Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
Before we begin, I want to say thank you to everyone who has sent well wishes my way. As you know, I’ve been absent for a few weeks to deal with very busy and uncertain times, but I want you to know that everything is fine and I’m ready for winter! We’re just a few days away from my first two week outlook!
Last time I wrote, it was October 30th. I provided a quick outlook for November, and I can only hope that I’m as accurate as I was then:
This November, I don’t see either dominating, at least in the first half of the month. I think that overall, we’re looking at a typical gradual step-down toward winter in Connecticut, with short and frequent oscillations between warm and cool early in the month, a transitional period that leans more directly toward below normal temperatures in the middle, and a more deliberate move toward colder than normal conditions in the last week to ten days of the month. I think that the long range ensembles, which are currently hinting at a push toward colder conditions by the middle of the month, may end up being a bit too fast with a quick change to consistent winter-like conditions.
That wasn’t a bad call. There were short and frequent changes in the early part of the month, but the last ten days have featured pretty warm temperatures instead of a period of below normal temperatures. The last part however, looks to be more accurate. The models did bring the arrival of winter too soon, and now, right on cue, the last ten days of the month are going to look and feel like winter.
Hopefully you enjoyed today. Winter is coming. Let’s start with our SCW period of interest—tomorrow and Monday.
Before we begin, I want to say thank you to everyone who has sent well wishes my way. As you know, I’ve been absent for a few weeks to deal with very busy and uncertain times, but I want you to know that everything is fine and I’m ready for winter! We’re just a few days away from my first two week outlook!
Last time I wrote, it was October 30th. I provided a quick outlook for November, and I can only hope that I’m as accurate as I was then:
This November, I don’t see either dominating, at least in the first half of the month. I think that overall, we’re looking at a typical gradual step-down toward winter in Connecticut, with short and frequent oscillations between warm and cool early in the month, a transitional period that leans more directly toward below normal temperatures in the middle, and a more deliberate move toward colder than normal conditions in the last week to ten days of the month. I think that the long range ensembles, which are currently hinting at a push toward colder conditions by the middle of the month, may end up being a bit too fast with a quick change to consistent winter-like conditions.
That wasn’t a bad call. There were short and frequent changes in the early part of the month, but the last ten days have featured pretty warm temperatures instead of a period of below normal temperatures. The last part however, looks to be more accurate. The models did bring the arrival of winter too soon, and now, right on cue, the last ten days of the month are going to look and feel like winter.
Hopefully you enjoyed today. Winter is coming. Let’s start with our SCW period of interest—tomorrow and Monday.
Wind Advisories are up for coastal Connecticut tomorrow morning through Monday evening, as a very strong cold front will push through the region and an area of low pressure forms along it. The low will move to our north, and the lingering moisture will produce a burst of snow in the northwest hills tomorrow morning, and the chance of show showers across the state tomorrow night into Monday. You can already see things taking shape to our west with the cold front.
Sunday/Monday
Sunday will begin with the cold front pushing through the state. With warm temperatures aloft and at the surface, we will see everyone start with rain. Over the course of the overnight hours however, the northwest hill towns and other portions of western Connecticut will see the temperatures aloft drop enough to change things over to a brief mix and then snow. I expect this to be a relatively brief period of steady snow, but the guidance has been more bullish recently. Even without a steady thump all day, we should see on and off snow showers through much of the day in western and northwest Connecticut, any of which could drop a quick coating if it falls quickly enough. For the northwest hill towns however, I am more concerned that we’ll see accumulating snow early on. It doesn’t look plowable, but I think with the combination of dropping temps and snow the roads will be slick. Take it easy out there tomorrow morning.
Monday looks to be the best day for the rest of the state to see snowflakes, as brisk northwest flow brings the chance of snow showers. It will be windy and cold, bringing wintry appeal even if there isn’t much accumulation from this second round of snow. Wind chills Sunday and Monday will make it feel much colder than it actually is.
Let’s take a look at what some of the guidance is depicting.
18z GFS
Sunday will begin with the cold front pushing through the state. With warm temperatures aloft and at the surface, we will see everyone start with rain. Over the course of the overnight hours however, the northwest hill towns and other portions of western Connecticut will see the temperatures aloft drop enough to change things over to a brief mix and then snow. I expect this to be a relatively brief period of steady snow, but the guidance has been more bullish recently. Even without a steady thump all day, we should see on and off snow showers through much of the day in western and northwest Connecticut, any of which could drop a quick coating if it falls quickly enough. For the northwest hill towns however, I am more concerned that we’ll see accumulating snow early on. It doesn’t look plowable, but I think with the combination of dropping temps and snow the roads will be slick. Take it easy out there tomorrow morning.
Monday looks to be the best day for the rest of the state to see snowflakes, as brisk northwest flow brings the chance of snow showers. It will be windy and cold, bringing wintry appeal even if there isn’t much accumulation from this second round of snow. Wind chills Sunday and Monday will make it feel much colder than it actually is.
