Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
It’s a dreary late winter day on this Saturday, with seasonably cool temperatures and ample cloud cover across much of the state despite the calendar saying we’ve advanced into meteorological spring. While the calendar may say it’s spring, the forecast says otherwise with a chance of snow early next week. Let’s take a look at the details.
Sunday
Sunday is definitely the pick of the weekend. Should see mostly sunny skies and temps around 40, so enjoy your extra hour of daylight (don’t forget to spring your clocks forward before you go to bed tonight and change the batteries in your smoke detectors) and do something fun outside!
Monday-Tuesday
The third in a series of coastal storms then approaches to start off the workweek. Earlier in the week, we were looking at this as a Monday threat. Since then, it’s waffled around on the model guidance between being a hit and a miss, while gradually slipping backwards in time. The models now bring the storm to our east late Monday night into Tuesday so that the primary impacts are centered around Tuesday rather than Monday. While the models have come into a bit better agreement on us seeing at least some snow, there are still some differences in the evolution and track that will play a role in determining just how much snow we see.
Broadly, southern stream energy develops into a coastal system to our south, while at the same time, a strong northern stream trough drops into the east. The amount of interaction between these two features and any phasing that occurs will determine how far NW the eventual coastal system can go as well as how strong it is. Should we see a partial or even full phase, it’s likely that we will see a significant storm for at least part of the state, while a weaker or missed phase will keep heavier snow offshore with only lighter snows from the fringe of the system making it into the state.
Let’s see what some of these solutions look like. First, here’s a look at the 12z GGEM. This run had the least interaction between the streams of any of the midday guidance, and the result was a solution that only brought light snow to the state with heavier snows being confined to eastern MA. Notice how far east the center of the system is – this is worth pointing out because even in a situation where the storm escapes well out to sea we still get some light snow since the precipitation shield is modeled to be very broad.
It’s a dreary late winter day on this Saturday, with seasonably cool temperatures and ample cloud cover across much of the state despite the calendar saying we’ve advanced into meteorological spring. While the calendar may say it’s spring, the forecast says otherwise with a chance of snow early next week. Let’s take a look at the details.
Sunday
Sunday is definitely the pick of the weekend. Should see mostly sunny skies and temps around 40, so enjoy your extra hour of daylight (don’t forget to spring your clocks forward before you go to bed tonight and change the batteries in your smoke detectors) and do something fun outside!
Monday-Tuesday
The third in a series of coastal storms then approaches to start off the workweek. Earlier in the week, we were looking at this as a Monday threat. Since then, it’s waffled around on the model guidance between being a hit and a miss, while gradually slipping backwards in time. The models now bring the storm to our east late Monday night into Tuesday so that the primary impacts are centered around Tuesday rather than Monday. While the models have come into a bit better agreement on us seeing at least some snow, there are still some differences in the evolution and track that will play a role in determining just how much snow we see.
Broadly, southern stream energy develops into a coastal system to our south, while at the same time, a strong northern stream trough drops into the east. The amount of interaction between these two features and any phasing that occurs will determine how far NW the eventual coastal system can go as well as how strong it is. Should we see a partial or even full phase, it’s likely that we will see a significant storm for at least part of the state, while a weaker or missed phase will keep heavier snow offshore with only lighter snows from the fringe of the system making it into the state.
Let’s see what some of these solutions look like. First, here’s a look at the 12z GGEM. This run had the least interaction between the streams of any of the midday guidance, and the result was a solution that only brought light snow to the state with heavier snows being confined to eastern MA. Notice how far east the center of the system is – this is worth pointing out because even in a situation where the storm escapes well out to sea we still get some light snow since the precipitation shield is modeled to be very broad.
Next, here’s a look at the 12z GFS. The low is significantly further west than on the GGEM and so the eastern part of the state gets into the heavier snow bands at times. This solution would result in a warning level snowfall for the eastern portion of the state with advisory criteria in the western half. It’s worth pointing out that the GEFS ensembles are much further west than the operational run – the clustering from their midday run below shows that well and also shows that most of the spread is to the west of the mean, suggesting that the storm may continue to move further west. In fact, the Euro ensemble (but not the operational run) and the new 18z NAM shows just that, with warning level snows across the whole state.
It’s still a little early to be talking specifics, but I’m comfortable saying that the state should see at least some accumulating snowfall from late Monday evening through Tuesday, with the best chance for significant accumulations in the eastern portion of the state. We will continue to keep an eye on the models and should be able to get a snow map out to you by tomorrow evening at the latest, maybe earlier if everything comes to a consensus tonight. Stay tuned!
Wednesday-Friday
Aside from the potential for some lingering snow or rain showers on Wednesday, partly cloudy skies and seasonable temps are expected for the back half of your workweek, with highs generally into the lower 40s. We will see a bit more sunshine each day, but expect some clouds to stick around through the end of the week.
The Dailies
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 40s.
Monday: Increasing clouds with a slight chance of snow late. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: Snow likely, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday: A chance of snow or rain showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low 40s.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Assuming this doesn’t all shift out to sea overnight, we’ll be back tomorrow with a first call snow map. We’ve also got an exciting announcement on tap for tomorrow, so stay tuned! Thank you for reading SCW.
-SA
Wednesday-Friday
Aside from the potential for some lingering snow or rain showers on Wednesday, partly cloudy skies and seasonable temps are expected for the back half of your workweek, with highs generally into the lower 40s. We will see a bit more sunshine each day, but expect some clouds to stick around through the end of the week.
The Dailies
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 40s.
Monday: Increasing clouds with a slight chance of snow late. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: Snow likely, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday: A chance of snow or rain showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low 40s.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Assuming this doesn’t all shift out to sea overnight, we’ll be back tomorrow with a first call snow map. We’ve also got an exciting announcement on tap for tomorrow, so stay tuned! Thank you for reading SCW.
-SA
