s (maybe a 90 along the I 91 corridor)
Now, let's take a look at a graphical interpretation of some systems slated to affect the area this week. First, we'll look at the weekend. The map shown below is valid late Saturday night. You can notice showers and thunderstorms moving southeast and exiting the S coast.
The next image is valid late Monday night. Take a look at all the precipitation approaching along the I 80 corridor that extends all the way to Nebraska! At this time, most modeling sweeps this front through, so we wouldn't be looking at a long-duration event. However, it should be pointed out that fronts have had a tendency to stall and with a large ridge offshore, it would meteorologically support a potential stalling. If that happens, a return of our days of rain would be at hand! Stay tuned!
That's all for now! I'll see you again next week!
-GP!
-GP!
