Disc: There will be some very chilly days in the upcoming period, but they will be interspersed with some warmer days as well- not too atypical for this time of year- but generally biased on the cool side, as we have seen in the last week or so.
Currently: A hybrid pseudo-tropical cyclone was located near Wilmington, NC, this afternoon. This system is responsible for the rain across mostly southern and eastern portions of the state today. High pressure near Mount Washington was keeping places further north and west dry. As the high shifts east, at least light rain should overspread most of the state, except maybe the far NW hills may only see a passing shower.
Tonight: Rain should be on a downward trend after midnight. A few showers or a period or two of rain may linger a few hours longer over southern & eastern sections, but all areas should see the rain end before morning. Guidance temperatures will be excepted verbatim, due to cloud cover, so 55 to 60 for lows.
Tomorrow: With downsloping flow and plenty of sunshine, I went near or above the warmest guidance sets. These types of days usually overperform with regard to high temperatures. My thinking is 75-80; overall, a very nice day!
Tomorrow Night/Thu: Thursday will feature one of these summer pushbacks I highlighted in my headliner. Again, I'll go with the warmer sets of guidance, given the atmospheric setup, but not over all guidance, since clouds will be increasing during the day. A strong cold front will move through late in the day. Models diverge as to whether or not this will produce any appreciable precipitation across the area. The NAM would make you think that the cold front does not exist, while the GFS has a pretty decent line of convection. Given two factors- first, a strong cold front like this may not produce precipitation everywhere, and second, that this year has rained whenever it could- I'll include a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the cold frontal passage. High temperatures should be quite warm, in the 80-85 degree range. This should also aide in the production of showers and thunderstorms.
Long Term- the weekend and beyond: A crisp air mass will move in for Friday and Saturday, on the heels of the aforementioned strong cold front. Friday's highs should be generally near 70, with Saturday's highs 70 to 75. In fact, Friday night's temperatures will be below 50 in the entire state, with some 30's showing up in the NW Hills... a true taste of fall!
On Sunday, the forecast becomes more problematic. The remnants of Hurricane Harvey will approach from the Southwest. Now, don't get scared and think that we are getting the kind of rain that Texas is getting. In fact, the forecast is pretty complicated as to whether or not we get rain and how much we get. Strong high pressure up north may suppress a lot of the moisture to the south and west. However, I am currently going with the grouping of models that brings more moisture into the area. My feeling is that the high will move out a bit quicker than progged and we're dealing with a former hurricane which will still be a moisture-laden storm, so I don't think it will have that much trouble punching into our area. For now, though, instead of jumping all in recklessly, let's take it step by step, and I'll say it is likely that the southwestern half of the state gets decent rains, and there's a chance of showers for the northeastern half of the state. The timing of this event is within a few hours of midnight Saturday night for starting time, then Sunday evening for end time. High temperatures are also tricky for Sunday, and could present something of a "reverse gradient", especially if it's raining hard in the Southwest and partly sunny in the northeast. For now, since I'm going cloudier and rainier than the majority of guidance (and the fact that guidance tends to be too warm on rainy days at this range- check today for an example), I'll go a few degrees cooler than guidance. Also, at this range, I won't try to get too cute with temperatures and just broadbrush lower 70s across the state.
Monday and Tuesday look fair with above normal temperatures in the wake of whatever happens with Hurricane Harvey's remnants. Temperatures could get quite warm, especially by Tuesday, with a downsloping setup in place. High temperatures should be 80-85 on Monday, with mid 80s for Tuesday. Another strong cold front should approach the area on Wednesday. This one could pack a more solid area of precipitation than Thursday's front, and also contain the coolest temperatures since last spring behind it.
The long range looks to feature a lot more of what I talked about in the headliner- occasional strong cold fronts, with showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundaries, with above normal temperatures in between, as the last vestiges of summer continue to fight the clock against an impending autumn.
One other note I'd like to make in closing: There is VERY cold air over southern and central Canada on the modeling over the next few weeks, and actually in current reality as well (so this isn't just modeled anymore). It is impossible to tell at this juncture when this "motherlode" will come down; however, it is there, and one of these days, it will make its move Southeastward. When it does, expect a very early, sudden burst of cold air!
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems affecting our area in the coming week. Once again, after today, the "main event" will be Harvey's remnants on Sunday, so to include two maps, I'll post a map of Saturday's low temperatures first. You can see the entire state is in the 50s, with 40s over the NW hills. Keep two things in mind: First, the actual "low" temperatures as modeled are a couple degrees lower than this (but there is no map available at that time). Second off, both timewise and spatially, these maps are "smoothed out"... so in reality, putting the entire state in 40s and the NW hills in the upper 30s is probably closer to reality.
