As the header states, we are now fully into transition season- the days when it could be 80 degrees one day and snow the next, a.k.a. the most difficult forecasting time of the year! There is no snow coming, don't worry! It was just something I wrote as an attn getter!
Currently: Summertime looking wx map, w/a Bermuda high in charge. This time of yr, it doesn't stay in charge very long, however, and that will also be the case this time. A cold front, currently from about Fort Wayne, IN, to Lansing, MI will go thru tomorrow AM and end this pattern.
Tonight: Will go a few deg below guidance w/at least decent radiative conditions expected for the 1st 1/2 of the night. Lows should be in the 50s statewide. The cold front approaches and could touch off a sprinkle toward morning. But the chance for measurable precip is very low, so I left it out of the fcst.
Tomorrow: I went just a touch under guidance, as cold air advection commences. Skies should clear behind the front. Expect highs generally in the mid to upper 60s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sat looks kinda similar to last Sun, where we have an upper level low spinning behind a cold front. I have introduced about a 30% chance of showers, basically any time between sunrise and sunset. Diurnal showers will get going and impact the area, although much of the day will be dry. In light of what happened last Sun, and using that as a teaching tool, I went a few deg below guidance, and expect highs to be in the mid to upper 50s.
Long Term: The long term period is very unsettled, w/numerous systems producing precip chances across the state. Obviously, it is not going to be raining every minute, but the odds are higher for cloudy/rainy conditions during this time frame.
First, for Sun, clouds should increase, but the day is largely dry. Any overrunning rain should hold off until evening. Went fairly close to guidance on temps, just a touch under, due to increasing clouds faster than the NBM wants to. Highs generally near 60.
Models are not in good agreement beyond Sun, and for now, am using something of a model compromise to avoid big busts, until the models can sort themselves out and come into agreement. For Mon, the GFS is very aggressive w/overrunning moisture, esp Srn sections. Other models are not. Therefore, I will run w/a 40 POP for most of the state, but 50 on the S coast, and 30 far NE CT (where it might wait until later, as well). As for temps, I went 5-8 deg cooler than guidance. If we get precip, obviously temps will be cool. Even if we don't, winds are NE and we are OVC, so it isn't going to be warm. Get the jackets ready- highs barely over 50, except maybe mid 50s if the rain stays away!
For Tuesday, the GFS kicks the rain out of here real quick. Most of the other models have rain for at least part of the day. Given that the GFS has a fast bias, I will slow it down some. For Tuesday's POPs, I went 60 for the whole state. This will probably need to be refined, in terms of who gets higher POPs and who gets lower POPs, but for now, there's no point in being too cute. Temp guidance is the same and probably off by the same amount, so Tuesday's temps are identical to Mon's.
For Wednesday, most models have the potential nor'easter out to sea, but it is close enough to keep an eye on. Since some models and ensemble products bring this sys a lot closer, I have elected to go w/30 POPs for most of the state, to 40 down on the S coast. Though if there is one totally dry day next week, Wed has the best shot. For temps, still a few deg under guidance w/potential for a nor'easter. That's the "coruse of least regret", as it will likely verify warmer if the storm stays out to sea and colder if it comes up the coast. I have mid to upper 50s for highs for now.
For Thursday, yet another system will be approaching. This is another system whose evolution will need to be closely monitored. It probably initially tracks to our west. Thereafter, it could translate to a coastal, or even cut off over/near the area. I know it's early but I can justify 80 POPS for the entire state on Thu, as this one seems the most likely to give the area a soaking rain, no matter which track it takes. I went way under temp guidance for now since guidance is warm and we do not know the exact track of the system. This also keeps continuity with Wed's temps- mid to upper 50s.
The following weekend's wx depends highly on whether or not the cutoff low pulls away. By the end of the weekend, Halloween time, there are signs that a strong cold front will serve to both clear us out and bring in a cold shot to the area. But this is way too far out to get specific .
Here are a couple graphic shots of precip chances next week. They are from the GFS model. You can see the GFS has overrunning rain, esp S coast, Sun nite into most of Mon. Then it has a storm to our west late in the week, w/heavy rain.
