Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
June 1 is a big day in the weather world. It heralds the start of meteorological summer, which runs until the end of August, marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is expected to be another active one, and also signals a climatological shift toward more active weather as our pattern usually begins to evolve toward a more summery disposition.
Our May was a gloomy one, with an abundance of cloud cover and a barrage of wet weekend systems. At the official Hartford station (BDL) temperatures finished right around normal, but we had our 3rd wettest May on record. At Bridgeport, looking back at meteorological spring, 44 out of 90 days had at least light rain.
On cue, our rinse, dry, and repeat pattern is cycling right back to dry. Although tonight we have some lingering showers, the next few days look predominantly sunny and dry. This time however, we will have a ridge of high pressure building in that will take our temperatures up and give us a taste of summer. Our first 90 degree day is on the table later in the week. That said, our wet pattern is not breaking yet. More rain is in the forecast for the upcoming weekend. Let's dive in.
June 1 is a big day in the weather world. It heralds the start of meteorological summer, which runs until the end of August, marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is expected to be another active one, and also signals a climatological shift toward more active weather as our pattern usually begins to evolve toward a more summery disposition.
Our May was a gloomy one, with an abundance of cloud cover and a barrage of wet weekend systems. At the official Hartford station (BDL) temperatures finished right around normal, but we had our 3rd wettest May on record. At Bridgeport, looking back at meteorological spring, 44 out of 90 days had at least light rain.
On cue, our rinse, dry, and repeat pattern is cycling right back to dry. Although tonight we have some lingering showers, the next few days look predominantly sunny and dry. This time however, we will have a ridge of high pressure building in that will take our temperatures up and give us a taste of summer. Our first 90 degree day is on the table later in the week. That said, our wet pattern is not breaking yet. More rain is in the forecast for the upcoming weekend. Let's dive in.
Above: European Ensemble (EPS) depiction of the 500mb pattern in the week ahead. The week is dominated by a transient ridge that will introduce our first real summer heat of the season.
Monday-Tuesday
Although Sunday was nice for most, we finally get rid of the showers and warm up some for Monday. We should have partly to mostly sunny skies, though there will likely be a haze as wildfire smoke from the west lingers over the region. Fortunately, models project the smoke to stay well above the surface and not significantly impact air quality Monday, and temperatures tomorrow should land in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tuesday looks like an even better day, with temperatures warming up to the upper 70s and low 80s with more sunshine as high pressure begins to nose in.
Monday-Tuesday
Although Sunday was nice for most, we finally get rid of the showers and warm up some for Monday. We should have partly to mostly sunny skies, though there will likely be a haze as wildfire smoke from the west lingers over the region. Fortunately, models project the smoke to stay well above the surface and not significantly impact air quality Monday, and temperatures tomorrow should land in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tuesday looks like an even better day, with temperatures warming up to the upper 70s and low 80s with more sunshine as high pressure begins to nose in.
Above: In the daylight images of the gif above you can see the expanse of wildfire smoke over the eastern U.S. creeping its way into the region. That impacted our sunset tonight and is likely to remain over or nearby the region at least through tomorrow, though I'm thinking the smoke is with us for much of the week ahead. The key is how low it gets to the ground.
Wednesday-Friday
The peak of the warmup happens during this period of the week, as the ridge dominates our weather. Wednesday temperatures are likely to reach well into the 80s, with humidity rising but not looking too bad at this time. Inland areas as usual this time of year will be most likely to record the warmest temperatures.
Thursday and Friday are the days when we have the greatest shot at widespread 90s, and will have higher humidity. Thursday could be the best chance of 90 of those two days, but I'm still a bit skeptical especially if smoke is around filtering some of the sunlight and we have thunderstorms.
While Wednesday looks dry, we will start to see increasing shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday--pretty typical of summer weather--which will increase as a boundary attempts to reach the region. Given the heat and humidity likely, we will need to pay attention to possible severe storms.
Wednesday-Friday
The peak of the warmup happens during this period of the week, as the ridge dominates our weather. Wednesday temperatures are likely to reach well into the 80s, with humidity rising but not looking too bad at this time. Inland areas as usual this time of year will be most likely to record the warmest temperatures.
Thursday and Friday are the days when we have the greatest shot at widespread 90s, and will have higher humidity. Thursday could be the best chance of 90 of those two days, but I'm still a bit skeptical especially if smoke is around filtering some of the sunlight and we have thunderstorms.
While Wednesday looks dry, we will start to see increasing shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday--pretty typical of summer weather--which will increase as a boundary attempts to reach the region. Given the heat and humidity likely, we will need to pay attention to possible severe storms.
Above: 18z Euro depicting shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday and Friday afternoon as a boundary tries to approach. This boundary will influence our weekend.
Saturday-Sunday
Stop me if you've heard this before: rain chances this weekend. It has been an incredible unlucky stretch with our "rinse" portion of our pattern occurring on weekends, and it's looking like that stretch may continue in the weekend ahead. The aforementioned boundary may get hung up over the region, bringing the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and/or Sunday if the boundary doesn't clear. Nothing's set in stone yet, but it's something to watch. With both the GFS and Euro showing the boundary nearby, the odds of at least some precipitation on the weekend seem high.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Touch cooler at the shoreline.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Mid to upper 80s at the shoreline. Chance of thunderstorms 40%.
Friday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Mid to upper 80s at the shoreline. Chance of thunderstorms 40%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of storms 50%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of showers 30%.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
Saturday-Sunday
Stop me if you've heard this before: rain chances this weekend. It has been an incredible unlucky stretch with our "rinse" portion of our pattern occurring on weekends, and it's looking like that stretch may continue in the weekend ahead. The aforementioned boundary may get hung up over the region, bringing the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and/or Sunday if the boundary doesn't clear. Nothing's set in stone yet, but it's something to watch. With both the GFS and Euro showing the boundary nearby, the odds of at least some precipitation on the weekend seem high.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Touch cooler at the shoreline.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Mid to upper 80s at the shoreline. Chance of thunderstorms 40%.
Friday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Mid to upper 80s at the shoreline. Chance of thunderstorms 40%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of storms 50%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of showers 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
