As we head toward the climatologically hottest time of the year, the hottest pattern we've seen this summer is unfolding.
Currently: High pressure offshore is providing the area the warm weather, not atypical for this time of year. A cold front is approaching the Chicago area, with a prefrontal trough near Cleveland. This system will become the focal point for our weather beginning later tomorrow.
Tonight: Typical summer's evening. A very warm evening. Will go with the warmer guidance sets, the GFS' numbers, although the NAMs are not too far apart. I just don't see temperatures dropping too much with increasing humidity and not much of a radiational setup. So expect lows to generally be within a few degrees of 70, except a few cooler readings in the NW hills.
Tomorrow: Much more humid and not quite as warm, due to increasing clouds and possible onshore flow. A prefrontal trough approaches. Expect showers and thunderstorms with this feature. Since this feature is slow-moving and there will be plenty of moisture available, flooding rains are a concern. However, due to onshore flow, widespread severe weather is not expected. But any thunderstorm can pulse up and become briefly strong. As for timing, expect thunderstorms to be possible any time from mid afternoon on in the SW to dinnertime or so in the NE. Temperatures are tricky, dependent upon onshore flow and timing of thunderstorms, with a "non-normal" distribution possible if storms arrive late. My best guess is for highs to be near 80. Areas that see more sun could go a few degrees higher. I followed the warmer guidance sets for two reasons. First, models tend to overdo extent of precipitation ahead of a prefrontal trough. I also think models could be overdoing the onshore flow, at least initially. We'll also have a high starting point. Putting all those factors together makes me lean to the warmer guidance.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: Showers/storms continue tomorrow night on and off. Areas that get training heavy cells will likely have hydro concerns. Friday's overall forecast is a bit tricky. The GFS wants to dry us out real quickly on Friday. While the NAM and other guidance fires up more storms during the afternoon. The GFS has trended toward the NAM. Since we do have a cold front approaching and residual low level moisture, we should expect storms to flare up. The coverage will be much lower than that of Thursday. Since we do have some modest cold air advection and some storms should be flaring up, I'll go a degree or so cooler than most guidance. High temperatures should be 80 to 85 across the state.
Long Term: The long term looks to be pretty quiet, but the main concern will be increasing temperatures. There doesn't even appear to be much of a precipitation threat. Not much time was spent on the long term, because there really isn't much to spend time on. There is little to no threat of any precipitation during the long term, and guidance is in excellent agreement, so there really isn't any reason to deviate significantly from that either. As far as temperatures, this is what I am thinking at the moment:
Saturday: mid to upper 80s
Sunday: mid 80s
Monday: 80 to 85, possibly warmer in the CT valley
Tuesday: upper 80s
Wednesday: near 90, possibly higher in the CT valley
Nothing extremely remarkable in the long range. Overall, the pattern looks to be dominated by a heat ridge. However, there will also be the customary chance of showers and storms occurring every few days. There are some signs that the overall heat ridge may begin to break down, at least for a while, around the end of this month. But for now, that is so far out in fantasy land that it should be taken with a grain of salt.
Now, let's look at some of the systems slated to affect the area in graphical format. We'll just look at the guidance for tomorrow and Friday, because that is the only system that is really going to affect us during this forecast period.
As we can see on this map valid late tomorrow afternoon, there is rain over the entire NE CONUS, with something of a bullseye over SWCT. That bullseye may or may not be real, but the implied conclusion is that there could be very heavy rainfall somewhere with those storms.
Currently: High pressure offshore is providing the area the warm weather, not atypical for this time of year. A cold front is approaching the Chicago area, with a prefrontal trough near Cleveland. This system will become the focal point for our weather beginning later tomorrow.
Tonight: Typical summer's evening. A very warm evening. Will go with the warmer guidance sets, the GFS' numbers, although the NAMs are not too far apart. I just don't see temperatures dropping too much with increasing humidity and not much of a radiational setup. So expect lows to generally be within a few degrees of 70, except a few cooler readings in the NW hills.
Tomorrow: Much more humid and not quite as warm, due to increasing clouds and possible onshore flow. A prefrontal trough approaches. Expect showers and thunderstorms with this feature. Since this feature is slow-moving and there will be plenty of moisture available, flooding rains are a concern. However, due to onshore flow, widespread severe weather is not expected. But any thunderstorm can pulse up and become briefly strong. As for timing, expect thunderstorms to be possible any time from mid afternoon on in the SW to dinnertime or so in the NE. Temperatures are tricky, dependent upon onshore flow and timing of thunderstorms, with a "non-normal" distribution possible if storms arrive late. My best guess is for highs to be near 80. Areas that see more sun could go a few degrees higher. I followed the warmer guidance sets for two reasons. First, models tend to overdo extent of precipitation ahead of a prefrontal trough. I also think models could be overdoing the onshore flow, at least initially. We'll also have a high starting point. Putting all those factors together makes me lean to the warmer guidance.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: Showers/storms continue tomorrow night on and off. Areas that get training heavy cells will likely have hydro concerns. Friday's overall forecast is a bit tricky. The GFS wants to dry us out real quickly on Friday. While the NAM and other guidance fires up more storms during the afternoon. The GFS has trended toward the NAM. Since we do have a cold front approaching and residual low level moisture, we should expect storms to flare up. The coverage will be much lower than that of Thursday. Since we do have some modest cold air advection and some storms should be flaring up, I'll go a degree or so cooler than most guidance. High temperatures should be 80 to 85 across the state.
Long Term: The long term looks to be pretty quiet, but the main concern will be increasing temperatures. There doesn't even appear to be much of a precipitation threat. Not much time was spent on the long term, because there really isn't much to spend time on. There is little to no threat of any precipitation during the long term, and guidance is in excellent agreement, so there really isn't any reason to deviate significantly from that either. As far as temperatures, this is what I am thinking at the moment:
Saturday: mid to upper 80s
Sunday: mid 80s
Monday: 80 to 85, possibly warmer in the CT valley
Tuesday: upper 80s
Wednesday: near 90, possibly higher in the CT valley
Nothing extremely remarkable in the long range. Overall, the pattern looks to be dominated by a heat ridge. However, there will also be the customary chance of showers and storms occurring every few days. There are some signs that the overall heat ridge may begin to break down, at least for a while, around the end of this month. But for now, that is so far out in fantasy land that it should be taken with a grain of salt.
Now, let's look at some of the systems slated to affect the area in graphical format. We'll just look at the guidance for tomorrow and Friday, because that is the only system that is really going to affect us during this forecast period.
As we can see on this map valid late tomorrow afternoon, there is rain over the entire NE CONUS, with something of a bullseye over SWCT. That bullseye may or may not be real, but the implied conclusion is that there could be very heavy rainfall somewhere with those storms.
The next map I am showing is the NAM, valid Friday evening. Notice the thunderstorms crossing the CT Valley. If this is correct, there could be a quick line of storms moving through with the cold front Friday afternoon.
