Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Our first taste of summer of the year resulted in our first 90 degree day for inland locations yesterday and a warm, but not oppressive Sunday with highs in the 80s across Connecticut. At this hour some scattered rain showers associated with an advancing cold front is are departing, heralding a return to more seasonable temperatures.
The week ahead looks relatively calm, and as we head into the holiday weekend there is a fair amount of uncertainty on what the weather will look like. Let's dive in!
Our first taste of summer of the year resulted in our first 90 degree day for inland locations yesterday and a warm, but not oppressive Sunday with highs in the 80s across Connecticut. At this hour some scattered rain showers associated with an advancing cold front is are departing, heralding a return to more seasonable temperatures.
The week ahead looks relatively calm, and as we head into the holiday weekend there is a fair amount of uncertainty on what the weather will look like. Let's dive in!
Above: the temperature departure so far for May. For the most part, we've been near normal with temperatures, though today and temperatures during the middle of the week might edge that up a touch.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week looks great. With the cold front advancing tonight we are going to see a significant drop in temperatures leading to a comfortable night. Monday and Tuesday will bring more seasonable temperatures, lower humidity, and sunny skies. Monday looks to be the coolest day of the period, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tuesday will see slightly warmer temperatures but it should still be nice with highs in the 70s. No rain is forecast through this period.
Wednesday-Thursday
We will see temperatures and conditions return to a summer-like feel, especially on Wednesday. At this time, Wednesday looks like our next best chance for inland highs to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, as we see ridge placement favoring warmth in advance of another cold front. Wednesday evening we could see some showers and storms as the front sags south, but it remains to be seen how much coverage we see with precipitation. The Euro looked a little more robust this afternoon, and keeps precipitation chances going into early Thursday depending on the timing of the front. It's something we'll be watching.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week looks great. With the cold front advancing tonight we are going to see a significant drop in temperatures leading to a comfortable night. Monday and Tuesday will bring more seasonable temperatures, lower humidity, and sunny skies. Monday looks to be the coolest day of the period, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tuesday will see slightly warmer temperatures but it should still be nice with highs in the 70s. No rain is forecast through this period.
Wednesday-Thursday
We will see temperatures and conditions return to a summer-like feel, especially on Wednesday. At this time, Wednesday looks like our next best chance for inland highs to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, as we see ridge placement favoring warmth in advance of another cold front. Wednesday evening we could see some showers and storms as the front sags south, but it remains to be seen how much coverage we see with precipitation. The Euro looked a little more robust this afternoon, and keeps precipitation chances going into early Thursday depending on the timing of the front. It's something we'll be watching.
Above: image from weathermodels.com showing European model projections of temperatures on Wednesday. As is usually the case this time of year, the shoreline is cooler due to the coastal influence of a cooler Long Island Sound.
Right now, Thursday looks warm but cooler than Wednesday with the front through the region. We should see generally sunnier conditions as the day progresses.
Right now, Thursday looks warm but cooler than Wednesday with the front through the region. We should see generally sunnier conditions as the day progresses.
Memorial Day Weekend (Friday-Monday)
Originally, the long range tried to show a wet period, as we are likely to see either a slow moving low develop to our south or a series of coastal lows. Now, the guidance is trying to coalesce around the slow moving low idea, but keeping the rainy activity to the south. There's still a lot of time to sort things out but at this point our initial forecast is for seasonable temperatures and partly cloudy conditions with the chance of rain increasing by Monday. Below is a GFS depiction of the holiday weekend, but keep in mind this is all still subject to change.
Originally, the long range tried to show a wet period, as we are likely to see either a slow moving low develop to our south or a series of coastal lows. Now, the guidance is trying to coalesce around the slow moving low idea, but keeping the rainy activity to the south. There's still a lot of time to sort things out but at this point our initial forecast is for seasonable temperatures and partly cloudy conditions with the chance of rain increasing by Monday. Below is a GFS depiction of the holiday weekend, but keep in mind this is all still subject to change.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland and upper 70s to low 80s at the shore (especially SE CT). Rain or thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon/evening. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy early followed by clearing. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain early 20%.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Memorial Day: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland and upper 70s to low 80s at the shore (especially SE CT). Rain or thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon/evening. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy early followed by clearing. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain early 20%.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Memorial Day: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Finally, it feels good to be back from the Midwest! As many of you know, last week I wasn't able to do a forecast because I was returning from a storm chase trip to the Midwest. Although there is certainly an thrill seeking part to chasing, there is also a lot to learn while forecasting and tracking the development of severe thunderstorms that helps when identifying severe weather around here. It was a great trip!
Enjoy this picture of a supercell in NW Kansas and video of strong inflow into the storm, which produced large hail and a landspout tornado.
Enjoy this picture of a supercell in NW Kansas and video of strong inflow into the storm, which produced large hail and a landspout tornado.
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Thank you for reading.
-DB
Thank you for reading.
-DB