Currently: A hybrid pseudo-tropical cyclone was located near Wilmington, NC, this afternoon. This system is responsible for the rain across mostly southern and eastern portions of the state today. High pressure near Mount Washington was keeping places further north and west dry. As the high shifts east, at least light rain should overspread most of the state, except maybe the far NW hills may only see a passing shower.
Tonight: Rain should be on a downward trend after midnight. A few showers or a period or two of rain may linger a few hours longer over southern & eastern sections, but all areas should see the rain end before morning. Guidance temperatures will be excepted verbatim, due to cloud cover, so 55 to 60 for lows.
Tomorrow: With downsloping flow and plenty of sunshine, I went near or above the warmest guidance sets. These types of days usually overperform with regard to high temperatures. My thinking is 75-80; overall, a very nice day!
Tomorrow Night/Thu: Thursday will feature one of these summer pushbacks I highlighted in my headliner. Again, I'll go with the warmer sets of guidance, given the atmospheric setup, but not over all guidance, since clouds will be increasing during the day. A strong cold front will move through late in the day. Models diverge as to whether or not this will produce any appreciable precipitation across the area. The NAM would make you think that the cold front does not exist, while the GFS has a pretty decent line of convection. Given two factors- first, a strong cold front like this may not produce precipitation everywhere, and second, that this year has rained whenever it could- I'll include a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the cold frontal passage. High temperatures should be quite warm, in the 80-85 degree range. This should also aide in the production of showers and thunderstorms.
Long Term- the weekend and beyond: A crisp air mass will move in for Friday and Saturday, on the heels of the aforementioned strong cold front. Friday's highs should be generally near 70, with Saturday's highs 70 to 75. In fact, Friday night's temperatures will be below 50 in the entire state, with some 30's showing up in the NW Hills... a true taste of fall!
On Sunday, the forecast becomes more problematic. The remnants of Hurricane Harvey will approach from the Southwest. Now, don't get scared and think that we are getting the kind of rain that Texas is getting. In fact, the forecast is pretty complicated as to whether or not we get rain and how much we get. Strong high pressure up north may suppress a lot of the moisture to the south and west. However, I am currently going with the grouping of models that brings more moisture into the area. My feeling is that the high will move out a bit quicker than progged and we're dealing with a former hurricane which will still be a moisture-laden storm, so I don't think it will have that much trouble punching into our area. For now, though, instead of jumping all in recklessly, let's take it step by step, and I'll say it is likely that the southwestern half of the state gets decent rains, and there's a chance of showers for the northeastern half of the state. The timing of this event is within a few hours of midnight Saturday night for starting time, then Sunday evening for end time. High temperatures are also tricky for Sunday, and could present something of a "reverse gradient", especially if it's raining hard in the Southwest and partly sunny in the northeast. For now, since I'm going cloudier and rainier than the majority of guidance (and the fact that guidance tends to be too warm on rainy days at this range- check today for an example), I'll go a few degrees cooler than guidance. Also, at this range, I won't try to get too cute with temperatures and just broadbrush lower 70s across the state.
Monday and Tuesday look fair with above normal temperatures in the wake of whatever happens with Hurricane Harvey's remnants. Temperatures could get quite warm, especially by Tuesday, with a downsloping setup in place. High temperatures should be 80-85 on Monday, with mid 80s for Tuesday. Another strong cold front should approach the area on Wednesday. This one could pack a more solid area of precipitation than Thursday's front, and also contain the coolest temperatures since last spring behind it.
The long range looks to feature a lot more of what I talked about in the headliner- occasional strong cold fronts, with showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundaries, with above normal temperatures in between, as the last vestiges of summer continue to fight the clock against an impending autumn.
One other note I'd like to make in closing: There is VERY cold air over southern and central Canada on the modeling over the next few weeks, and actually in current reality as well (so this isn't just modeled anymore). It is impossible to tell at this juncture when this "motherlode" will come down; however, it is there, and one of these days, it will make its move Southeastward. When it does, expect a very early, sudden burst of cold air!
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems affecting our area in the coming week. Once again, after today, the "main event" will be Harvey's remnants on Sunday, so to include two maps, I'll post a map of Saturday's low temperatures first. You can see the entire state is in the 50s, with 40s over the NW hills. Keep two things in mind: First, the actual "low" temperatures as modeled are a couple degrees lower than this (but there is no map available at that time). Second off, both timewise and spatially, these maps are "smoothed out"... so in reality, putting the entire state in 40s and the NW hills in the upper 30s is probably closer to reality.
Now, let's take a look at the remnants of Harvey, as modeled by the GFS model. Keep in mind, this model has a bias to be too dry and too far S & E at this range, as happened today. Even with this model's depiction, most of the state looks pretty wet, especially the southern half- so it's a pretty decent bet that Sunday will be wet.
That's all for now, from the soggy SCW weather center! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
-GP!
