Disc: It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood today, w/plenty of sun. The only little fly in the ointment is a sea breeze for the S coast.
Currently: High press nearly right overhead keeping the region dry. The high will slide east tonight, allowing low press currently over Alabama to head northeast.
Tonight: Clouds increase. Nearly neutral advection, so followed guidance closely. Lows generally near 40, but added some 30s in the Northern corners. They may just stay clear long enough to do it.
Tomorrow: Not the nicest Saint Pat's day ever. It will rain most of the day, if not all of the day. Rain will not be too heavy, but heavy enough to get wet. Categorical pops on S coast, likely elsewhere, just in case this doesn't get far enough North, but pretty sure it does.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: We clear out and Fri is a really beautiful day! I went under guidance to be conservative, just in case a sea breeze or clouds linger. But even then, I have low 60s. It could very well be warmer (and probably will be)!
Long Term: Rain events bookend the long term, w/nice wx in between.
For Sat, unsettled wx prevails. This sys has come into better focus. It now looks like a period of rain before dawn, then a break, then sct showers and tstorms in the aftn. Those will be the focal points for showers. Although I do have a chance at any hr. As for temps, I went close to, or just under guidance. I have mid 50s, for the most part. It should be noted, however, that if there is any sun, we will be warmer.
For Sun, nice behind the storm. If you can tolerate a few 35-40 MPH wind gusts, it'll be a nice day. Went very close to guidance, w/no glaring reason not to. Highs generally mid to upper 50s.
For Mon, nice day, but there are signs of onshore flow development in the wind barbs. For this reason, I went a bit below guidance, esp near the S coast. I have highs generally in the low 50s, except near 50 on the S coast, to mid 50s along the I 91 corridor.
For Tue, stronger flow ahead of the next sys, so onshore flow less of a worry. Could get some gusts to 35 MPH at times. Otherwise, highs generally low 50s for everyone- close to, or just a bit under, guidance. Clouds increase ahead of the next sys.
For Wed, the next sys approaches and this one could be a doozy! Model QPF avg is already 1-2" of rain. Looks like rain all day, w/a strong breeze. I am not too concerned about frozen pcpn, but it may not be completely out of the question for far Nrn zones to see some mixing to start and end. That may need to be looked at later, depending which way this trends. I went quite a bit below guidance w/clouds and rain. I have highs generally in the mid to upper 40s.
Longer range looks like there could be a fairly strong cold shot before the end of the month. Not too atypical for that to happen this time of yr!
Now, let's look at two graphics. I have one for tomorrow and one for Sat. Wed is too far away to post graphics yet. On tomorrow's map, you can see the state covered with rain and more to come. We'll rain, but it just won't be tons of rain, as the moisture source isn't that robust. The last image is the GFS for Saturday midday. I have this frame attached because it displays the two rounds of rain really well. You can see the first band leaving and the second batch approaching.
Currently: High press nearly right overhead keeping the region dry. The high will slide east tonight, allowing low press currently over Alabama to head northeast.
Tonight: Clouds increase. Nearly neutral advection, so followed guidance closely. Lows generally near 40, but added some 30s in the Northern corners. They may just stay clear long enough to do it.
Tomorrow: Not the nicest Saint Pat's day ever. It will rain most of the day, if not all of the day. Rain will not be too heavy, but heavy enough to get wet. Categorical pops on S coast, likely elsewhere, just in case this doesn't get far enough North, but pretty sure it does.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: We clear out and Fri is a really beautiful day! I went under guidance to be conservative, just in case a sea breeze or clouds linger. But even then, I have low 60s. It could very well be warmer (and probably will be)!
Long Term: Rain events bookend the long term, w/nice wx in between.
For Sat, unsettled wx prevails. This sys has come into better focus. It now looks like a period of rain before dawn, then a break, then sct showers and tstorms in the aftn. Those will be the focal points for showers. Although I do have a chance at any hr. As for temps, I went close to, or just under guidance. I have mid 50s, for the most part. It should be noted, however, that if there is any sun, we will be warmer.
For Sun, nice behind the storm. If you can tolerate a few 35-40 MPH wind gusts, it'll be a nice day. Went very close to guidance, w/no glaring reason not to. Highs generally mid to upper 50s.
For Mon, nice day, but there are signs of onshore flow development in the wind barbs. For this reason, I went a bit below guidance, esp near the S coast. I have highs generally in the low 50s, except near 50 on the S coast, to mid 50s along the I 91 corridor.
For Tue, stronger flow ahead of the next sys, so onshore flow less of a worry. Could get some gusts to 35 MPH at times. Otherwise, highs generally low 50s for everyone- close to, or just a bit under, guidance. Clouds increase ahead of the next sys.
For Wed, the next sys approaches and this one could be a doozy! Model QPF avg is already 1-2" of rain. Looks like rain all day, w/a strong breeze. I am not too concerned about frozen pcpn, but it may not be completely out of the question for far Nrn zones to see some mixing to start and end. That may need to be looked at later, depending which way this trends. I went quite a bit below guidance w/clouds and rain. I have highs generally in the mid to upper 40s.
Longer range looks like there could be a fairly strong cold shot before the end of the month. Not too atypical for that to happen this time of yr!
Now, let's look at two graphics. I have one for tomorrow and one for Sat. Wed is too far away to post graphics yet. On tomorrow's map, you can see the state covered with rain and more to come. We'll rain, but it just won't be tons of rain, as the moisture source isn't that robust. The last image is the GFS for Saturday midday. I have this frame attached because it displays the two rounds of rain really well. You can see the first band leaving and the second batch approaching.
Anyway, that's all for now! See you next time!
-GP!
-GP!