Let’s take a look at what some of the guidance is depicting.
18z GFS
The GFS as a global model may be limited in seeing what happens at elevation locations, but I think the overall depiction is right. We’ll see rain changing to snow in northwest and western Connecticut tomorrow morning, followed by rain showers in other parts of the state before temperatures cooperate for periods of light snow late Sunday into Monday.
18z 4km NAM
18z 4km NAM
Here, you see a period of rain overnight that transitions to snow in northwest and western CT early on Sunday. I think this may be overdone, but the NAM depicts (accurately in my opinion) lingering snow showers in the western part of the state, rain/snow showers across the rest of the state during the day, with a shift to widespread snow showers Sunday night into Monday.
Note--the latest NAM came in very bullish. I'm not buying it right now, but I do think there is bust potential here.
18z RGEM
Note--the latest NAM came in very bullish. I'm not buying it right now, but I do think there is bust potential here.
18z RGEM
Another one of my chosen high resolution models, the RGEM, is less bullish on snow across the rest of the state, but shows a period of snow in the northwest portion of the state, followed by snow showers by Monday across the state as cold air dominates.
Although relatively isolated, given the snowfall potential in the northwest portion of the state, we are issuing our first map of the season.
- I’m going with with a coating to an inch in the lower elevation locations in Litchfield and northern Fairfield Counties. I have a lower confidence area of coatings to an inch in the higher elevations of eastern Connecticut.
- I expect 1-3 inches in the higher elevation and further north locations in Litchfield County, with an outside chance that a location or two lollipops higher than that.
- For the rest of the state, there is a greater chance of snow showers as cold air advects in on Sunday and we see snow showers through Monday. I'm not expecting a lot of accumulation outside of a coating. Though some spots could get lucky under a heavier returns. Regardless of where you are, it’ll feel like winter.
Although relatively isolated, given the snowfall potential in the northwest portion of the state, we are issuing our first map of the season.
Tuesday/Wednesday
This period looks cold, dry, and boring, so not much needs to be said. The wind should die down and we’re looking at a period of below normal temperatures, though by Wednesday we’re warming up and watching the next storm, set to arrive just in time for Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving & Weekend
By Thanksgiving Day, we’re likely seeing a storm cut well to our northwest, but there could be some redevelopment off the coast on Friday. Right now, all I can confidently say is that there has been a signal for a storm for a while now, but the evidence suggests that this is just a rain event.
There is the chance that enough cold air is in place early on to bring a brief period of snow or mixed precipitation though before a changeover to rain, but that seems like a low probability deal right now. Stay tuned in case things change.
The weekend looks nice and mostly dry right now. We’ll be watching for the chance of a weak low crossing the region on Saturday, but I’m not concerned about that at all right now.
We’ll be around for updates if they are needed tonight and tomorrow. Send us your reports and pictures! They are helpful and might even be featured here on our Facebook page and Twitter @SouthernCTWX.
Please like, share, and ask questions. We love to hear from you!
The dailies:
Sunday: Rain early changing to snow in northwest CT and western CT. Rain/snow mix elsewhere, changing to scattered snow showers. Windy, with gusts between 30-50mph. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 90%.
Monday: Windy and cold, with scattered snow showers. Little to no accumulation expected in most spots. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 50%.
Tuesday: Sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday: Sunny and chilly. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Thanksgiving Day: Wintry mix early changing to rain. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Friday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 10%.
Sunday (Bonus day!): Sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low 40s.
Thanks for reading!
-DB
This period looks cold, dry, and boring, so not much needs to be said. The wind should die down and we’re looking at a period of below normal temperatures, though by Wednesday we’re warming up and watching the next storm, set to arrive just in time for Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving & Weekend
By Thanksgiving Day, we’re likely seeing a storm cut well to our northwest, but there could be some redevelopment off the coast on Friday. Right now, all I can confidently say is that there has been a signal for a storm for a while now, but the evidence suggests that this is just a rain event.
There is the chance that enough cold air is in place early on to bring a brief period of snow or mixed precipitation though before a changeover to rain, but that seems like a low probability deal right now. Stay tuned in case things change.
The weekend looks nice and mostly dry right now. We’ll be watching for the chance of a weak low crossing the region on Saturday, but I’m not concerned about that at all right now.
We’ll be around for updates if they are needed tonight and tomorrow. Send us your reports and pictures! They are helpful and might even be featured here on our Facebook page and Twitter @SouthernCTWX.
Please like, share, and ask questions. We love to hear from you!
The dailies:
Sunday: Rain early changing to snow in northwest CT and western CT. Rain/snow mix elsewhere, changing to scattered snow showers. Windy, with gusts between 30-50mph. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 90%.
Monday: Windy and cold, with scattered snow showers. Little to no accumulation expected in most spots. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 50%.
Tuesday: Sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday: Sunny and chilly. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Thanksgiving Day: Wintry mix early changing to rain. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Friday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 10%.
Sunday (Bonus day!): Sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low 40s.
Thanks for reading!
-DB
