After a beautiful day today and another nice one tomorrow, the weather pattern looks to become unsettled and highly low-confidence and possibly widely fluctuating temperatures from day to day. More details below.
Currently: Not a whole lot going on at the moment across the Eastern United States. Only Maine is having unsettled weather today. The cold front from last night has moved all the way down to near Richmond, VA, and ridging is in control.
Tonight: With good radiational cooling conditions (diminishing wind, clear skies and only some high cirrus arriving toward daybreak), I'll side with the cooler guidance for tonight. Low temperatures should be within a few degrees of 40 statewide.
Tomorrow: The combination of increasing clouds and a developing onshore flow should keep readings several degrees cooler than today. The GFS has a bias of underestimating sea breeze effects, a function of its coarser resolution. However, sometimes the NAM overdoes things in that front. Therefore, I'll split the difference, with maybe a slight hedge toward the NAM. High temperatures should be in the 60 to 65 degree range.
Tomorrow Night/Friday: A system passing to the west should bring a round of rain to the state. The theme for the event appears to be a heavy burst of rain in the morning, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms the rest of the day, then more heavier rain at night. The GFS has trended significantly drier for this event, but that will be ignored for the time being, as it has a tendency to do that at this range, followed by correcting itself later on. As for temperatures, the same theme continues as Thursday, regarding the NAM and the GFS, so I used the same philosophy. This results in high temperatures within a few degrees of 60.
Long Term: The long term picture at this point is very muddled. Frontal boundar(ies) will remain close to the area, which could result in two things. First, whenever a frontal boundary is near, the weather tends to be more unsettled, as showers and thunderstorms tend to move along and near frontal boundaries. Secondly, it leads to a lot of uncertainty and potential high day to day variability in daily temperatures if the front wobbles a bit. Finally, it can lead to huge temperature busts if the frontal system is a little bit north or south of where it was progged. For now, I'll take my best stab at some dailies in the longer term.
Saturday: Sunny with a chilly wind and gusts in the 40-45 MPH range. High temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Sunday: Showers and possible thunderstorms. Very chilly with highs only 50-55.
Monday: Sunny but cool. Highs only in the mid 50s.
Tuesday: Chilly with a few light showers possible. Highs only in the low 50s.
Wednesday: A period of rain in the morning, breaks of some sun during the day. A few sprinkles possible later. A bit warmer. with highs approaching 60.
Now, let's take a look at a couple weather systems slated to affect the area, in graphical format. On this run, valid late Friday afternoon, the GFS has much of Connecticut in a dry slot. However, most models are not doing that, and it is not very easy to pinpoint where a dry slot will be this far out. So just picture this for what it's worth: There is a storm nearby and lots of rain all around, yielding to an unsettled day.
Currently: Not a whole lot going on at the moment across the Eastern United States. Only Maine is having unsettled weather today. The cold front from last night has moved all the way down to near Richmond, VA, and ridging is in control.
Tonight: With good radiational cooling conditions (diminishing wind, clear skies and only some high cirrus arriving toward daybreak), I'll side with the cooler guidance for tonight. Low temperatures should be within a few degrees of 40 statewide.
Tomorrow: The combination of increasing clouds and a developing onshore flow should keep readings several degrees cooler than today. The GFS has a bias of underestimating sea breeze effects, a function of its coarser resolution. However, sometimes the NAM overdoes things in that front. Therefore, I'll split the difference, with maybe a slight hedge toward the NAM. High temperatures should be in the 60 to 65 degree range.
Tomorrow Night/Friday: A system passing to the west should bring a round of rain to the state. The theme for the event appears to be a heavy burst of rain in the morning, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms the rest of the day, then more heavier rain at night. The GFS has trended significantly drier for this event, but that will be ignored for the time being, as it has a tendency to do that at this range, followed by correcting itself later on. As for temperatures, the same theme continues as Thursday, regarding the NAM and the GFS, so I used the same philosophy. This results in high temperatures within a few degrees of 60.
Long Term: The long term picture at this point is very muddled. Frontal boundar(ies) will remain close to the area, which could result in two things. First, whenever a frontal boundary is near, the weather tends to be more unsettled, as showers and thunderstorms tend to move along and near frontal boundaries. Secondly, it leads to a lot of uncertainty and potential high day to day variability in daily temperatures if the front wobbles a bit. Finally, it can lead to huge temperature busts if the frontal system is a little bit north or south of where it was progged. For now, I'll take my best stab at some dailies in the longer term.
Saturday: Sunny with a chilly wind and gusts in the 40-45 MPH range. High temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Sunday: Showers and possible thunderstorms. Very chilly with highs only 50-55.
Monday: Sunny but cool. Highs only in the mid 50s.
Tuesday: Chilly with a few light showers possible. Highs only in the low 50s.
Wednesday: A period of rain in the morning, breaks of some sun during the day. A few sprinkles possible later. A bit warmer. with highs approaching 60.
Now, let's take a look at a couple weather systems slated to affect the area, in graphical format. On this run, valid late Friday afternoon, the GFS has much of Connecticut in a dry slot. However, most models are not doing that, and it is not very easy to pinpoint where a dry slot will be this far out. So just picture this for what it's worth: There is a storm nearby and lots of rain all around, yielding to an unsettled day.
Now, let's fast forward about 48 hours later. We can see this little low over Southeastern Pennsylvania. This storm is going to produce a swath of overrunning precipitation along and just to its north. Exactly where that sets up is uncertain at this point, so I can't say for certain how much precipitation the area will get. However, be advised that some areas may get thunderstorms with small hail, since the freezing level will be unseasonably low.
Anyway, that's all for now! See you next time!
-GP!
-GP!