Currently: Summertime looking wx map, w/a Bermuda high in charge. This time of yr, it doesn't stay in charge very long, however, and that will also be the case this time. A cold front, currently from about Fort Wayne, IN, to Lansing, MI will go thru tomorrow AM and end this pattern.
Tonight: Will go a few deg below guidance w/at least decent radiative conditions expected for the 1st 1/2 of the night. Lows should be in the 50s statewide. The cold front approaches and could touch off a sprinkle toward morning. But the chance for measurable precip is very low, so I left it out of the fcst.
Tomorrow: I went just a touch under guidance, as cold air advection commences. Skies should clear behind the front. Expect highs generally in the mid to upper 60s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sat looks kinda similar to last Sun, where we have an upper level low spinning behind a cold front. I have introduced about a 30% chance of showers, basically any time between sunrise and sunset. Diurnal showers will get going and impact the area, although much of the day will be dry. In light of what happened last Sun, and using that as a teaching tool, I went a few deg below guidance, and expect highs to be in the mid to upper 50s.
Long Term: The long term period is very unsettled, w/numerous systems producing precip chances across the state. Obviously, it is not going to be raining every minute, but the odds are higher for cloudy/rainy conditions during this time frame.
First, for Sun, clouds should increase, but the day is largely dry. Any overrunning rain should hold off until evening. Went fairly close to guidance on temps, just a touch under, due to increasing clouds faster than the NBM wants to. Highs generally near 60.
Models are not in good agreement beyond Sun, and for now, am using something of a model compromise to avoid big busts, until the models can sort themselves out and come into agreement. For Mon, the GFS is very aggressive w/overrunning moisture, esp Srn sections. Other models are not. Therefore, I will run w/a 40 POP for most of the state, but 50 on the S coast, and 30 far NE CT (where it might wait until later, as well). As for temps, I went 5-8 deg cooler than guidance. If we get precip, obviously temps will be cool. Even if we don't, winds are NE and we are OVC, so it isn't going to be warm. Get the jackets ready- highs barely over 50, except maybe mid 50s if the rain stays away!
For Tuesday, the GFS kicks the rain out of here real quick. Most of the other models have rain for at least part of the day. Given that the GFS has a fast bias, I will slow it down some. For Tuesday's POPs, I went 60 for the whole state. This will probably need to be refined, in terms of who gets higher POPs and who gets lower POPs, but for now, there's no point in being too cute. Temp guidance is the same and probably off by the same amount, so Tuesday's temps are identical to Mon's.
For Wednesday, most models have the potential nor'easter out to sea, but it is close enough to keep an eye on. Since some models and ensemble products bring this sys a lot closer, I have elected to go w/30 POPs for most of the state, to 40 down on the S coast. Though if there is one totally dry day next week, Wed has the best shot. For temps, still a few deg under guidance w/potential for a nor'easter. That's the "coruse of least regret", as it will likely verify warmer if the storm stays out to sea and colder if it comes up the coast. I have mid to upper 50s for highs for now.
For Thursday, yet another system will be approaching. This is another system whose evolution will need to be closely monitored. It probably initially tracks to our west. Thereafter, it could translate to a coastal, or even cut off over/near the area. I know it's early but I can justify 80 POPS for the entire state on Thu, as this one seems the most likely to give the area a soaking rain, no matter which track it takes. I went way under temp guidance for now since guidance is warm and we do not know the exact track of the system. This also keeps continuity with Wed's temps- mid to upper 50s.
The following weekend's wx depends highly on whether or not the cutoff low pulls away. By the end of the weekend, Halloween time, there are signs that a strong cold front will serve to both clear us out and bring in a cold shot to the area. But this is way too far out to get specific .
Here are a couple graphic shots of precip chances next week. They are from the GFS model. You can see the GFS has overrunning rain, esp S coast, Sun nite into most of Mon. Then it has a storm to our west late in the week, w/heavy rain.
That's all for now! See you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
